 | BY RENUKA RAYASAM | With help from Myah Ward PANDEMIC 101 — In the early months of Covid-19, Sweden was Exhibit A on what happens when a country doesn’t issue stay-at-home orders. Early results weren’t promising: Lots of deaths, no real economic gains — though some advocates of herd immunity say the country has at least seen a lower infection rate this summer. It will probably take years to learn whether there were any benefits, and whether they outweighed the costs. Now there’s a new Sweden to study: American college campuses. Watching thousands of students gather in classes, in dorms, and in social settings is providing another laboratory for epidemiologists. Here’s what they’re learning: Herd immunity won’t save us anytime soon. More than 88,000 people have been infected across about 1,200 college campuses. That’s a fraction of the country’s total student population of 20 million. About 60 people have died, mostly college employees. Experts believe that herd immunity will kick in when about 70 percent of the population is infected — assuming an initial infection provides lasting immunity, which scientists still aren’t sure about. “It is almost impossible to imagine a college campus will get to herd immunity,” said Howard Forman, a health policy professor at the Yale School of Management, who is leading a team that rates college Covid dashboards. Asymptomatic exposure is a real problem. College students are carrying Covid without symptoms and then spreading it to the general population, who are then getting sick at much higher rates than the students are. “When I talk to a lot of colleges and universities, the biggest concern is fear of downstream health in the general population,” said Ramesh Raskar, an associate professor at MIT Media Lab, which has been developing contact tracing apps and other technology to contain Covid. “We always suspected asymptomatic transfers but now see they are real. It is frightening.” Social distancing has been more clearly defined. There’s still been a lack of clarity about what counts as close physical contact. Colleges are showing how the calculation is more involved than just remaining six feet apart and staying outdoors. “Before colleges opened, close contact meant going to a barber or people in a meat factory together or going to a senior care center,” Raskar said. “Now it’s more complex.” Cases are spreading at outdoor events if people spend prolonged periods in proximity, without masks. NYU suspended 20 students for throwing a party in Washington Square Park. Telling people what to do isn’t enough . Trying to force students to follow rules by issuing strict guidelines and handing out punishments isn’t keeping them from spreading Covid. Education, awareness and clear public health messaging about the importance of wearing masks, downstream risks to vulnerable populations and the contagiousness of the disease has proven to be far more effective at containing Covid, Raskar said. The campuses that are doing well are in areas without much community spread, Forman said. They also have the money to conduct widespread testing and have students who are highly compliant with guidelines. Just a handful of non-compliant students threaten an entire college reopening plan. The University of Illinois had a comprehensive Covid plan and even accounted for parties, but a dozen students who failed to isolate after testing positive for Covid sparked an outbreak. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition. The pandemic has killed Austin’s Cap City Comedy Club, a former favorite date-night haunt. We got to see Raul Sanchez, Gary Gulman, Felipe Esparza, Ali Siddiq, Emo Philipps and so many other good and not-so-good comedians there. Reach out rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.
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| | BECOME A CHINA WATCHER : Many experts believe that if there is an "October surprise" leading up to Election Day, it will be a foreign policy-oriented development. What would be the likely scenario involving China? Some say a Phase One trade deal collapse could upend the election. Are they right? Join the conversation and gain expert insight from informed and influential voices in government, business, law, and tech. China Watcher is as much of a platform as it is a newsletter. Subscribe today. | | | | | | 
A woman carries her dog in a backpack as she waits at a traffic light in Beijing. | Getty Images | | | IF YOU AIN’T FIRST, YOU’RE LAST — All summer long, pundits have been warned: Yes, Joe Biden is ahead in the polls — but so was Hillary Clinton. There’s one key difference that’s often overlooked, though, senior campaigns and elections editor Steve Shepard writes. Biden is much closer to the magic 50 percent mark — both nationally and in Electoral College battleground states. That puts President Donald Trump in a much worse situation, needing to not only attract skeptical undecided voters but also peel supporters away from Biden, whose poll numbers have been remarkably durable. And the president is running out of time for both. According to the latest RealClearPolitics average, Biden is sitting at 49.3 percent in national surveys and has a 6.2-point lead over Trump. That’s significantly higher than Clinton’s 44.9 percent mark this time four years ago, which was good for only a 1-point lead. It’s the same story in many of the battleground states: Biden is at or within 2 points of majority support in enough states to lock down an Electoral College victory, compared to Clinton’s low-to-mid-40s scores in mid-September 2016 in the same states, some of which she ended up losing when late-deciding voters went decisively for Trump.
| | YOU GET A VACCINE, YOU GET A VACCINE — Trump said today that there will be enough vaccines for every American by April, contradicting administration health officials who have projected the country would not reach that point until mid-2021. “Hundreds of millions of doses will be available every month and we expect to have enough vaccines for every American by April,” he said at a White House press briefing. Notably, the president did not repeat his familiar prediction that the government would authorize a vaccine by Election Day, which top government scientists have said is unlikely, health care reporter Sarah Owermohle writes. The FDA has not yet given emergency authorization or approval to any of the coronavirus vaccines now in development. Vaccines from Moderna, Pfizer and AstraZeneca are in the final stage of clinical trials in the United States, and the government has pre-purchased hundreds of millions of doses of at least a half-dozen experimental shots. Backtrack — The CDC now says that close contacts of people with Covid-19 should be tested, regardless of whether they have symptoms — reversing the controversial recommendations it made last month, reportedly over the advice of agency scientists. The CDC’s new testing guidelines bluntly counsel people who have been within six feet of a person “with documented SARS-CoV-2 infection” for at least 15 minutes to get screened. “You need a test,” reads the latest version of the document, released today. “Due to the significance of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission, this guidance further reinforces the need to test asymptomatic persons, including close contacts of a person with documented SARS-CoV-2 infection,” the guidance also says. The agency came under fire from public health experts last month when it altered its testing guidelines to stop promoting testing to most asymptomatic people with extended exposure to someone with a confirmed infection, health care reporter David Lim writes. It left the decision about whether to test such people to state and local public health officials and health providers. In addition to recommending testing for close contacts of sick people, the CDC now says that contacts should self-quarantine at home for 14 days, even if they test negative — and stay away from other household members in a separate bedroom if possible. “A single negative test does not mean you will remain negative at any time point after that test,” the new CDC guidelines warn. “Even if you have a negative test, you should still self-isolate for 14 days.”
| | Nightly asked you: What changes from the Covid era do you want to remain, even after a vaccine arrives? Below are some of your lightly edited responses. “Families spending more time together. Less business flying and more virtual business work. Saving the environment by using less fuel and decreasing air pollution.” — Ann Gainey, registered nurse, Wind Lake, Wis. “No more shaking hands of strangers. The firm handshake of someone you have never met before doesn’t accomplish anything that cannot be done with momentary eye contact and a nod of the head.” — Brian Finger, medical lab technician, Tampa, Fla. “NONE. I would like a return to the ‘normal’ past with the ability to go to a movie in an inside venue and see the flick prior to its being released on Netflix. I would like to return to overcrowded restaurants and argue with the maître d about my lost reservation without both of us wearing masks. I would not mind giving up the ‘joy’ of adding a take-out martini to my take-out order. There is absolutely nothing from this ‘Covid era’ that I wish to retain if/when this disaster ends.” — Harry McKone, retired, Palm Springs, Calif.
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“I’d love to see the renewed sense of community stay a while, for caring and kindness for others to be fashionable again. America needs that. All of those special spaces for street parking for curbside pickup have made it easy for us to support our local restaurants, and I’d definitely vote for the take-home cocktails too!” — JENNY CONNER NELMS, SENIOR POLICY ADVISOR, ARLINGTON, VA. |
| “Curbside beverage options are nice; masks when shopping; keep the extra cleaning in hotels.” — Michael Hutson, restaurant manager, Midland, Texas “No-contact food delivery has been a game changer with noisy dogs and a baby! Please always leave my food on the front porch and text me that it’s here without a knock or awkwardly answering the door in my PJs.” — Lindsay Brown, IT project manager, Clark, N.J. “I hope that insurance companies continue to support and encourage tele-appointments with doctors. This should make it easier to get in-person appointments when really needed.” — David Warner Bracken, professor, Atlanta “Cats in meetings.” — Charlene MacDonald, consultant, Washington, D.C.
| | THE WEEK THAT WAS — Matt Wuerker takes us through the latest in political cartoons and satire in his Punchlines Weekend Wrap, including climate change and the California wildfires, and Trump’s discussion of “herd mentality” and Covid-19.
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16,000 The number of employees United Airlines said will be furloughed if there is not further congressional funding for the airlines’ Payroll Support Program. United leaders acknowledged in a letter to Congress that they expect that passenger demand will be down more than 70 percent over last year and that it won’t bounce back “until a vaccine is widely available to the public and international markets reopen to travel.” |
| | | MADRID HEADS BACK INSIDE — More than 850,000 people in Madrid will face at least two weeks of tighter restrictions on movement to combat a rise in coronavirus cases , the regional government announced today. People living in 37 areas of the Spanish capital will be asked to stay home as much as possible, but they will be allowed to go to work and school, and look after the elderly or vulnerable. Social gatherings will be cut back in size from 10 to six people, and limits will be reimposed on the number of people allowed in shops, libraries, places of worship, cinemas, sporting facilities and theaters, Cristina Gallardo writes. Leisure facilities, hospitality businesses and shops will have to close by 10 p.m. The restrictions, which will last for 14 days from Monday, have been imposed in areas where the coronavirus rate has been above 1,000 cases per 100,000 residents in the last two weeks. The 37 areas, many of them located in the south of the capital, account for 25 percent of Covid-19 cases in the region. Speaking at a press conference today, Madrid’s regional president Isabel Díaz Ayuso, stressed Madrid must avoid another state of alarm and another strict lockdown, which would be “disastrous” for the economy.
| | 86ING 1619 — Trump visited the National Archives Museum — that tabernacle of American history that houses the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, the Bill of Rights — to deliver a speech Thursday attacking what he calls the left-wing indoctrination of American students. His speech didn’t so much open a new front in the culture wars he has waged throughout his presidency as much as it restarted one of the country’s oldest battles, senior media writer Jack Shafer writes: Who controls our common history? The primary target of Trump’s speech was the 1619 Project , a special issue of the New York Times Magazine published in August 2019 whose findings were widely contested inside academia even though its lead essay won a Pulitzer Prize for commentary. The package’s aim, in the words of its editor, was to reframe 1619, the year the first enslaved people were brought into the country, as the nation’s “birth year.” But the Times didn’t stop there. It also produced a school curriculum designed to bring that narrative into the classroom, and Trump’s anger extended to the educators who might want to use it. These people, Trump said, seek to “radically transform America.” Like many of Trump’s wildest pronouncements — declaring Antifa a terrorist organization, threatening to shut down Twitter, claiming “ ultimate authority” to reopen quarantined America — this new attempt to dictate how history is taught will mostly likely fade into the background. The president has no direct power over the school boards who set education policy, let alone the textbooks from which history is taught, or the teachers who do it. All he can do is jawbone — but as we’ve learned, if all he can do is jawbone, he’s more than happy to do so.
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