| | |  | BY RYAN LIZZA | Presented by The National Council on Election Integrity | With help from Renuka Rayasam and Myah Ward COULD BIDEN HIT 400? Good evening from Arizona, where President Donald Trump spent Monday at two rallies and where I’m about to go check out Lara Trump addressing supporters in Scottsdale. The Trump campaign and the RNC announced Monday they are pumping an extra million dollars a week into TV ads here. There’s a reason for all of the attention. Trump won this state by 3.5 points in 2016, but in 2020, Joe Biden has had a steady 3- to 4-point lead for months. If you’re looking for a bellwether state to watch on election night, Arizona, which has 11 electoral votes, would be my choice. There’s a great deal of attention in the news media about a potential blue wave that could see Biden sweep states like Georgia and Texas, but inside the Biden campaign and among top Democrats, there is extreme caution. “All of us are suffering from PTSD so nobody is overly confident in these poll numbers,” said a former top member of the Obama administration and confidante of Hillary Clinton. “Nobody I know is saying there’s an 80 percent chance this guy is going to be president. God bless America if there’s a wave coming, and I’ll be glad to jump on a surfboard, but these numbers are too close.”
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Ryan Lizza | POLITICO | Top Democrats are not ruling out a second Trump term. “It’s still close enough in the battlegrounds that Trump could win,” said one of the most experienced presidential campaign operatives I know. “But this isn’t 2016. Biden’s margins are bigger and more locked.” While driving from Las Vegas to Scottsdale today, I reached out to Democrats to get a sense of how big they thought a potential Biden victory could be. Instead of a flood of gloating texts and predictions about the size of a new Democratic-controlled Senate, most people were wary about being overconfident, especially people inside campaigns. There was a clear demarcation between Democrats who worked on the 2016 campaign and those who didn’t. “The question is how close to the oven were you,” said the former Obama administration official. The conventional wisdom of those who are willing to believe the polls was summed up by Dylan Loewe, who was a speechwriter for Biden and a book ghostwriter for Kamala Harris. “I think Trump’s attacks on mail voting are going to backfire spectacularly,” he said. “So I think this wave is going to be a few feet taller than the polls suggest. But I still get into a fetal position when I think about it. I do think Biden will win Texas. I think we’ll win the Kansas Senate seat. I think Alaska’s in play. And I think the Democrats will win enough state delegations in the house to prevent the house from installing Trump in a contingent election. You can put this on the record if you want. If Trump wins, the last thing on my mind will be my shitty predictions.” One senior Biden adviser offered a range of estimates that put things in perspective. He said he thought it was possible for Biden to win 413 electoral votes, which would be the largest electoral vote victory since 1988, when George H. W. Bush crushed Michael Dukakis. But he also noted that Trump still could have a path to reelection. “I think Trump’s EV ceiling is 283,” he said. To get to that number, Trump would need to not just hold on to Ohio, Georgia, Texas and North Carolina, but also win the swing states of Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, and Arizona. Which brings us back to the Grand Canyon State, the Trump 2016 state that, if Biden were to take, would prevent most scenarios for a Trump victory. While winning 413 electoral votes would be nice, most Biden strategists are obsessed with just getting to 270 as efficiently as possible. “My gut says the true path of least resistance is Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, NE-2,” the senior Biden adviser said in a text. “Don’t need Pennsylvania, Ohio or Florida.” He added, “I am least bullish on Florida and most bullish on Arizona.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Check out the new season of the Global Translations podcast, dropping tomorrow. In the first episode, Luiza Savage and Ryan Heath look at how the pandemic has interrupted global supply chains. Reach out at rlizza@politico.com and rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @ryanlizza and @renurayasam.
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| | A message from The National Council on Election Integrity: The National Council on Election Integrity, a bipartisan group of political, government, and civic leaders, was formed to ensure that every American’s vote is counted this November. Stand with the council and demand every vote be counted: take the pledge at CountEveryVote.org. | | | | | WHAT TEXAS DEMOCRATS COULD ACTUALLY WIN — Forward Majority, a national Democratic super PAC, announced today it would spend more than $12 million for ads in Texas statehouse races, up from $2.5 million in 2018. Democrats in the state haven’t totally given up on carrying the state for Biden or flipping a statewide office, the party has a far more narrow and more realistic aim this year: to win nine seats in the state House, which would give them control of the chamber, writes your host Renuka Rayasam. Why this year? If Democrats can control the state House they will have a seat at the table during next year’s congressional redistricting process. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is not up for reelection this year, and the state Senate will retain its Republican majority come January. But a Democratically controlled state House could block maps that it thinks are drawn unfairly. How close are they? Texas Democrats picked up 12 state House seats in 2018. The state party is targeting 22 state House seats this year, about half of which are in Dallas and its surrounding areas. In nine of those 22 seats, Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke beat Republican Ted Cruz in 2018. Can they do it? It’s been 18 years since Democrats controlled the Texas state House and 26 years since Texas elected a Democrat to statewide office. But the party has some key advantages this year: fast growing suburbs, a relatively unpopular president and gobs of money. What could stop them? Despite the momentum, there are a lot of reasons why Democrats could lose. Republicans point to a January special election where a Democratic state House candidate got beaten by 16 points. The lack of straight ticket voting, in which a voter can select all candidates of one party with a single button or check mark, could also hurt Democrats — many think the gains that Democrats made two years ago, when Texans could still vote straight ticket, had a lot to do with O’Rourke’s coattails. Who are the power players in local governments across the country? Check out The Fifty for a look at state leaders driving politics, shaping policy and influencing Washington.
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| | HELP BUILD SOLUTIONS FOR THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL HEALTH: POLITICO is a proud partner of the ninth annual Meridian Summit, focused on The Rise of Global Health Diplomacy. The virtual Meridian Summit will engage a global audience and the sharpest minds in diplomacy, business, government and beyond to build a more equitable economic recovery and save more lives. Join the conversation to help secure the future of our global health. | | | | | | | STAHLING TACTICS — At the White House this afternoon, Trump ended a fiery interview taping with CBS News’ “60 Minutes,” proceeded to launch an attack against the interviewer on Twitter for not wearing a mask, and threatened to post the interview before it aired, White House reporter Meridith McGraw writes. The drama unfolded after Trump was frustrated with the line of questioning and how the interview was being conducted, said one person familiar with the episode, while another in the room described the president as “pissed.” The president spent more than 40 minutes with CBS News correspondent Lesley Stahl, and did not proceed to shoot a second portion of the interview that included Vice President Mike Pence. Following a short break, the president decided he had spent enough time in the interview, one White House official said. The official described Stahl as “very antagonistic,” and said she “seemed ill prepared in a wide-ranging interview.” The president was expected to shoot part of the interview with Pence, who went on to spend 15 minutes with Stahl and the “60 Minutes” crew.
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| | | | | LINDSEY GRAHAM’S WILD RIDE — He’s been in the Senate since 2003, but this year could be his last. In the latest POLITICO Dispatch, congressional reporter Andrew Desiderio traces Lindsey Graham’s transformation from a moderate Republican known for working across the aisle to a staunch defender of Trump — and explains why that’s put him at risk of losing his seat.
| | | | OBRIGADO — Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro endorsed Trump today, adding his name to a list of foreign leaders who have given their support to Trump’s reelection campaign, Nick Niedzwiadek and Lara Seligman write. “God willing I will be able to attend” Trump’s second inauguration, Bolsonaro said through a translator, adding that he won’t “interfere” in the election but “it is from the heart.” The remarks came moments after U.S. and Brazilian officials signed a new trade agreement at an event in Brasilia, Brazil, with national security adviser Robert O’Brien.
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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell departs the weekly Senate Republican policy luncheon in the Hart Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill. | Getty Images | | | ‘ON A PATH’ — Speaker Nancy Pelosi said today that she and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are “on a path” to a massive coronavirus relief deal. Pelosi and Mnuchin plan to speak again Wednesday after a productive, 45-minute call this afternoon. Though a deal was not reached by Pelosi’s self-imposed deadline tonight, enough progress was made that both sides felt like talks should continue, Congress reporters Heather Caygle and Sarah Ferris write. Pelosi later told reporters that she hoped to get something done by the end of the week: “That’s the plan. That’s what I would hope.” But the California Democrat’s biggest obstacle may be across the Capitol — with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell privately urging the White House not to settle with Pelosi before the election.
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| | GLOBAL PULSE, GLOBAL PURPOSE: At a high-stakes moment when global health has become a household concern, it is pivotal to keep up with the politics and policy driving change. Global Pulse connects leaders, policymakers and advocates to the people and politics driving global health. Join the conversation and subscribe today for this new weekly newsletter. | | | | | | | | |
| | | BORDER CONTROL — Renu, quarantining with two toddlers, emails from El Paso: On Saturday my family — mostly my husband — began Googling things to do. The zoo, public pools and other city-run activities have long been closed here. So is a family dairy that doubles as a petting zoo. The science museum in nearby Las Cruces, N.M., holds weekend animal feedings, but this Saturday the snake feeding was canceled. We settled on a botanical garden. It was open, but there wasn’t another person in sight all morning, not even staff. We dropped $6 into a lockbox and wandered around with our kids. On the way back, we stopped at a Taco Cabana, hoping to get lunch and margaritas on a patio overlooking the mountains. We had to settle for drive-through. The fast-food spot had closed its outdoor seating area the previous day because of the city’s tightened Covid restrictions. If pandemic frivolity had arrived at our house, the past several days jolted us back to reality. Covid cases have been rapidly rising in El Paso. While we spent our Saturday looking at desert plants, 449 Covid patients spent the day in the city’s hospitals, a new record. With two little ones, our quarantine life hasn’t been all that different from normal life. But we had started to imagine breaking free from the unending threat of Covid and its attendant limits on life. This morning, I woke to a WhatsApp message that a baby in one of our children’s daycare classes had tested positive for Covid. It has been nearly two weeks since the baby, who is symptom free, was in daycare. I think they and we are in the clear. But it won’t be the last close call. So for now, for the foreseeable future, we’ll stop trying to Google away our restlessness and stick to our Saturday routine: take-out, walks around the block, Sesame Street, and visits to an empty playground.
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| | A message from The National Council on Election Integrity: The National Council on Election Integrity is a bipartisan group of political, government, and civic leaders united around protecting the integrity of our elections. Our country has held successful elections through good times and bad, and this November is no different. Individual voters, the media, candidates, and the political parties have a duty to be patient while local election officials count every vote. Because no matter who we choose to represent us, in America we count every vote. Stand with the National Council on Election Integrity: take the pledge at CountEveryVote.org. | | | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. | |
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