POLITICO NIGHTLY: Peak season

By Renuka Rayasam Presented by WATCH — "Cases in the D.C. region are growing at a rapid pace," Joshua Sharfstein of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health told Krystal Campos . "In this region the peak is probably going to be in the next month to two months. It's probably going to stay pretty serious after the peak. I think you can have the impression, listening to people sometimes, that once we get to the peak, it's all good after that. And that is not the case." A New York-like outbreak in Maryland, Virginia and the District could cripple the federal response to the pandemic and disrupt unemployment checks and small-business loans across the country. The region already is experiencing the harsh effects of coronavirus, with more than 17,000 cases and 526 deaths. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition, a nightly intelligence brief from our global newsroom on the effect of the coronavirus on politics and policy, the economy and global health. Even my toddler is getting in on Zoom action with Elmo's playdate tonight. Reach out with tips: rrayasam@politico.com and @renurayasam.   A message from PhRMA: In these unprecedented times, America's biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: beating COVID-19. We are dedicating our top scientists and using our investments in new technologies to speed the development of safe and effective vaccines. Explore our efforts.   From the Health Desk TESTS DECREASE, WORRIES INCREASE — The number of coronavirus tests analyzed each day by commercial labs in the U.S. plummeted by more than 30 percent over the past week, even though new infections are surging in many states and officials are desperately trying to ramp up testing so the country can reopen, health care reporter David Lim writes. One reason for the drop-off: the narrow testing criteria that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last revised in March . The agency's guidelines prioritize hospitalized patients, health care workers and those thought to be especially vulnerable to the disease — such as the elderly. Health providers have been turning away others due to shortages of testing materials. It's not clear whether demand has peaked among the groups on the CDC's priority list. But after being overwhelmed for weeks, commercial labs say they now have unused testing capacity as they wait for samples to arrive. FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn told POLITICO today that the White House Coronavirus Task Force is considering whether changes to the testing criteria are warranted. "This is part of an ongoing discussion that we're having," he said. "People are working overtime on that one." The decrease in daily testing comes as more than 2.8 million Americans have been tested for coronavirus. New York leads the nation in per capita testing, with 16 percent of all tests given nationally. Patterson Clark's graphic shows which states are doing the most testing, as measured by population. Palace Intrigue MAVERICK RESPONSE — Billionaire entrepreneur and "Shark Tank" reality-TV star Mark Cuban is considering a late-stage presidential run as an independent because of Covid-19. He's been critical of Trump's handling of the crisis, arguing that rushing to open the economy before the virus subsides would unnecessarily sicken people — even as Trump said at today's coronavirus briefing that Cuban is on a committee the president is creating to guide the country's reopening. The owner of the NBA's Dallas Mavericks has continued to pay the team's hourly employees even as the basketball season was suspended last month, and he has called on other CEOs to prioritize their employees' well-being, saying that the pandemic will define their brand for decades. Your host spoke with Cuban today about what he would do if he were in charge right now. Our edited conversation: How do you think Trump is doing? It's an impossible position. No matter what you do you are not going to get it right. You can just do the best you can. I don't want to make it sound like I am throwing Trump under the bus. I'm not a fan, but no one could do it right. What's the first thing you would do if you were president today? The No. 1 thing I would do is pass a law defining responsibilities and authority for all federal roles. When everybody is a chief, nobody is a chief. I would eliminate the ability to just bring in random people whether they are related to you or otherwise to head up a task force. There is a job that everybody has, and right now they don't have the authority to do those jobs and that's created a lot of the problems. There's an old business rule that responsibility without authority means no results. How would you address unemployment? I don't think this is a V-shaped recovery, I think it's more like a U or W. I would expand the AmeriCorps program dramatically. I would create a testing and tracing infrastructure that would have a million jobs in it so we could maintain and support dealing with this pandemic and avoiding any future ones. How would you create a long-term framework for recovery? We have to figure out how to pay for it. I would institute a 12 percent robotics tax. Let's say you are replacing a welder, and your cost for that robot is $25 an hour. You would tax that robot the way you would tax that welder who was getting paid $25 an hour. I would mimic the Social Security tax, and I would take 9 percent of that and send it to Social Security and 3 percent to R&D because we're not the leader in robotics. Then I would do a cloud tax of 2 percent. The need for cloud services is only going to expand. The need for processing power is only going to expand.   TOMORROW - JOIN CONGRESSWOMAN ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ FOR A VIRTUAL PLAYBOOK: Join Playbook authors Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. EDT for an important virtual interview with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). to discuss how the coronavirus is impacting New York, efforts to make sure African American and Latino communities get essential economic relief, and the impact that this global economic and health crisis will have on the 2020 elections. Have a question for Rep. Ocasio-Cortez? Tweet it to @POLITICOLive using #AskPOLITICO. REGISTER HERE TO PARTICIPATE.     First In Nightly DRUG WAR — President Donald Trump has touted hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for those who contract the virus, and a sneak peek at this week's POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, to be released Wednesday, shows a sharp partisan divide on the anti-malarial drug, senior campaign and elections editor Steve Shepard writes. Overall, 46 percent of voters support using hydroxychloroquine before the drug has been fully vetted by the National Institutes of Health, while 33 percent want to wait until those trials are complete. But only 30 percent of Democratic voters support using hydroxychloroquine, compared to 71 percent of Republicans. Meanwhile, only 17 percent say they are likely to seek out the drug themselves, despite Trump saying that he might take it as a prophylactic against the virus. THROWING OUT THE PLAYBOOK — The Trump administration is launching a public relations campaign to defend its handling of the pandemic, but White House officials didn't heed their own preparedness plan from 2017, reports Alice Miranda Ollstein. The administration didn't meet its goals to stock up on testing supplies or stick to its plan of working with international partners — and Trump cut off U.S. funding to the World Health Organization today . The administration is arguing that its actions have saved lives. But early testing failures and cuts to international public health efforts confounded efforts to assess the threat from China and get a handle on the scope of the issue, Tucker Doherty reports.     Around the Nation NO LONGER GOLDEN — The year's unlikeliest political bromance is on the rocks, California Playbook senior writer Carla Marinucci reports. Trump keeps talking about reopening the country and the economy, and on Monday described his authority to do so as "total." But in California, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom warned today that he's putting on the brakes for a few weeks — at least. "We're not out of the woods yet,'' Newsom said in a briefing to lay out a West Coast strategy for reopening states. In it, he warned that "June, July and August" were no times for big weddings, concerts and gatherings. Any moves to relax the shutdown would depend on "science, not politics,'' he said, adding, "It's no time to be spiking the ball." Just days ago, Newsom was Trump's new BFF. "I've gotten very friendly with Gavin Newsom,'' Trump said last week. "He's done a very good job. He's been, I think, sort of a friend of mine for a long time." And the praise has been mutual, with Newsom saying of Trump that "every single direct request that he was capable of meeting, he has met." The relationship has worked for both men. Trump fast-tracked the Navy's Mercy hospital ship to Los Angeles, and Newsom snagged needed equipment like ventilators and masks — while announcing a consortium to procure more, and even distributing some ventilators and PPE to other desperate governors. Newsom's poll numbers are sky high in California— a stunning 85 percent approval, with even a majority of Trump voters giving him high marks. Newsom took the earliest action in the country to mandate a full shutdown of his state, a move widely credited with keeping infection and mortality rates low. Veteran California politics watchers like GOP strategist and Schwarzenegger alum Rob Stutzman say Newsom has been "incredibly disciplined'' in jettisoning partisanship to serve his state. The national spotlight has also bolstered long-running speculation regarding a future run for the White House by Newsom. Trump has even given the California governor a starring role in a new reelection campaign ad that argues for Trump's responsiveness to the state, and features Newsom praising Trump for sending "everything I could have hoped for" during the crisis. Newsom, asked to respond today to the shift in his relationship with the president after Trump's jabs at U.S. governors and their authority, wouldn't bite: "I'm not going there,'' he said. "We just want to get stuff done in the state of California — for 40 million Americans in California, specifically." Call in the mathematicians — Eric Schmidt, the ex-chairman and chief executive of Google, has one idea for opening state economies: start with businesses where people are least likely to spread the virus. He offered the example of a golf course, tech reporter Steven Overly writes. Because people are outdoors and relatively spread out, Schmidt told the Economic Club of New York today, the risk of disease transmission while golfing would likely be low. But governors are "flying blind" until they start crunching the numbers, he said. "I want to know precisely the question of, what's the incremental danger if I open up a golf course? Let's assume it's little. What's the incremental danger when we begin to open up sports activities that involve people being close together? Probably much higher." Rural rescue roadblock — Rural hospitals are in danger of running out of money as the coronavirus pandemic hits America's heartland, in part because of an oversight in the economic rescue package, health care reporter Rachel Roubein says in the latest episode of POLITICO Dispatch . "About one-third of rural hospitals are owned by their county or their city," Roubein says, which is a big problem if they apply for a stimulus loan: "Government-owned hospitals are not able to get the small-business loans that other small businesses are applying for. That's cash relief that they say is really needed." Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast Nightly Number 3 percent — The amount the global economy is expected to contract by in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the International Monetary Fund predicted today in its annual World Economic Outlook . "It is very likely that this year the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, surpassing that seen during the global financial crisis a decade ago," IMF Economic Counsellor Gita Gopinath wrote in the report. "The Great Lockdown, as one might call it, is projected to shrink global growth dramatically." (h/t trade reporter Adam Behsudi)   TOMORROW - THE LATEST ON CALIFORNIA AND COVID-19: Join California Playbook authors Carla Marinucci and Jeremy White tomorrow for a virtual briefing to discuss Gov. Gavin Newsom's deal to get 200 million protective masks per month. How exactly will the plan work and how will it impact other states? They will also discuss the complicated relationship between President Donald Trump and Newsom, which has gone from enmity to mutual praise. Finally, with the California state Legislature still somewhat in limbo after having pushed back its return to May, what legislation is expected to move in the meantime? Got questions? Pass them along at registration. REGISTER HERE TO PARTICIPATE.     Talking to the Experts What will oil demand look like a few months from now, and what will that mean for the U.S.? "Like every other industry, oil is dependent on the world conquering the Covid-19 pandemic. The sooner we recover, the sooner demand for oil will increase, though the market will also have to recover from the recent oil dispute between Saudi Arabia and Russia, where the Saudis flooded the market with supply while demand is at historic lows. Even with the best recovery estimates, such a de facto war on our producers — if left unchecked — could have taken months or even years for the industry to overcome, which is why it was so important for President Trump to intervene as he did. The pandemic aside, the next few months for oil depend in part on Saudi Arabia and others actually following through. However, a strong economic recovery coupled with responsible supply-side actions could make 2021 a strong year for the American oil industry." — Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), as told to energy reporter Zack Colman "As so many Americans are in self quarantine and are not working, there is less use of cars. The air has never looked cleaner, and auto related pollution has diminished, which is a plus for the environment." — Former House Energy and Commerce Chairman Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) Our question for our readers this week: How will you measure when this pandemic is over? What is your personal yardstick for a return to normalcy? Use the form to send us your responses, and we plan to feature several later this week. Parting Words RIPPLE EFFECT — Eli Okun's look at which sectors of the economy are hurting and which are thriving during the coronavirus pandemic turns up some surprise winners and losers . Without in-person interviews or digitized court records, private investigators are struggling to keep up. Elvis impersonators are also finding themselves joining the large population of the unemployed. On the other hand, sex doll companies have seen increased online traffic, and are hoping for more. "We do typically see a small boost when people get their tax returns," one company owner said. "Maybe with this $1,200, perhaps we would see some people spend it on that. I'm sure that's not what they intended."   A message from PhRMA: In these unprecedented times, America's biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: beating COVID-19. The investments we've made have prepared us to act swiftly: · Working with governments and insurers to ensure that when new treatments and vaccines are approved, they will be available and affordable for patients · Coordinating with governments and diagnostic partners to increase COVID-19 testing capability and capacity · Protecting the integrity of the pharmaceutical supply chain and keeping our plants open to maintain a steady supply of medicines for patients Explore our efforts.   Did someone forward you this email? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam   Follow us

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