Friday, May 6, 2022

Another astoundingly good jobs report

 

Another astoundingly good jobs report: So economists expected US employers to add 380,000 jobs in April; instead, they added a whopping 428,000, continuing the economy's remarkable recovery from the devastating pandemic.

The country has now regained more than 90 percent of the 22 million jobs that were lost at the height of pandemic in the spring of 2020.

It's a continuation of the record job creation under Joe Biden. In his first year in office, there were 6.6 million jobs added to the economy, 60 percent more than the next highest total, which was 3.9 million under Jimmy Carter.

(Wait, you thought Trump was the biggest job creator in the history of the world just because he said so? Sad! Not only did Biden leave him in the dust in his first year in office, but far more jobs were added under Carter, and Bill Clinton beat him in Year One as well, with 2.8 million jobs. Trump is tied with George H.W. Bush and Lyndon Baines Johnson, with 2 million jobs added in their first year in office.)

The second piece of good news is that the unemployment rate stayed at a strong 3.6 percent, just .1 percent higher than it was before the pandemic, which was itself a 50-year low.

This job growth and low jobless rate happened much quicker than economists had predicted. The country has dug itself out of a pretty deep hole remarkably quickly.

In addition, wages are rising, with average hourly earnings 5.5 percent higher than a year ago.

And finally, GDP grew 5.7 percent in 2021, the fastest pace since 1984.

More jobs, less unemployment, bigger paychecks, and a growing economy. What's not to like?

Well, a few things, in fact.

1. People have money to spend and they are trying to spend it. That's usually a good thing for a vibrant economy, but the demand is far outstripping the supply. That's a classic formula for inflation, currently running at 8.5 percent. It's why the Fed is raising interest rates: To tamp down spending and cool things off.

2. The reasons that supply can't keep up with the demand of American consumers are several: The pandemic disrupted supply chains as workers fell ill, companies slowed or stopped production when there was little demand during lockdowns and are still catching up, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is disrupting food and energy markets, and China, a huge supplier of goods around the world, is enacting more coronavirus lockdowns.

3. Companies are frantically trying to ramp up production to meet this hot consumer demand, but they can't find enough workers to fill the jobs they have. That's one reason why wages are rising (supply and demand, remember?). As the country came out of the worst of the pandemic, many workers took a long, introspective look at their jobs, and many decided to switch to something with more respect, higher pay, and fewer encounters with Covidiots coughing in their face, verbally attacking them, or even physically assaulting them. Many who were close to retirement decided to call it quits early.

There's something else worth noting: These strong job gains mean more income -- and more federal taxes paid. The result is that this fiscal year's budget deficit will decrease by $1.5 trillion, and the government will pay down the national debt this quarter for the first time in six years.

People who are paying higher prices or can't find a clerk to help them at Wal-Mart think the economy is in the tank.

It's not, folks. Yes, the boycotts of Russia's energy supplies could continue to keep gas prices up. And the supply chain tangle still hasn't been sorted out.

But what some economists are calling the Biden Boom is the biggest success story of Biden's young presidency.


FAST FORWARD




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