Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO Nightly: Why Putin chose war

Friday, February 25, 2022

POLITICO Nightly: Why Putin chose war

With help from Renuka Rayasam and Tyler Weyant

Russian President Vladimir Putin. | Anthony Wallace - Pool/Getty Images

WHERE WE’RE HEADED — “Putin chose this war,” President Joe Biden said today, announcing new Russian sanctions after the Russian president launched an assault on Ukraine.

But, as Russian soldiers continue their attacks from Kyiv to the Donbas, one big question looms: Why is Vladimir Putin doing this? Nightly asked national security experts to weigh in on what Putin’s ultimate endgame is in declaring war in Ukraine. These responses have been edited.

“Russia’s written demands show he intends to revise history and change the post-1989 European security order. Attacking Ukraine has probably assuaged his damaged ego from the claim Russia is a declining power. On one hand, Putin wants to restore the notion of empire and doesn’t recognize the legitimacy of former Soviet republics. At the same time, military aggression against manufactured enemies is a way to deflect discontent at home and maintain his power.

“Putin’s first order of business is to topple the pro-Western government of Ukraine and to make the country a vassal state like in neighboring Belarus. U.S. intelligence has been spot on about Russia’s plans, and has already warned about kill lists to crush any opposition. Moving beyond Ukraine should not be ruled out. But an attack on a NATO member would be a game changer. That won’t stop him from bullying countries on the eastern flank of NATO. Putin’s long-term aim is to sow division within the transatlantic alliance . Ultimately Putin wants to make a mockery of democratic ideas and not allow Western values to take hold in or close to Russia.” — Sudha David-Wilp, deputy director of the Berlin Office of the German Marshall Fund

“A fixed neutral status of Ukraine, with it not joining NATO, no military support for Ukraine and preferably a political regime more loyal to Moscow.” — Tetyana Malyarenko , professor of European security at the National University Odessa Law Academy in Ukraine

“Namely, Putin seeks a significant expansion of Russian territory in the region; an increase in Russian influence globally; and a clear expression of Russia military strength relative to its neighbors (including in both the physical and cyber domains), as well as — and perhaps most importantly for Putin — yet another demonstration of Western impotence in the face of Russian aggression.

“Essentially, having launched this war, unless it goes horribly poorly for Putin with massive Russian casualties — a highly unlikely outcome at this point given the limited weaponry, training, and intelligence support we’ve been willing to provide to Ukraine thus far — it is likely that he is once again going to walk away with a net gain for Russia, all at the expense of the system of international order that the U.S. and our allies have worked for decades to establish and nurture.” — Jamil Jaffer, founder and executive director of the National Security Institute; former Republican chief counsel and senior adviser of Senate Foreign Relations Committee during Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine

“Putin’s end game goes beyond occupying the eastern regions of Ukraine. The Russian president’s ultimate goals are to one, delegitimize the Zelenskyy Government in Kyiv. And two, occupy all of Ukraine and prop up a government supportive of Moscow. And three, signal to the world that any further expansion of NATO to the east will not be tolerated.

“Putin longs for vestiges of the former Soviet Union, where Russia was regarded as one of only two superpowers and by default , met with a sense of hallowed respect. I believe he feels justified in his actions. Sadly, I see a scenario where severe economic sanctions by the United States, United Kingdom, and the European Union, actually work, forcing President Putin to recognize, or tolerate, the independence of Ukraine and cede control back to its people, however, not without the annexation Donetsk and Luhansk in the East, which Russia already recognized as two independent states this past Monday.” — Charles Carithers , principal at Cornerstone Government Affairs and visiting fellow at the National Security Institute; former staff member on House Committee of Homeland Security advising Chair Bennie Thompson; worked in the U.S. intelligence community for 11 years

Stay tuned tomorrow: POLITICO Magazine will have insight from more top Russia experts and officials on Putin’s endgame in the Friday Cover story.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at mward@politico.com, or on Twitter at @MyahWard.

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

— Inside the sanctions: Biden announced a second and larger sanctions package on Russia, punishing Putin for the invasion of Ukraine but stopping short of targeting some critical sectors of his nation’s economy . Speaking in generalities from the White House, Biden said his administration would stunt the Russian military’s ability to finance and grow its force; freeze U.S. assets held by Russian banks, including VTB; target elites and members of Putin’s inner circle; and curtail Russia’s high-tech imports in a way that could damage Moscow’s aerospace industry.

— Six things about how sanctions will affect Americans: From gas prices to cyber threats, energy reporter Ben Lefebrve talks about how Americans could feel the sanctions placed on Russia.

— Pentagon sending more troops to Germany: Biden approved the deployment of 7,000 additional U.S. troops to Germany, bringing the total of U.S.-based forces sent to Europe to 12,000 this month . The 7,000 troops will deploy to Germany and will include an armored brigade combat team with “associated capabilities and enablers,” according to a Defense Department statement.

DON’T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

WHAT'D I MISS?

— Inhofe to retire from Senate, teeing up special election in Oklahoma: Sen. Jim Inhofe is expected to announce his retirement in the coming days, according to a person familiar with his plans , likely triggering a special election to replace him this fall. The 87-year-old Oklahoma Republican was elected to another six-year term in 2020, but has missed more votes than usual recently and told reporters in December his wife has been sick. His decision to step down will surely fuel a competitive Republican primary to succeed him in ruby-red Oklahoma.

— 3 former cops convicted of rights violations in Floyd killing: Three former Minneapolis police officers were convicted today of violating George Floyd’s civil rights. Tou Thao, J. Alexander Kueng and Thomas Lane were charged with depriving Floyd of his right to medical care when Officer Derek Chauvin pressed his knee into Floyd’s neck for 9 1/2 minutes as the 46-year-old Black man was handcuffed and facedown on the street on May 25, 2020.

— Fear enters the oil markets: The Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered an immediate jump in oil prices — and worries that wartime hostilities and sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the European Union could send them soaring higher . U.S. benchmark crude oil prices briefly touched $100 late early today, for the first time since 2014, as the first sounds of explosions in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities appeared on televisions and computer screens. They could rise as high as $140 in months if serious supply disruptions happen, some analysts said — a level that would send the price of a gallon of gasoline soaring.

— Russia oil shock looms over Fed inflation fight: The Federal Reserve has been focused for months on curbing a surge in inflation sparked by supply chain snags and consumer demand. It hadn’t been factoring in the fallout from a war. That’s the situation the world’s most important central bank now faces, with the threat of soaring oil costs driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an event that could spark further price jumps and, at worst, even tip the U.S. into a recession . The Fed was already expected to begin a campaign of interest rate increases next month in a bid to remove its massive support for economic growth amid a blistering job market and rapidly rising prices. But the Ukraine crisis may force the central bank to act even more aggressively as the conflict widens, threatening easy access to oil from Russia, one of the world’s top suppliers.

— `Risks are huge`: Russian attack rattles grain markets: The sanctions unveiled by the U.S. and its European allies against Russia have made no mention of banning imports of food and agricultural products. That hasn’t stopped global grain prices from soaring. Traders are bracing for the consequences of a widening war between Russia and Ukraine, two of the world’s largest wheat exporters . As a result, wheat futures prices at the Chicago Board of Trade, the global benchmark, surged 6 percent earlier this week, to about $9.34 a bushel, the highest in nine years. Wheat futures are up 10 percent since the start of the year.

NIGHTLY NUMBER

At least 1,728

The number of people who were detained today after anti-war protests took place in cities across Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, according to a protest monitoring group.

PARTING IMAGE

SCENES FROM THE GROUND — The images of the invasion of Ukraine have drawn the world’s attention. Exclusive photos from Alex Lourie of Redux Images show the bombing of a civilian apartment complex in Chuhuiv, near Kharkiv, Ukraine.