Tuesday, October 1, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: Tim Walz, according to the people he beat

 

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By Liz Crampton

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz speaks to a gathered crowd of supporters.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz speaks to a gathered crowd of supporters during a campaign rally on Sept. 5 in Erie, Pennsylvania. | Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

MINNESOTA NOT-SO-NICE — Tim Walz talks. A lot.

That’s the shared observation from the Minnesota Republicans who challenged the Democratic vice presidential nominee throughout a political career that dates back nearly two decades. Walz’s tendency to opine at length, often using folksy language playing up his working-class, Midwestern roots, made him a popular figure in Democratic politics — and endlessly frustrated the Republicans who faced off against him in debates.

For JD Vance, who will debate him on Tuesday evening, those experiences are a cautionary tale. The Ohio senator is up against a seasoned debater who isn’t easily pinned down and who’s never lost an election. Vance, on the other hand, has less than two years in the Senate and relatively few debates under his belt.

It’s one reason Polymarket, one of the largest online prediction markets, gives Walz a 70 percent chance of winning the debate.

“He kinda takes the oxygen out of the room,” said Randy Demmer, who ran against Walz in a 2010 congressional race and lost. “He talks a stream — if you get him going, he keeps talking. He has a tendency to talk around issues, and quite frankly, it’s hard to get a good idea of what he said.”

“I call him ‘Word Salad Walz’ because he’ll talk and talk and talk and talk and when he gets flustered he talks really, really fast,” said Greg Peppin, who ran former Rep. Jim Hagedorn’s congressional campaigns against Walz in 2014 and 2016. Hagedorn later flipped the district in 2018 when Walz declined to run for reelection and pursued the governorship instead.

Some of Walz’s Republican rivals were so confounded that they dispensed with the Minnesota Nice approach when describing him. “The guy is totally dishonest, you can’t trust anything he says,” said Allen Quist, whom Walz beat in 2012 by more than 15 points. “That was the main difficulty I had in running against the guy, he would make things up as he went on.”

“He’s just going to say whatever is politically expedient, whether it’s true or not,” Quist said.

To help Vance prepare, Republicans brought in a fellow Minnesotan, GOP House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, to stand in for Walz during debate preparations. Emmer, who served in Congress with Walz, explained on Sunday that his role was getting Vance accustomed to Walz’s style.

“I spent the last month just going back, all of his old stuff, to get his phrases down, his mannerisms, that sort of thing,” Emmer said. “My job was to be able to play Tim Walz so JD Vance knows what he’s going to see.”

Expect to see Vance bring up the main attack line against Walz that has existed in Minnesota GOP circles since the dawn of his foray into politics: That the governor is a political chameleon and it’s difficult to discern what he truly stands for. Republicans go after Walz for flip flopping on gun rights, pointing to the National Rifle Association changing its rating of Walz from an ‘A’ to an ‘F.’ For his part, Walz has said that he backs Second Amendment rights but also supports background checks and red-flag policies, which he says are necessary to keep kids safe in schools.

“He’s a San Francisco liberal,” Peppin said. “The only difference between him and Gavin Newsom is Gavin Newsom has better hair.”

The comparison to the California governor, who is a frequent punching bag for Republicans, is a familiar part of GOP messaging against Walz. Emmer has described his home state governor as “Gavin Newsom in a flannel shirt ,” an attempt to portray Walz as being far more liberal than he presents.

Yet throughout his trajectory as a moderate-turned-progressive Democrat, Walz has defeated seven Republicans — in some races, by double-digit margins. But in others, he barely squeaked by, including when he was reelected to Congress for the final time in 2016 by just over 2,500 votes.

In the run-up to Tuesday’s debate, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has played the role of Vance, a fellow Midwesterner, in Walz’s debate prep. Buttigieg also acted as Vice President Mike Pence in Kamala Harris’ mock debate sessions in 2020.

“To his credit, Walz has been able to maneuver political pitfalls,” said Marty Seifert, former GOP state House leader. “The greatest policy criticism is waiting too long to call out the National Guard when the riots were going on day after day in Minneapolis. A huge, record breaking surplus was entirely spent and taxes raised on top of that, and social policies like having tampons provided in boy’s restrooms in schools, are not viewed as mainstream. But he’s quick on his feet, affable and knows his audiences well.”

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at lcrampton@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @liz_crampton .

ON THE HOME FRONT — POLITICO inks a partnership with Capitol AI to bring new AI features to POLITICO Pro. Subscribers later this year will be able to “create custom reports seamlessly by locating, organizing, and integrating our extensive library of political and policy reporting, intelligence, and analysis,” POLITICO EVP Rachel Loeffler said.

What'd I Miss?

— Ryan Routh pleads not guilty in alleged Trump assassination attempt: Ryan Routh, the man charged with an attempted assassination against former President Donald Trump, pleaded not guilty in federal court today. The arraignment in West Palm Beach lasted just three minutes as Routh’s attorney, Kristy Militello, entered the plea on his behalf to all five counts against him. She waived the reading of the charges and said the defense wanted a trial.

— California bans legacy admissions at all colleges: It will soon be illegal for public and private universities in California to consider an applicant’s relationship to alumni or donors when deciding whether to admit them. Gov. Gavin Newsom today signed a ban on the practice known as legacy admissions, a change that will affect prestigious institutions including Stanford University and the University of Southern California. California’s law, which will take effect Sept. 1, 2025, is the nation’s fifth legacy admissions ban, but only the second that will apply to private colleges.

— Biden: Congress ‘may have to’ come back to approve disaster funding: President Joe Biden said today he may ask Congress to return early from its preelection recess to pass supplemental disaster money to address the “broad and devastating impacts” of Hurricane Helene. “That is something I may have to request,” Biden said in brief remarks at the White House. He said he did not yet know how much money he would request and said “no decision has been made yet.” Biden also said he expects to travel to North Carolina as soon as Wednesday or Thursday, once a presidential visit would not be disruptive to the rescue and recovery effort.

Nightly Road to 2024

GOP VOTE BY MAIL LAGS In the past two election cycles, Republicans have been far less eager to vote by mail than Democrats — and their candidates have suffered because of it. This year, Republicans made Pennsylvania their target for flipping the trend, pledging more than $10 million to persuade G.O.P. voters there to vote by mail in the November election.

Early data from the secretary of state’s office shows that they still have a long way to go , reports the New York Times. As of today, Democrats in the state had requested about 881,000 mail ballots, and Republicans had requested 373,000, less than half of the Democratic total and only about a quarter of the total mail ballots requested in the state.

POLITICAL STORM — As Kamala Harris traveled back to Washington to be briefed on the Hurricane Helene aftermath, Donald Trump descended on a swing-state community ravaged by the storm today — and couldn’t resist his impulse to make the trip political . Standing before piles of bricks blown off a furniture store in Valdosta, Georgia, Trump repeated his false claim that President Joe Biden wouldn’t get on the phone with the state’s Republican governor — despite Gov. Brian Kemp saying he had spoken to the president a day earlier and appreciated the federal help his state has received.

AROUND THE WORLD

 National Rally party leader Marine Le Pen answers a question after the second round of the legislative election  July 7, 2024.

National Rally party leader Marine Le Pen answers a question after the second round of the legislative election July 7, 2024. | Louise Delmotte/AP

ON TRIAL — Polls suggest French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is closer than ever to winning the presidency. But a trial that begins today could upend her political future .

Le Pen, her National Rally party, and 26 other individuals — including current and former French lawmakers and MEPs are accused of embezzling European Parliament funds through what prosecutors called a “system” to award contracts for parliamentary assistants to individuals who mostly worked on party operations rather than European Union affairs in violation of EU rules. The alleged scheme took place between 2004 and 2016. Le Pen has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing.

The stakes are enormous for the three-time presidential candidate. If found guilty after the two-month trial, she could face a maximum sentence of 10 years behind bars and a fine of as high as €1 million. While a prison term of that length is unlikely, she also faces a possible five-year ban on running for public office that would prevent her from standing in the 2027 presidential election.

Le Pen has already said that she plans on running in that contest. A recent poll found that, if the presidential election were to be held today, Le Pen could receive up to 40 percent of the vote in the first round, depending on who ran against her. Le Pen scored a little over 23 percent in the last presidential race and went on to lose the runoff with 41 percent of the vote.

Nightly Number

Over 90,000

The number of Georgia residents forced to shelter in place today after a weekend fire that sent a massive plume of smoke into the air and led to complaints of a chemical smell and haze across some of metro Atlanta.

RADAR SWEEP

COPYRIGHTING RHYTHM — No matter how much you know about reggaeton, it’s likely that you are familiar with that unmistakable two-bar loop: boom ch-boom-chick. That sound is colloquially known as a dembow riddim, one of the most recognizable rhythmic patterns of a genre that has reshaped all of pop music in the last decade, writes Isabelia Herrera for Pitchfork . That loop is now the cornerstone of a landmark copyright lawsuit that argues some of reggaeton’s biggest stars have infringed on the copyright to the song “Fish Market.” If the plaintiffs win, artists would no longer be able to use one of reggaeton’s well-known rhythmic foundations without licensing it first — which could diminish the centrality of the genre’s signature rhythmic patterns and change the sound of reggaeton as we know it.

Parting Image

On this date in 1971: Japanese students hurl flaming Molotov cocktails at police, from a barricaded area they have built at the site of a proposed new airport, 60 miles from Tokyo. Fifty-two hundred leftist students and farmers opposed to the building of the airport fought pitched battles with police; three police were killed and many injured.

On this date in 1971: Japanese students hurl flaming Molotov cocktails at police, from a barricaded area they have built at the site of a proposed new airport, 60 miles from Tokyo. Fifty-two hundred leftist students and farmers opposed to the building of the airport fought pitched battles with police; three police were killed and many injured. | Toichi Sakakibara/AP

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