Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO Nightly: Is a Gaza ceasefire on the horizon?

Wednesday, April 10, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: Is a Gaza ceasefire on the horizon?

Humanitarian aid is airdropped to Palestinians over Gaza City on March 25. | Mahmoud Essa/AP Photo

TURNING POINT — Six months ago this week, Israel was burying almost 1,200 people who lost their lives when Hamas launched the bloodiest attack in the nation’s history. Now, in the wake of October 7, Palestinians are struggling to count their own dead, with reports that 1.7 million people in Gaza have been displaced and around 30,000 killed.

With geopolitical tensions soaring, diplomats locked in negotiations and unprecedented military maneuvers, anticipation is growing that the conflict could now be entering a new stage. The question is whether it will be one of relative peace, or even more bloodshed.

Over the weekend, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant confirmed his troops were withdrawing en masse from Gaza , pulling out of the ruined city of Khan Younis and maintaining their control of only a small corridor across the territory. With international condemnation building over the dire humanitarian conditions created by the offensive, even from allies like the U.S., there has been speculation the move could be a precursor to a ceasefire.

Gallant, however, insisted the movements were to ensure soldiers could resupply and train for an all-out assault on Rafah, the final stronghold over which they haven’t taken control. Washington, along with the E.U. and the U.N., has urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to invade Rafah, which has been declared a safe zone with hundreds of thousands of people sheltering in the city. On the Egyptian border, Rafah is also a hub for humanitarian aid, and the precariousness of getting lifesaving supplies in was underlined last week when Israel admitted killing seven aid workers after repeatedly striking a World Central Kitchen convoy “as a result of wrong identification.”

Despite the threats to escalate the ground operation, Israeli negotiators have been talking with their Palestinian counterparts via Qatari mediators, who are reportedly increasingly optimistic about the prospect of a ceasefire deal . On Monday, Gallant himself conceded that discussions were progressing and hinted there could now be “an appropriate moment” to secure the release of the remaining hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, has announced that Israel has set a date for the planned attack on Rafah, without revealing when that might be. The message is clear — Hamas will have to make concessions now, as the negotiations reach crunch time, or the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza will only worsen. With the stakes high,U.S. President Joe Biden has issued a plea to both Qatar and Egypt , urging them to push Hamas to come to the table.

There are other reasons that Israel might be hankering for a deal of some kind though, with Israel facing off more and more directly against Hamas’ chief sponsors, Iran. A strike that leveled a building at the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus, last week raised eyebrows across the world, killing a senior Iranian commander and prompting Tehran to vow revenge. Iran has been supporting Yemen’s Houthis in their attempts to blockade the Red Sea and Lebanon’s Hezbollah in firing rockets into Israel , and Israel’s fight against its foes is taking it increasingly close to all-out conflict with the Islamic Republic.

Iran has also sought to drag the West into the fray,accusing the U.S. of having given the “green light” for the consulate attack , despite the White House desperately appealing for de-escalation. A ceasefire, even a temporary one, could see those tensions begin to settle, averting a war that would create a global crisis.

At the same time, things are looking increasingly difficult for Netanyahu. Its historic ally, the U.S., has moved from vociferously supporting Israel to trying to push through a ceasefire, while NATO member Turkey this week announced it would effectively sanction Israel over its actions in Gaza. And at home, the veteran prime minister is facing criticism over his handling of the war, with protests and even complaints from the families of some hostages.

A ceasefire, especially with a hostage deal, might soon be a political necessity for Netanyahu. It’s already a humanitarian necessity for those in Gaza. It’s just not clear yet if either side will be able to get one.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at ggavin@politico.eu or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @GabrielCSGavin .

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WHAT'D I MISS?

— Zelenskyy warns Russia has penetrated U.S. politics, invites Trump to Ukraine: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine warned in an interview that Russian influence had pierced the American political system and rejected the idea, backed by allies of Donald Trump, that Ukraine could swiftly end the war just by making massive territorial concessions. But Zelenskyy said today that he had privately urged Trump through intermediaries to travel to Ukraine and that Trump had expressed interest but had not yet committed to making a trip. Zelenskyy said he was open to hearing Trump’s proposals for the war, while making clear he was highly skeptical.

— Arizona court upholds state’s 1864 total abortion ban: The Arizona Supreme Court today upheld a 160-year-old law outlawing abortions at any stage of pregnancy unless the patient’s life is in danger , with no exceptions for rape or incest. The state’s high court, in a 4-2 decision, said that it wouldn’t interfere with the legislature’s authority to craft abortion policy and that lawmakers had voiced their “unwavering intent” since the passage of the 1864 law to prohibit the procedure. The law won’t take effect for 14 days under the court’s decision, which the majority said would give the parties in the lawsuit time to pursue any outstanding issues at the trial court level.

— U.S. has seen no evidence that Israel has committed genocide, Austin says: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin today rebuffed arguments that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, saying he’s seen no evidence to suggest it. “We don’t have any evidence of genocide being [committed]” by Israel in Gaza, Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee during a budget hearing, where his testimony was interrupted several times by protesters. Austin’s comments come as pressure builds on the Biden administration and Democrats over U.S. support for the conflict.

— Top Democrat says he needs more answers before approving F-15 sale to Israel: The House Foreign Affairs Committee’s top Democrat is holding fire on the Biden administration’s planned sale of F-15 fighter jets and munitions until he receives “assurances” about how the weapons would be used. Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) told CNN today that he is returning to Washington to receive a classified briefing on the weapons package, which the administration has asked top lawmakers to approve. Meeks, due to his perch on the weapons-approving committee, is one of four lawmakers who hold an effective veto over foreign military sales. Administrations typically seek informal approval from the top two leaders of the House Foreign Affairs and Senate Foreign Relations committees before formally notifying Congress of potential sales.

NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

Scholar and activist Dr. Cornel West, who is running for U.S. president as a third-party candidate in 2024, gives the keynote address at the "#BLM Turns 10 People's Justice Festival" on Saturday, July 15, 2023, at the Leimert Park neighborhood in Los Angeles. | Damian Dovarganes/AP

WEST’S VEEP — Independent presidential candidate Cornel West will announce his vice presidential running mate on Tavis Smiley’s radio program Wednesday, reports CNN. On the show, slated to air at noon ET, West will discuss why his West Coast-based vice presidential pick — who, like him, has never held elected office — best aligns with his values, according to a campaign official. He will be joined on the show with his running mate. They will also appear jointly at a rally in the Astoria neighborhood of Queens in New York later this month.

NO DEBATE ON DEBATES — In an unusual move, the five major broadcast and cable news networks have prepared a joint open letter that urges President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump to participate in televised debates ahead of Election Day, according to two people with direct knowledge of their plans, reports the New York Times. The letter — endorsed by ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC and Fox News — thrusts into public view a question that has swirled within media and political circles: whether the presidential debates, one of the nation’s last remaining mass civic rituals in a polarized age, will occur this year at all.

AROUND THE WORLD

IN THE PENALTY BOX — Canada is not going to meet its NATO defense spending commitments anytime soon , a long-awaited major defense policy update revealed.

In 2023 at NATO’s Vilnius summit, Canada committed alongside its allies to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense, but Ottawa’s most recent projections have its defense spend-to-GDP ratio hit 1.76 percent in 2029-30, at a ballpark of $42.6 billion.

The news comes as a record number of NATO’s allies will meet the 2 percent target, and follows months of pressure from allies for Canada to end its free-rider status in the alliance. It comes days ahead of Canada’s budget, details of which have been revealed in a stream of announcements designed to shore up attention on the governing Liberals as they struggle against Conservatives surging in the polls.

Canada’s Defense Minister Bill Blair nonetheless billed the new spending announced as a “very significant and necessary step towards reaching our NATO commitment” because it sets out billions to advance it from 1.38 percent, according to NATO’s July 2023 estimates.

The new defense report was unveiled at Canadian Forces Base Trenton, Ontario, where Justin Trudeau was pressed by reporters about failing to hit the target by 2030. The prime minister vowed there’s more to come, given that some future spending has yet to be penciled in because the government has yet to land on some key decisions.

Access New York bill updates and Congressional activity in areas that matter to you, and use our exclusive insights to see what’s on the Albany agenda. Learn more .

NIGHTLY NUMBER

$6 million

The amount that a rare comic from 1938 featuring Superman’s first appearance sold for at auction . That makes the book the most expensive comic to ever sell at auction, according to Heritage Auctions, which handled the sale.

RADAR SWEEP

RAT PACK — At archaeological sites around the world, a certain subset of remains is usually overlooked: rodent bones. Rat bones unearthed at settlement sites and collected from shipwrecks across eastern North America reveals evidence that one hyper-invasive rat species arrived decades earlier than previously thought and rapidly dominated over another to colonize U.S. and Canadian cities: the brown rat, which is generally larger and more aggressive than black rat. Popular Science tells the tale of how brown rats rapidly took over black rats’ turf, dominating North America in just a few decades.

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