POLITICO NIGHTLY: If you half-open an economy, is it closed?

By Ben White and Renuka Rayasam

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HALFWAY THERE — At 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday, the federal government will likely tell us the economy declined somewhere between 3 percent and 6 percent on an annualized basis in the first quarter of 2020. It will only be a light appetizer for the horrible feast to come. Next Friday, we'll learn that the unemployment rate is somewhere close to 20 percent. In July, we'll find out the economy probably is tanking an annualized 30 percent or more in the second quarter. So it makes sense that some states want to reopen for business as fast as possible. Americans, meanwhile, are of two minds. Everyone is sick to death of frozen pizza, Zoom meetings and persistent existential dread. And a new poll suggests nearly 90 percent fear an imminent economic collapse. At the same time, another recent poll shows 70 percent of Americans favor staying at home rather than rushing back to work too fast and risk new coronavirus outbreaks. Lots of businesses will remain shut. Most states now starting Phase One of the reopening process like Colorado, Alaska, Iowa are doing so with provisions that require things like half-filled stores, movie theaters and restaurants. Iowa said it would open horse and dog tracks on Friday but with no spectators. Jets could take to the skies for months or even years with few passengers paying huge prices until there is a Covid-19 vaccine. Only Georgia seems to be going all-in, reopening pretty much everything. President Donald Trump himself rebuked that approach, freaking out other governors. All of this means that any economic recovery, at least in the near-term, will be agonizingly slow. Just because your local gym reopens doesn't mean you'll go there, even if you've packed on the Covid 15. Over half of Americans said in a Reuters/Ipsos poll that places like sports stadiums, movie theaters and concert venues should stay shut until a vaccine emerges. Consumer confidence plunged in April, suggesting Americans are not exactly set to shop until they drop once stores open. We are also likely to run out of some of the federal rescue money by summer as certain expanded unemployment benefits disappear. The small business rescue fund keeps running low on cash . State and local governments are getting crushed. And Republicans, mostly all-in on the reopening approach, indicate they will take a hard line on doling out more federal funds, raising the possibility of a still-staggered economy walking off a coronavirus cliff this fall. At the moment, given our poor preparation and testing capability — coupled with the fact that we have no idea if surviving the virus creates immunity — it appears to be almost an impossible Rubik's cube to solve. New outbreaks would force renewed panic and further lockdowns. That would knock the economy back even further and possibly crush a currently very hopeful — perhaps even irrationally exuberant — stock market. The current situation is unsustainable. People need to work and get out of their homes. But they are afraid to do it. As painful as it seems, maybe staying closed is better than being half-open: Some economists and medical experts suggest the best way forward is to endure a little bit more short-term mental and financial strain, and then, once testing and tracing capacity are dramatically enhanced, turn to something like a fully operational economy. Or maybe they're only half right. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition . If you're curious, here's the backstory of one grocery delivery worker. Reach out with tips: rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.

A message from PhRMA: In these unprecedented times, America's biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: beating COVID-19. We are dedicating our top scientists and using our investments in new technologies to speed the development of safe and effective vaccines. Explore our efforts.

A medical professional works at a drive-thru testing site in Somerville, Mass. | Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

First In Nightly

WAVE OF ANXIETY — Nearly 8 in 10 voters, 79 percent, say it's either very or somewhat likely there will be a second wave of coronavirus cases in the next year, according to this week's POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, Steve Shepard writes. Only 9 percent say it's somewhat or very unlikely there will be a second wave. Almost 3 in 4 voters, 73 percent, say Americans should continue social distancing as long as is needed to curb the spread of the virus, even if it damages the economy — though that's down slightly from 76 percent last week. The full poll will be released Wednesday morning. UNHEALTHY HUMAN SERVICES — The coronavirus outbreak burning its way through the U.S. health system has taken a different kind of toll on the people at the center of the nation's response, writes health reporter Dan Diamond . Officials at the Health and Human Services department headquarters have worked around the clock since mid-January. But the Trump administration's repeated stumbles have provoked a daily deluge of attacks, watchdog probes and open speculation about the future of the department's leader, Secretary Alex Azar. "I don't think people appreciate how tired the department is," said one former Trump HHS appointee. "Your effectiveness wears down after you've been in a fight — and for 100 days, HHS has been kicked in the teeth." Various arms of HHS are urgently searching for a vaccine, struggling to beef up Medicaid, implementing an amorphous new payment scheme to reimburse hospitals for coronavirus treatment, determining whether to approve new drugs under intense pressure from Trump, and trying to jumpstart the perpetually behind-the-curve testing system.

Around the Nation

LEGISLATING FROM HOME — The House dropped its plans to return to Washington, but more than a dozen state legislative bodies have already changed their rules to allow them to hold hearings or even vote remotely, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Two states, Oregon and Wisconsin, had rules on the books enabling them to carry out virtual voting in case of an emergency. In New Jersey, lawmakers voted by phone in recent weeks. In New York, lawmakers can vote via webcam, but they haven't yet actually done so yet. In Utah, the legislature convened its first-ever virtual special session. In Arkansas, the general assembly worked on the state budget and conducted other state business from the University of Arkansas at Little Rock basketball arena, where they socially distanced by spacing out among the seats. More states may follow: In Massachusetts, House lawmakers are set to vote Wednesday on emergency rules that would allow them to start taking phone votes. In Illinois, some lawmakers want to allow remote voting so they can approve their state budget, but to do so they'd first need to meet in-person in Springfield. (h/t our colleagues around the country: Shia Kapos, Stephanie Murray, Katherine Landergan and Bill Mahoney) SIM COVID — Lifting coronavirus restrictions in Georgia a month from now could cause more than 23,000 deaths through the summer, according to a new simulation tool from Massachusetts General Hospital and Georgia Tech. That's compared with fewer than 2,000 deaths if stay-at-home orders are kept in place another three months. The tool looks at case counts and death rates in different states under three scenarios: minimal restrictions, current restrictions and a complete state lockdown. The researchers say they want policymakers to use the tool to figure how and when to end shutdown orders but admit that it's a blunt instrument. States are using more tailored approaches to reopening than the tool permits — they may allow some businesses to open, while others close, or they may allow travel while keeping other restrictions in place.

TOMORROW - A LOOK AT SWEDEN'S UNIQUE APPROACH TO COVID-19: Sweden's coronavirus response allowed many businesses and schools to remain open, drawing much attention from around the world. Join Global Translations author Ryan Heath tomorrow at 10 a.m. EDT for a virtual discussion with Swedish Minister for Foreign Affairs Ann Linde about why Sweden took the approach that it did, its view of the World Health Organization, and the role Sweden wants the European Union to play in the recovery. Have questions? They'll answer as many as they can. REGISTER HERE TO PARTICIPATE.

Talking to the Experts

With coronavirus and the presidential election coming in November, what is the nightmare scenario? "I'm worried about large numbers of voters being disenfranchised, through no fault of their own, because it's not safe to vote. You have expanded vote-by-mail for people afraid to vote in public. But what if the mail system collapses? You know, the Postal Service not being funded, the pandemic spreading throughout the postal system, and mail becoming unreliable — there's all kinds of things that could happen. So we need to have in-person voting, and that needs to be safe, or as safe as possible. Preparations need to happen right now. If you're expecting five times the number of absentee-ballot applications — like Wisconsin saw — you're going to need to have a printer set up for that, and you're gonna need to have a procedure set up to mail those ballots out. And if people have to apply for absentee ballots individually, those are all going to have to be processed. Lots needs to happen now that wouldn't ordinarily have to happen quite so early." — Rick Hasen, professor of law and political science at UC-Irvine and author of "Election Meltdown," as told to POLITICO Magazine's Zack Stanton.     Ask The Audience Our question for readers this week: Seeing any interesting, fun or meaningful signs related to the coronavirus? Snap a photo sometime this week and send it to Renu at rrayasam@politico.com, and we'll share the best ones on Friday. An election worker, right, practices social distancing from a voter during the 7th Congressional District special election to replace the late Rep. Elijah Cummings in Windsor Mill, Md. | Julio Cortez/AP Photo The Global Fight NORTHERN EXPOSURE — A fascinating set of parallel polls conducted in the U.S. and Canada by Canada's largest polling firm shows how tough it will be to get some parts of the economy up and running, Ryan Heath writes. Only 1 in 20 Canadians and Americans say they would be comfortable traveling to their neighboring country over the 2020 Christmas season. Fully 54 percent of Canadians would hold off visiting the U.S. until there is a vaccine, no matter how long that takes. Sixty percent of Canadian respondents think the vaccine — when it's ready — should be mandatory, compared to 40 percent of Americans. The World Health Organization enjoys more trust in both countries than either Trump or Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. And overwhelming majorities support continued social restrictions unless new infections have declined significantly. Seven in 10 in both countries say they'll work from home more often after the pandemic is over.   TAKE A BREAK WHILE "WUERKing" FROM HOME: Back by popular demand, POLITICO's Pulitzer Prize-winning cartoonist Matt Wuerker will host an online lesson to introduce the basics of cartooning tomorrow at 12 p.m. EDT. Join Matt to learn the secrets behind drawing good cartoons and how to draw faces in different styles. Have your pens and paper ready for 20 minutes of inky fun followed by a Q&A with Matt. Your kids are encouraged to join the fun! REGISTER HERE TO PARTICIPATE.     Nightly Number $160 billion to $200 billion The amount state revenues will plunge by in fiscal 2021, which begins July 1 in most states, compared to fiscal 2019, Moody's Investors Service said in an analysis. (h/t tax editor Toby Eckert ) Parting Words A CHINESE BRIGHT SPOT, IN ITALY — The medieval city of Prato, near Florence, has the largest concentration of Chinese residents in Europe. Defying the fears of many, the city's Chinese community has been credited with helping to protect Prato from the outbreak. The city has just 479 cases of the coronavirus — fewer than anywhere else in Tuscany. Not a single member of the Chinese community in Prato has tested positive for the virus, according to officials, because of a scrupulous adherence to the rules and a fastidious attention to hygiene. "The Chinese community set a good example, creating a virtuous circle," said Matteo Biffoni, Prato's mayor. "The seriousness of the virus was understood in Prato, perhaps before anywhere else in Italy, and thanks to their example, we all got into line."   A message from PhRMA: In these unprecedented times, America's biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: beating COVID-19. The investments we've made have prepared us to act swiftly: · Working with governments and insurers to ensure that when new treatments and vaccines are approved, they will be available and affordable for patients · Coordinating with governments and diagnostic partners to increase COVID-19 testing capability and capacity · Protecting the integrity of the pharmaceutical supply chain and keeping our plants open to maintain a steady supply of medicines for patients Explore our efforts.   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam   Follow us  POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA