Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO NIGHTLY: The new heavyweights in Congress

Saturday, November 19, 2022

POLITICO NIGHTLY: The new heavyweights in Congress

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With help from Joanne Kenen

House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) speaks to members of the press after the House Republican Conference voted for him to be its nominee for Speaker of the House. | Alex Wong/Getty Images

ALL OVER THE MAP — The midterm elections delivered an uneven verdict. Democrats defied expectations and historical precedent to hold the Senate, but Republicans narrowly captured the House. In Michigan, Democrats won sweeping victories up and down the ballot. But in New York, they suffered near-catastrophic losses . In Pennsylvania, Republicans experienced stinging losses, losing Senate and governor’s races and failing to win any of the state’s competitive House contests. But in Florida, the GOP ran roughshod over Democrats, winning every statewide office, picking up four House seats and supermajorities in both state legislative chambers.

Those scattershot outcomes will shift power between states in the next Congress, with some poised to see their interests prosper under a new Republican majority and others likely to face a notable loss of clout.

Here’s a look at the new power balance among the states in the next Congress.

California

The state lost a seat in reapportionment, but with 52 members it’s still the largest delegation in the House. Under the Democratic majority, California was the alpha dog. With 42 Democrats, it fielded the largest and most dominant bloc in the Democratic caucus, led by San Francisco’s Nancy Pelosi as House speaker and four Californians holding committee chairs.

The midterms didn’t change the overall partisan composition of the delegation that much.

But under Republican rule, the state’s clout will be diminished. The likely (though far from assured) ascension of Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy to speaker will cushion some of the blow from Pelosi’s departure but California’s Republican delegation will rank only third or fourth in sheer size in the new majority — well behind the powerhouse Texas and Florida delegations. Since many of California’s Republican legislators haven’t been in Congress very long, none are in line to chair a committee, which is where power resides.

Florida

Thanks in part to Gov. Ron DeSantis’ aggressive effort to gerrymander a more GOP-friendly congressional map, Republicans netted four additional seats out of Florida.

The GOP now holds a 20-8 majority in Florida’s house delegation, cementing the state’s status as the second-largest Republican delegation in the House.

Under the new GOP majority, the state might get its first committee chair in years — Rep. Vern Buchanan is in contention to take the gavel of the powerful, tax-writing Ways and Means Committee.

Iowa

In the aftermath of the 2018 Democratic midterm rout, Iowa sent a delegation of three Democrats and one Republican to the House. Next year, however, there won’t be a single Democrat in the House or Senate — Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne lost her reelection bid. The 118th Congress will mark the first time since 1956 that the Iowa congressional delegation is entirely Republican — just in time for the new GOP majority.

Louisiana

The state’s modestly sized House delegation (5 Republicans, 1 Democrat) remained static this year — no seats gained or lost due to reapportionment, no incumbents defeated on Election Day, no real action at all. But with GOP Rep. Steve Scalise ascending to majority leader and Rep. Mike Johnson slated to again serve as vice chair of the Republican conference, the state is far better positioned to advance its priorities and protect its interests than under a Democratic majority.

Massachusetts

In September, President Joe Biden paid homage to the clout of Massachusetts’ House and Senate members, ticking off their names one by one. “Holy God,” he joked at an event in Boston . “I can’t do anything without checking in on the delegation ... It’s the most powerful and most talented delegation, I think, in the country.”

Even so, with an all-Democratic House and Senate delegation, Massachusetts will be at a distinct disadvantage under the new GOP House majority. The state is slated to lose control of the chairs of two powerful committees — Rules and Ways and Means. If there’s a silver lining for the state, it’s the rapid rise of Rep. Katherine Clark, who’s poised to become Democratic whip, the No. 2 spot in the Democratic caucus.

New York

New York was the scene of an unexpected Republican smash-and-grab on Election Day. The GOP captured all four House seats on Long Island and flipped four Democratic-held seats in total, after an aggressive gerrymander on the part of New York Democrats was thrown out by the state’s highest court. As a result, the state will have 11 Republicans in its 26-member House delegation, making it one of the biggest blocs in the GOP conference. New York will also have Rep. Elise Stefanik, who represents a North Country-based district, serving as conference chair, the House GOP’s No. 3 leadership slot.

Democrats, however, will not lack muscle in either the House or the Senate. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries is on a trajectory to become Democratic leader — if he’s elected, the Brooklyn-based congressman would become the first Black lawmaker to lead a party in Congress. His Democratic counterpart in the Senate is another New Yorker — Chuck Schumer, who held on to his razor-thin Senate majority this fall.

North Carolina

Five new members — four Democrats and one Republican — were elected to the House from North Carolina, not to mention a new senator in Republican Ted Budd. Despite the inexperience, the 14-member delegation isn’t necessarily facing a power outage. It could end up with two chairs under the new GOP House majority, in addition to Rep. Richard Hudson, who was elected Tuesday as chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP’s campaign arm.

Ohio

After GOP victories in the state’s Senate and governor’s contests this year, it’s hard to remember that Ohio was once considered a premier swing state. With a 10-member Republican House delegation, and two prospective committee chairs, it’s poised to thrive in a Republican House.

Oklahoma

Few states saw their fortunes turned as much as Oklahoma. Its five-member, all-Republican House delegation boasts newly elected Republican Study Committee Chair Kevin Hern and could feature two committee chairs — Reps. Tom Cole and Frank Lucas.

Texas

Texas gained two seats in reapportionment so it will send 38 members to Congress next year — only California has a larger delegation. With 25 Republicans, Texas represents the largest bloc in the Republican conference — and it’s poised to protect state interests, such as the oil and gas industry. While the state has seven newly elected members, it’s also home to a handful of veteran Republican legislators and could end up with as many as three chairs — including Appropriations.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on Twitter at @PoliticoCharlie .

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THE NEW CONGRESS

While final vote counts are still being tallied in some states, scores of newly elected members of Congress are descending on Washington, attending new member initiations, touring the Capitol and getting a crash course in the functions of their new jobs after months of campaigning. At Nightly, we’ll also be conducting a crash course before they are sworn in on Jan. 3 — on rising stars to watch and other congressional issues and trends to follow.

Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is poised to become the new Democratic leader. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

SMOOTH TRANSITION — House Democrats are increasingly likely to elect their troika of top leaders for the next Congress without any major confrontation , ensuring a show of unity as they enter the minority, writes Nicholas Wu .

And it didn’t happen without some work: The caucus has quietly defused several potential conflicts that could have divided its members. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), who’d been eyeing a shot for the No. 2 slot, announced today she was running for reelection as chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus instead of mounting a caucus-wide leadership bid.

That follows Rep. Adam Schiff’s (D-Calif.) decision to drop his bid for the No. 1 spot as he eyes a run for a Senate seat in California, clearing the way for current caucus chair Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to run for minority leader unopposed.

IT’S OVER — Democrat Adam Frisch conceded to Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) today in what has been one of the closest races of the 2022 election, coming down to a few hundred votes and a pending recount, writes Marissa Martinez .

“There’s never been a more humbling moment in my life,” Frisch said in a speech broadcast on Facebook, thanking his supporters. The former Aspen City Council member said that despite the automatic recount triggered by the small margin separating him and Boebert, he did not want to continue to fund fruitless election efforts over a “handful of votes.”

WHAT'D I MISS?

Attorney General Merrick Garland announces he will appoint a special counsel to oversee the Justice Department’s investigation into former President Donald Trump. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

— Garland names Jack Smith special counsel for Trump criminal probes: Attorney General Merrick Garland today appointed a special prosecutor to oversee criminal investigations related to former President Donald Trump. Jack Smith, a former chief of the Justice Department’s unit that investigates public corruption — the Public Integrity Section — will take on the new role which operates largely independent of Justice Department control under decades-old federal regulations. The announcement represents a new phase in the extraordinary investigations into an ex-president and his allies and comes as Trump mounts a new bid to reclaim the presidency.

— John Kerry comes down with Covid at climate summit: U.S. special climate envoy John Kerry has tested positive for Covid-19 at the global climate talks and is self-isolating, the State Department said in a statement today. “He is fully vaccinated and boosted and experiencing mild symptoms,” spokesperson Whitney Smith said. “He is working with his negotiations team and foreign counterparts by phone to ensure a successful outcome of” the U.N. climate summit in Egypt.

— Former finance chief of Trump Organization wraps up testimony: Allen Weisselberg, the star witness in the Manhattan District Attorney’s criminal tax fraud trial against the Trump Organization, finished testifying today against his longtime employer . Weisselberg testified that the two Trump sons became aware of elements of the off-the-books compensation scheme once a cleanup was underway. Weisselberg continued that he wasn’t disciplined and was given a $200,000 raise. He remains on the payroll, and the company is paying for his legal representation.

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AROUND THE WORLD

FIERY PROTESTS — Protesters reportedly set fire to Iran’s Islamic Revolution leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s home Thursday, according to videos circulating on social media which depict the blaze. While Reuters and AFP have verified the location in these videos to be the late leader’s home, state media has rejected these claims , Al Jazeera reports. Khomeini’s home was made into a museum following his death in 1989.

Crowds of protesters continued to gather in various cities in Iran this week, roughly two months after the death of Mahsa Amini. Her death sparked nationwide protests which have been ongoing since Sept. 16. The 22-year-old “died in the custody of the morality police after she had been detained for not adhering to the country’s dress code for women.”

Protests this past week reflected “a renewed wave of demonstrations to mark the anniversary of a previous round of deadly protests in 2019, when hundreds of people were killed as they took to the street following a fuel price increase,” according to Al Jazeera reporting.

“Numerous cities across the country saw chaotic scenes, with the deadliest incident taking place on Wednesday night in the southwestern city of Izeh, in Khuzestan province, when at least seven people died – including two boys aged nine and 13.”

NIGHTLY NUMBER

$104 million

The amount of money — most of it his own — that billionaire Rick Caruso spent on a losing effort in the Los Angeles mayoral race. He’s one of many wealthy Americans who have recently unsuccessfully self-funded runs for office, including Michael Bloomberg, Meg Whitman and Tom Steyer.

RADAR SWEEP

BAD BLOOD — After a series of snafus this week related to selling Taylor Swift concert tickets , Ticketmaster has come under a whole lot of heat from more than just Swifties — politicians and regulators are angry that Ticketmaster has a virtual monopoly on the business of online concert ticket sales, and the Justice Department has opened up an antitrust lawsuit into the practice. But where does Taylor herself fall in all of this? And how much did her (and her team’s) decisions set us on the week from hell for her biggest fans? Timothy Noah gives us an economic rundown in his newsletter Backbencher.

PARTING WORDS

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) speaks on the states that had yet to commit to Medicaid expansion in 2021. South Dakota voted to expand Medicaid this November. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

STALLED EXPANSION — Will the Medicaid wars ever wind down?

In last week’s election, the people of South Dakota easily backed expanding Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act, writes Joanne Kenen , the Commonwealth Fund Journalist in Residence at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. It was the seventh such ballot initiative in a deep red state. And it was the seventh that passed. And by deep red — we mean deep red: states like Idaho, Utah and Oklahoma.

Conservative governors and legislators may dislike the program, but voters in their states have made it clear that they think covering poor people — particularly when the federal government is picking up most of the tab — is a pretty smart idea.

Medicaid has improved people’s physical and economic health in all sorts of measurable ways. States that haven’t expanded Medicaid have seen a much higher rate of rural hospital closures and doctors and hospitals are forced to provide much more uncompensated coverage.

“States that have done expansion have seen benefits,” Joan Alker, executive director and Co-Founder of Georgetown’s Center for Children and Families told Nightly. “They haven’t been bankrupted.”

Medicaid is also at the forefront of covering opioid and other substance abuse treatment, mental health, high maternal and infant mortality rates, added Cindy Mann, who ran Medicare under the Obama administration and is now at Manatt Health.

Yet 11 states are still holding out, including Texas and Florida. They are leaving more than two million people uncovered, according to estimates from the Kaiser Family Foundation. Millions more, just above the poverty line, can get highly subsidized coverage in the Affordable Care Act markets, but many of those people would be better off under Medicaid if their state expanded.

So what can be done?

The ballot initiative route is now all but closed off; the remaining 11 holdout states either don’t allow such initiatives or make them exceedingly difficult.

The Biden administration and Congress did sweeten the pot for holdout states in the American Rescue Plan, boosting what Washington will kick in for the joint federal-state program. The doomed Build Back Better bill had additional incentives, but when that collapsed, the Medicaid piece didn’t make it into the scaled back version which became the Inflation Reduction Act. No legislative solution is likely in the next divided Congress.

So that leaves time and common sense. The rest of Obamacare has mostly been normalized; millions are covered and congressional Republicans may tinker around the edges but aren’t burning to take on repeal again. Medicaid is the place where GOP governors can still make their anti-Obamacare stand.

But many observers, including both Alker and Mann, think that the rest of the states will slowly decide to expand too. The politics are subsiding; ongoing resistance just doesn’t make a lot of fiscal sense.

A decade ago, two early GOP adopters made separate arguments for expansion. Then-Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, deeply conservative, maintained that it was ridiculous for the people of Arizona to pay federal taxes that ended up subsidizing Medicaid in other states instead of coming back home. And the more moderate John Kasich, then governor of Ohio, made the moral case for covering low income people, particularly in a state so hard hit by the opioid crisis.

Both of those arguments remain relevant today.

“I do believe that one day all the states will have done this and it will be completely normalized,” said Alker. “I just don’t know when that will be.”

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