POLITICO NIGHTLY: Covid shows America its new political colors

By Ryan Lizza and Renuka Rayasam FAILING OUR CORONA TEST — It was possible today to get in a car on the outer banks of North Carolina and drive straight across the country to the beaches of Los Angeles and never hit a state that is trending in the right direction when it comes to coronavirus. You could make a similar trip from the Canadian border in Washington state to the Mexican border in Texas, according to the latest data from the folks at Covid Exit Strategy, a nonpartisan group of public health and crisis experts tracking state-level responses to the pandemic. The organization uses three colors to classify states: green (“trending better”), yellow (“making progress”) and red (“trending poorly”). Almost half of the map (24 states) is red. There are only five green states. Party politics doesn’t fully explain the variations. Liberal meccas like Vermont, California and Oregon are struggling, along with deep South states like Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. It may be time to retire the familiar trope of Red versus Blue America , when it comes to understanding the political response to coronavirus, and replace it with Red versus Green America. Earlier this year, at the beginning of the pandemic, there was a moment when tribal politics hadn’t overwhelmed what should have been mostly a scientific and public health debate. That was well before masks became political, before public health officials warned right-wing anti-quarantine activists against gathering for protests, before some prominent conservatives said Democrats wanted to stall reopening in order to hurt President Donald Trump, and before right-wing anti-quarantine activists attacked public health officials for being hypocrites. All of that seems besides the point now. The virus is spreading and it is difficult to find leaders in either party who have risen to the challenge of stopping it with the patience, sacrifice and determination required. Even the much-admired response of Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York, one of the few green states, is now coming under scrutiny. A new and thorough investigation by The Wall Street Journal is headlined, “How New York’s Coronavirus Response Made the Pandemic Worse.” “We clearly are slipping back, given the fact that you’ve got all these states that opened up and are now trending poorly,” said Zeke Emanuel, chair of the department of medical ethics and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania and an adviser to Joe Biden. “Countries that have had more consistent enforcement of their public health measures are the ones that have done better. Our ability to implement these measures and stick to them for more than a week has been a problem.” Emanuel added, “Coughing, sneezing, yelling and singing — those are the four things that really increase the transmission, and those are the four things we really need to cut off. We haven’t done a great job and we continue to not do a great job. But it’s not a partisan issue. It’s a who is taking this serious issue.” In other words the real problem isn’t just America’s leaders but the classically American virtue that is sometimes a defect: impatience. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition. How did I not know cactus smuggling has become a global criminal enterprise? Reach out with tips: rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.   MONDAY - A VIRTUAL CONVERSATION ON WATER SECURITY : How can we secure long-term solutions at a time when the Covid-19 pandemic consumes the attention and resources of local and state leaders? Join POLITICO on Monday, June 15 at 10:20 a.m. EDT for a virtual panel discussion on the policies and legislation needed at the state, regional and federal levels to meet the water needs of Western states. REGISTER HERE.     Graduates of the Huazhong University of Science and Technology take photos in Wuhan, China. | Getty Images Around the Nation SUMMER SLAM — Sharp rises in coronavirus cases are prompting governors and mayors in Oregon, Utah and Tennessee to pause reopening plans , while officials in Houston and elsewhere are warning of the potential need for new restrictions, health care reporters Dan Goldberg, Alice Miranda Ollstein and Rachel Roubein write. Oregon’s Democratic Gov. Kate Brown announced Thursday night she would pause reopening plans for at least one week after the number of daily new infections nearly doubled in the past week. “The virus makes the timeline,” Brown said. “We don’t make the timeline.” Utah Republican Gov. Gary Herbert earlier this week issued a similar weeklong pause. Nashville Mayor John Cooper, a Democrat, also halted reopening plans, citing a growing outbreak in the southeast part of the city, though citywide cases have declined in the past month. Murphy’s law — Days after New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy violated his own executive order barring large public gatherings by participating in two protests sparked by the police killing of George Floyd, some local leaders are openly defying his executive orders that restrict certain activities. On Wednesday night, the City Council in overwhelmingly progressive Asbury Park voted to allow indoor dining with social distancing restrictions in place, even though that’s still not allowed under Murphy’s executive order. In northern New Jersey, the Republican mayor of Wayne cited Murphy’s own actions in justifying his decision to “facilitate” graduation ceremonies for the town’s two high schools, in violation of another order limiting the number of people who can gather outside. The defiance by local authorities puts Murphy, a progressive Democrat, in the throes of a political balancing act, New Jersey Playbook author Matt Friedman writes, having to decide whether to send state authorities in to enforce his executive orders or let them slide, potentially opening the door for more local officials to openly challenge his edicts. It’s a dilemma other governors have faced over the past three months, but only now has hit New Jersey, which has recorded the second-highest number of Covid-19 cases and deaths in the nation, behind only New York. From the Health Desk COUNTING COVID — Total deaths could hit 200,000, from 113,000 now, as early as Sept. 2, though that’s the far upper range of the prediction, according to the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. This week, the institute extended the Covid forecasts in its influential model, used by the White House, from Aug. 4 to Oct. 1. After a summer decline, daily death rates are expected to start growing again in late August, picking up steam through September. Much of the predicted uptick is due to school re-openings, though loosened pandemic restrictions and increased travel are also assumed to boost transmission rates. According to the model, deaths will start ticking up first in Florida, Arizona, Georgia and Colorado, while New York, New Jersey, California and Michigan are expected to have the highest numbers of deaths by Oct. 1. The model has come under fire from critics who say that early on it relied too heavily on data from Wuhan, where restrictions were stricter and confirmed cases were put in isolation, while the U.S. took a more piecemeal approach and didn’t require complete isolation of the newly infected. Early projections fluctuated wildly, but were far more optimistic than other models and fostered White House hope that the worst of the crisis was over months ago. In April, the model projected 60,000 deaths by Aug. 4, a number the U.S. hit before May arrived. The group has repeatedly defended its approach, saying that it’s willing to make long-range projections when many other models will only forecast a few weeks into the future. But it’s also made changes to its approach. The model no longer relies on data from Wuhan and it now incorporates mobility data, as well as pneumonia seasonality, population density, air pollution and a host of other factors that could affect the death rate. The model also now accounts for mask use, which the group says could reduce transmission by up to 50 percent. PUNCHLINES UNPRECEDENTED USE OF UNPRECEDENTED — “America seems to be having quite a moment,” Matt Wuerker says in the latest edition of Punchlines , as he covers the latest cartoons and political humor dealing with the pandemic, protests and economic volatility. First In Nightly VIDEO KILLED THE DOCTOR’S VISIT — An explosion of virtual care during the pandemic is raising expectations that Washington will make sure Americans can continue video chatting with their doctors after the health crisis subsides, writes eHealth reporter Mohana Ravindranath. Advocates for the technology are now making an all-out push to cement a permanent role for telehealth , warning that a rapid retrenchment could devastate patients while the coronavirus is still spreading. But telehealth advocates will have to win over skeptics in Congress, as well as in the Medicare agency, who have worried that telehealth is a ripe target for fraudsters or could drive up America’s massive health care tab by encouraging overuse of services. Trump’s Medicare chief, Seema Verma, recently declared telehealth is here to stay, though she said federal officials would likely have to tighten some measures without new permission from Congress. “I just can’t imagine going back because people recognize the value of this,” Verma said at an event hosted by Stat News this week. Ask The Audience Nightly asked you: If there's a second wave, which pandemic restriction do you hope doesn’t come back? Below are some of your lightly edited responses. “If we have a second surge, with more states experiencing what New York experienced in April, I personally wouldn’t pick and choose any part of an effort to slow it down. Yes, I’m tired of this lockdown, but that’s a small price to pay.” — Dianne Armer, retired, Santa Rosa, Calif. “Although the restriction hasn’t been lifted, I am hoping that there aren't wide-sweeping travel bans. Between the closing of EU borders, both external and internal, and the vague U.S. travel ban on Schengen countries, it's caused a lot of loneliness and uncertainty.” — Ryann McQuaid, finance, Brooklyn, N.Y. “I would not like to see beaches, parks, golf courses, etc., closed again. Such a limited risk and such mentally enriching environments.” — Robert Halleck, poet, Del Mar, Calif. “The restriction I have liked the least is not having access to my local public libraries. Reading (and movies on DVD) has been a godsend during this pandemic. I understand the complications that reopening would mean because of the disinfecting of each and every item checked in and out, but it is the one thing I miss the most.” — Anne Martin, unemployed, Kensington, Md. “Access to state and national parks. We must get out and see a horizon of nature rather than the dead-end avenue of Covid.” — Brian McConnell, retired, Mesa, Ariz. “Restrictions on family visits to seniors in congregate living situations are necessary, but there’s been so little creativity in allowing in-person visits, even just to help manage the day-to-day fixes in an apartment — let alone emotional support and contact.” — Linda Green, manager, Newton, Mass. “Not much has changed in my daily routine since lockdown started. But as an American living in Germany, I would be sad to see another shutdown of beer gardens.” — Sierra Stalcup, communications consultant, Berlin “Ten-person limits on gatherings. My fiancée and I are getting married in December, Covid or no Covid. We both have several siblings. It would be nice to have them present, and not just ourselves, our parents and a priest.” — Ted Steinhauser, administrative coordinator, College Station, Texas The Global Fight SACRE BLEU — French President Emmanuel Macron is under increasing pressure to address policing and race issues after a series of protests and counter-protests in recent days, France correspondent Rym Momtaz writes. Police officers took to the streets of Paris today to denounce what they say is a lack of political support, days after thousands marched in the French capital against alleged police brutality and racial discrimination by law enforcement. Anti-racism and police brutality protests are planned across several cities over the weekend, and Macron will address the nation on Sunday evening but, so far, his office has said only that there’s a possibility he might discuss the issue. The speech is mainly meant to take stock of how the country is doing a month after the coronavirus lockdown was gradually lifted, and to discuss the economic recovery plans. Nightly Number 502,209 The number of people who came through TSA security checkpoints nationwide on Thursday, according to the agency . It marked the first time the traveler count surpassed a half million since March 21. A year ago, 2,675,686 travelers were screened at checkpoints across the country. Parting Words WHERE EVERYBODY KNOWS YOUR TEMPERATURE — After weeks of quarantinis on video calls, people are starting to venture out to newly open restaurants and bars. But socializing in the age of Covid — a mixture of guilt, shame, relief, anxiety — has gotten a lot more fraught. Armed with a mask, wipes and loads of hand sanitizer, your host visited Loro, an Austin smokehouse from Aaron Franklin, known for his eponymous barbecue joint, and Tyson Cole, a locally famous sushi chef, on a beautiful evening last week to see what happy hour looks like now. Rather than plopping down at an available table, people had to wait in a socially distanced line to check in, so an employee could gather their information for contact tracing efforts and then seat them far from other groups. Most people were relieved to be out of their houses — for many it was the first time they had ventured out since March. They were celebrating birthdays and toasting graduations, they were out on dates, or they were catching up with friends they hadn’t seen in weeks. Some felt giddy to get a meal and drinks in a restaurant. Others nervously listed the precautions they were taking. And some said that they didn’t want people to know they were outside, for fear of being judged. Masked waiters and signs marking distancing guidelines were visible reminders that the virus is still on the loose. I didn’t stay for drinks, just chatted with people from an appropriate distance, but I could see how it would have been hard to relax even as that’s what these people desperately wanted. The highlight, for me, was driving home in the traffic-free Austin night.   HAPPENING MONDAY 9 a.m. EDT - "INSIDE THE RECOVERY" PART III: PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW WITH MIKE SOMMERS, CEO OF AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE: Global oil markets took a plunge, and worldwide demand for fuel remains weak — making the expectation the industry’s recovery will be lengthy. Join POLITICO Playbook co-authors Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman for a conversation with Mike Sommers focused on how Covid-19 has slammed the energy industry, the role API could play in the upcoming 2020 election, and what the industry needs from the federal government moving forward. 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