 | BY CALDER MCHUGH | | 
Congressional candidate for New York's 3rd District Mazi Melesa Pilip campaigns in Queens on Feb. 7. | Adam Gray/Getty Images | AS GO THE SUBURBS — One of the most important races of the year is taking place in the New York City suburbs next week, a special election to succeed Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.). Thousands of Long Island residents are already pouring into polling places to cast early votes. Competitive special elections in swing districts are always closely scrutinized for clues on the mood of the electorate. But this one, between former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi and Nassau County GOP legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip, is especially notable because many of the questions looming over the presidential election are about to be tested in this contest. First, there’s the district’s make-up. In an election year in which the suburbs will play a critical role in determining the outcome of the White House and control of the House, this is a Democratic-oriented suburban seat that is well within Democratic reach — in 2020, Joe Biden won it by roughly eight percentage points. And Suozzi represented the seat for three terms until he ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2022. Santos succeeded him by winning in what was a very good year for New York Republicans. His 2022 victory was part and parcel of a lurch to the right across New York City’s suburbs; nowhere was that shift more apparent than on Long Island. This year, Democrats are pinning their hopes of winning back the House on purple New York districts like New York’s 3rd that Republicans gained in 2022.
REPUBLICANS HAVE NO OTHER ISSUE TO ADDRESS OTHER THAN THE MIGRANT CRISIS THEY HAVE CAUSED BY THEIR REFUSAL TO FUND ADDITIONAL BORDER SECURITY
The high stakes have already led to a nationalization of the race. And one issue that is roiling national politics — immigration — is center stage. On Wednesday, Pilip made a show out of an endorsement from the border patrol union, holding the event outside a temporary shelter for migrants at the Creedmoor Psychiatric Center in Queens. A January poll from Emerson suggested that immigration is the most important issue to voters in NY-03 , and Republicans have blitzed the airwaves with attack ads about the migrant crisis. The issue is especially sensitive in the region in the wake of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s efforts to send migrants to New York by the busload, which has overwhelmed city resources. A video of people whom authorities identified as migrants attacking cops in Times Square last week has served to further stoke tensions. The special election will be the first test of the intensity of the debate at the ballot box. The two candidates have also taken divergent approaches to the likely presidential nominees in November. Pilip has embraced former President Donald Trump, saying “if he can come to help me I would appreciate that.” That stands in stark contrast to Suozzi’s comments Monday, when he said “I can pretty much guarantee the president is not going to be coming to campaign… I don’t think it would be helpful, just as I don’t think Donald Trump would be helpful to my opponent” — a revealing comment about Biden’s standing in a district that voted for him in 2020 and one that stands as a suburban bellwether. It’s now a place, at least according to Suozzi, where Biden has a big problem. The more promising news for Democrats is that polls suggest Suozzi has a slight edge . He has significant name recognition and fundraising advantage over Pilip, who is actually a registered Democrat and has only served as a county legislator since 2021. In addition, the Santos scandal has cast something of a pallor over local Republicans. On top of everything else, there’s another reason why all eyes are on New York’s 3rd. The margin of control in the House is so razor-thin at the moment that even one more Democratic or Republican vote could legitimately shift the outcome of some congressional votes — and you don’t have to look far for evidence. On Tuesday, House Republicans failed to impeach Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas by a single vote. Santos found a photo of the tally of the measure, and posted a simple question on X : “Miss me yet?” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh .
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Political Hacks define themselves! Must read.
— Special counsel passes on charging Biden but paints damning portrait of him: The special counsel investigating President Joe Biden’s handling of classified documents has concluded that no criminal charges are warranted in the matter and said they wouldn’t be even if the Department of Justice didn’t have a policy barring the prosecution of sitting presidents. That conclusion was revealed in a 345-page report that the Justice Department released today. But while the report withheld condemnation of Biden on legal grounds, it presented a harsh portrait of his conduct and mental faculties. Biden improperly took classified material related to the 2009 Afghanistan troop surge and shared classified information with the ghostwriter of his 2017 memoir. The report also includes photos of classified documents in insecure places, including a cardboard box in Biden’s garage and a filing cabinet under his TV.
— Judge rejects Peter Navarro’s bid to remain out of jail while he appeals contempt conviction: A federal judge rejected former Trump White House aide Peter Navarro’s bid to remain out of prison while he appeals his criminal conviction for defying a subpoena from the Jan. 6 select committee. U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta said Navarro’s claim that he might succeed on appeal was not enough of a basis to postpone a four-month prison term that Mehta handed down last month. — Senate GOP helps advance borderless foreign aid bill: The Senate advanced the national security supplemental delivering tens of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel , putting the legislation on the potential path to passage in the coming days. After months of bipartisan handwringing, enough Republican senators voted to advance the bill to put it over the 60-vote threshold, after they rejected a version that included border policy changes on Wednesday. But there’s a ways to go yet — senators are still negotiating the terms of eventual passage. — Johnson backpedals on plans to endorse Rosendale after GOP blowback: Speaker Mike Johnson rapidly retreated from plans to back Rep. Matt Rosendale in Montana’s critical Senate race after receiving heavy blowback from Republicans on Capitol Hill. Rosendale, a top leadership antagonist, is preparing to launch his campaign against veteran Tim Sheehy in the competitive race against Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) — one of the GOP’s best pickup opportunities. Johnson had planned to boost Rosendale in the primary, a move directly at odds with the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who are backing Sheehy.
| | NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 — 14TH AMENDMENT EDITION |
| FROSTY RECEPTION — The attempt to have former President Donald Trump disqualified from the ballot met a frosty reception at the Supreme Court today. Justices across the ideological spectrum seemed skeptical of a Colorado ruling that deemed Trump ineligible to appear on the state’s ballot because of his involvement in stoking violence at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. The Colorado decision rested on the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause, which says that those who have engaged in an insurrection against the United States after previously taking an oath to support the Constitution are ineligible to hold office. But over two hours of arguments today, the justices repeatedly suggested that states do not have the authority to enforce the disqualification provision. Allowing individual states to do so could lead to a chaotic patchwork across the country, they warned. Instead, some justices said, the insurrection clause can be enforced only through congressional legislation. 109 WORDS — Donald Trump’s ability to run for president again will depend on how the Supreme Court interprets Section 3 of the 14th Amendment — a two-sentence, 109-word paragraph brimming with commas and nested phrases . And the justices will mostly be starting from scratch. Though the provision, known colloquially as the insurrection clause, was adopted in 1868, it has been invoked little since then, and as a result it has rarely been interpreted by any court. HOW TRUMP COULD LOSE — The conventional wisdom is that the challenge to Donald Trump’s eligibility is dead on arrival at the Supreme Court. However strong the challenge might be in a vacuum — and scholars on both the left and the right say the legal arguments are potent — there’s no way the conservative-dominated court will kick Trump off the ballot as he’s cruising to the nomination, right? Don’t be so certain. Here are three contrarian theories for why Trump could actually lose this case — for reasons that have little to do with the law. THE COURT’S MANY FRIENDS — Dozens of outside voices have weighed in on whether former President Donald Trump is eligible to run for the presidency again. There were nearly 80 amicus briefs filed in Trump v. Anderson, the case that looks to have Trump disqualified based on an interpretation of a clause of the 14th Amendment that bars insurrectionists from holding public office if they had previously taken an oath to “support” the Constitution. These briefs — which are sometimes known as friend of the court briefings — let parties that aren’t actually directly involved in a case in front of the court put forward legal arguments that justices (might) consider. Those who filed ran the gamut from legal gadflies to well-known election law experts, as well as current and former members of Congress and election officials. Here’s a round-up of some of the most notable ones — and the legal arguments they put forth.
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A woman casts her ballot at a polling station during Pakistan's national elections in Islamabad today. | Farooq Naeem/AFP via Getty Images | ELECTION DAY — Pakistanis braved cold winter weather and the threat of violence to vote for a new parliament today a day after twin bombings claimed at least 30 lives in the worst election-related violence ahead of the contested elections, reports The Associated Press. Tens of thousands of police and paramilitary forces have been deployed at polling stations to ensure security. Still, on the eve of the election, a pair of bombings at election offices in restive southwestern Baluchistan province killed at least 30 people and wounded more than two dozen others. The balloting has also been marred by allegations from the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan that its candidates were denied a fair chance at campaigning. The cricket star-turned-Islamist politician — ousted in a no-confidence vote in parliament in 2022 — is behind bars and banned from running, though he still commands a massive following. However, it’s unclear if his angry and disillusioned supporters will turn up at the polls in great numbers. The election comes at a critical time for this nuclear-armed nation, an unpredictable Western ally bordering Afghanistan, China, India and Iran — a region rife with hostile boundaries and tense relations. Pakistan’s next government will face huge challenges, from containing unrest, overcoming an intractable economic crisis to stemming illegal migration. YOU’RE FIRED — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy removed Valery Zaluzhny today as the country’s military commander-in-chief — ending months of tensions between the two, POLITICO EU reports. Zaluzhny will be replaced by General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukrainian ground forces who is seen as closer to the president.
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| | | OUT OF THE WOODS — Into the Wild, the book by Jon Krakauer that tells the story of the death of wilderness adventurer Chris McCandless that subsequently became a film, has become an essential text in the American canon, especially among people who are interested in living off the grid. The van where McCandless spent his last days has also for decades been a pilgrimage site , a place that people visited to pay their respects. Now, it’s been moved and is becoming a museum — but can it maintain what was interesting and special about it when it’s no longer in the woods? Eva Holland reports for Outside Magazine.
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On this date in 1941: The King and Queen of Mardi Gras are pictured in New Orleans. The Queen, usually a debutante, wears an outfit that weighs up to 60 pounds with thousands of rhinestones that cost between $300 to $5,000 dollars. | AP | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here . | |
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