DECISION DAY — Both presidential nominations are already all but decided, so we’re going to be frank: This is a somewhat-less-than-Super Tuesday. But with 15 states voting, it’s still the biggest primary election date of the year, and it offers the biggest tranche of convention delegates of any single day — Republicans will pick 865 delegates for their convention, and Democrats will allocate 1,420 . It’s also important for another reason — it’s the kickoff of primary season for downballot offices. California is teeming with consequential elections , including a closely-watched Senate race, myriad House races and several local contests with national implications. North Carolina is another state worth watching since there are numerous House primaries and the two major parties will pick their nominees in what is arguably the most important governor’s race of 2024 . Redistricting has made Alabama’s primaries especially fascinating this year — one Republican House member is going to be defeated today no matter what since two incumbents were drawn into the same district. Then there’s Texas. There’s more than a handful of notable congressional primaries taking place today — in both parties — and it’s possible that one or more House incumbents could be defeated. But the fiercest action is taking place in state legislative primaries across the state, in a jarring example of the tribalism consuming Texas Republicans . Change the aperture of the lens and you’ll see several broader 2024 storylines emerging this evening across state lines. Here are a few of them: THE PROTEST VOTE After a strong showing in Michigan , voters in Democratic primaries have the opportunity again to register their displeasure with President Joe Biden’s Israel policy by voting for the “uncommitted” ballot line. That makes Alabama, Minnesota and Tennessee — all of which have an “uncommitted” option — worth following tonight. Same for Massachusetts and North Carolina, which have a “no preference” option and Colorado, which has a “noncommitted delegate” line. (Iowa, which also offers “uncommitted,” just released the results of its caucus preference; mail-in ballots went out in January — with over 90 percent reporting, “uncommitted” sat at below 4 percent ). The state where the issue is likely to make the biggest splash is Minnesota, which has an “uncommitted” ballot line and a large, politically active Somali population centered around the Twin Cities, many of whom are Muslim, have strong connections to Palestine and are frustrated with the Biden administration’s support of Israel. The “uncommitted” effort has come together more hastily in Minnesota than the organized campaign in Michigan. But according to MPR News , activists have made a determined, last minute push; one activist showed up at a well-attended mosque in Minneapolis on Friday to pitch “uncommitted” while speaking Somali to attendees. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who had protesters on his lawn in late February demanding the state divest from Israel, has warned that “uncommitted” could have a strong showing at the ballot box today. Minneapolis and Saint Paul also have a bona fide progressive streak; the local DSA chapter racked up wins in the Minnesota state legislature in 2022 and has now endorsed the “uncommitted” line, posting on its social media channels urging members to eschew voting for the president. In addition to “uncommitted,” there’s the matter of Dean Phillips, the suburban Minneapolis congressman who has mounted a quixotic challenge to Biden and naturally enjoys more name recognition in his home state than elsewhere in the country. These combined factors could make Minnesota the squeakiest wheel for Biden this evening. MAGA TUESDAY Even if he ran the table today and picked up every single available delegate, Donald Trump couldn’t clinch the GOP nomination. But he can get pretty darn close. So that makes Super Tuesday something close to Nikki Haley’s last stand. There are a few states that offer Haley some promise today, but it’s largely because they are anomalous in one way or another from most other Republican electorates. There’s liberal Vermont, where Trump has been slaughtered twice in the general election and where popular moderate Republican Gov. Phil Scott has endorsed Haley. Then there’s conservative Utah, where Trump’s stylings — in particular, the crude comments and harsh rhetoric about immigrants — have always rubbed Mormons the wrong way, even if he managed to win the state twice. In the event of a Trump sweep tonight, it’s not entirely clear if Haley will soldier on in a primary where she hasn’t yet won a single state — only the District of Columbia. Her dim prospects across the Super Tuesday landscape are just one measure of Trump’s grip on the party. The early state contests have already revealed the extent to which he is reshaping the GOP primary electorate in a more working class, populist direction. Today will provide more indications of just how deep his influence runs since he’s endorsed in elections across the map and up and down the ballot. In North Carolina, Trump has chosen sides in several open House races and backed the likely GOP nominee for governor, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a Black MAGA lightning rod whom Trump referred to at a recent rally as “Martin Luther King on steroids.” In California, the former president endorsed Vince Fong, Kevin McCarthy’s chosen successor for the House seat he vacated. Texas, however, will provide the fullest accounting of Trump’s reach. He has endorsed candidates in several open House primaries, and in a number of state legislative primaries — including against the GOP Speaker of the House. The imprint of Trump’s smashmouth, payback politics can be seen in Texas Attorney General’s Ken Paxton’s so-called impeachment revenge tour. Paxton, a Trump ally who was impeached last year by the GOP-dominated state House, is seeking retribution against those who voted against him. Only two of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021 survived his wrath to serve another term in Congress. It’s worth watching to see if Paxton can match that success rate. CRIMINAL JUSTICE On the West Coast, there are nationally debated criminal justice questions wrapped up in local elections. In Los Angeles, District Attorney George Gascón is staring down a whopping 11 challengers, many of whom are attacking him for eliminating cash bail and refusing to prosecute juvenile offenders as adults. Gascón, who was the district attorney of San Francisco between 2011 and 2019 and is a leading figure among the progressive prosecutors who have recently been elected in cities across the country, has also drawn the ire of the right for years and has frustrated some other Los Angeles County prosecutors during his time leading the office . Gascón’s critics — who have already attempted to recall him twice since his election in 2020 — argue his time in office has been marred with rising crime. In the last year violent crime and homicides in Los Angeles County have both dropped, after the latter reached a 15-year high in 2022; property crime and theft were up. In San Francisco, Mayor London Breed has attempted to convince voters that she’s getting worries about crime in the city under control, as she supports two controversial ballot initiatives: requiring single adults on welfare to be screened for illegal drug use and giving the police the ability to use drones and surveillance cameras (and thus more power in the city). This week, the president of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors Aaron Peskin — an avowed progressive whose plan would be to attack Breed from the left — floated a mayoral run. Breed’s poll numbers are poor, and she has presided over a rise in crime in San Francisco and retailers and some tech companies abandoning the city. Now, Breed is betting that means testing welfare and giving cops more tools will help her get crime under control. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s authors at cmahtesian@politico.com and cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie and @calder_mchugh .
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