NO CRYSTAL BALL HERE — The state’s fiscal future was already unpredictable, thanks to the volatile revenue collections that had budget writers in February issuing grim warnings about the arrival of a fiscal “winter.”
A second Trump administration is adding another layer of clouds to the foggy picture for the next budget cycle.
That was the message state officials, budget writers and economists delivered as they met yesterday to talk preparations and predictions for Fiscal Year 26 ahead of the January deadline they face to agree on the tax revenue estimate that will serve as the foundation for next year’s budget.
"Predicting future revenue figures, as me and my counterpart have seen over the last couple years, can be a very, very difficult process in normal times," House Ways and Means Chair Aaron Michlewitz said during the hearing. "But given how volatile our revenue has been over the last couple years, this will be especially challenging … because the commonwealth not only faces the challenges at home, but we face unprecedented factors on a federal and global stage.”
Budget writers were already concerned about softening revenue hauls (not counting the money pulled in from the so-called millionaire’s tax, which can only be spent on transportation and education initiatives), which the Department of Revenue in now projecting will come in under benchmark in FY25, the department's commissioner, Geoffrey Snyder, said yesterday.
Add to that questions about whether Congress will extend the cap on deductions for state and local taxes (which Donald Trump promised to lift on the campaign trail), the potential for rising costs from tariffs, and uncertainty about the future of federal reimbursements for Medicaid and, well… “We don’t know what’s going to happen,” Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation President Doug Howgate said at the hearing.
“There's no need to kind of panic or take action for things that are unknown,” Howagate added. But he cautioned budget writers against planning for big spending growth next budget cycle, suggesting the state officials only increase spending by around 3 percent, as they did for FY25 after facing mid-year budget cuts in FY24.
A new federal administration isn’t the only question mark hanging in the air. Senate Ways and Means Chair Michael Rodrigues told reporters he’s concerned that revenue “seems to have plateaued,” though he’s not anticipating impending budget cuts this fiscal year.
“It's FY '26 that I'm most worried about right now,” he said.
GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS . Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for the Playbook? Drop me a line: kgarrity@politico.com.
TODAY — Gov. Maura Healey hosts a ceremonial signing for the climate and energy bill at 10:15 a.m. in Dorchester and attends the New England Energy Summit at 11:30 a.m. in Boston.
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DATELINE BEACON HILL
— “Mass. lawmakers have scrambled for months to tie up loose ends. Some of their knottiest bills are still in limbo,”by Matt Stout, The Boston Globe: “Massachusetts legislators say they’ve done ‘historic work’ this session. There is also a raft of it that’s still unfinished. With just weeks until a new legislative class arrives Jan. 1, Democratic leaders are grappling with how, or whether, they can reach deals on several high-profile bills before the year ends.”
— “Prisoners' advocates urge Healey to address a backlog in parole hearings,”by Jenifer B. McKim, GBH News: “Prisoners’ advocates are calling for Gov. Maura Healey to address a growing backlog of incarcerated people who were convicted of crimes as young adults and now are awaiting hearings in front of the Massachusetts Parole Board.”
— “State distributes $1B for paid leave,”by Christian M. Wade, The Eagle-Tribune: “The state Department of Family and Medical Leave said nearly 180,000 claims for Paid Family and Medical Leave benefits were filed during the fiscal year that ended June 30, amounting to more than $1 billion in payouts. That’s a more than 26% increase from the 2023 fiscal year, when nearly $833 million was paid out, according to the agency.”
PAYWALL
FROM THE HUB
— “Boston hosts inaugural equity, inclusion summit for city workers,”by Trajan Warren, GBH News: “The city of Boston hosted its inaugural summit focused on helping municipal workers center equity and inclusion in their daily work. Nearly 90 city employees gathered at the Boston Public Library for the one-day event hosted by the Equity and Inclusion Academy on Monday. Presentations and discussions aimed to help staff learn how to foster a sense of equity and inclusion as they serve the city’s diverse population.”
SENATE SHUTDOWN — Another day, another development in the now months-long battle between City Hall and Beacon Hill over a proposal Boston Mayor Michelle Wu is pushing to shift more of the property tax burden onto commercial real estate in the city — one she says will keep residential property owners from seeing a significant jump in their tax bills.
The House sent the bill to the Senate last week, after it was briefly held up by Republican Rep. David DeCoste, who voiced concerns about the impact the legislation might have on communities nearby Boston. Senate President Karen Spilka held off pushing for action on the bill until yesterday, seeming to indicate there was still opposition within her chamber.
Republican Rep. David DeCoste represents PLYMOUTH.
That opposition became clearer yesterday, when Sen. Nick Collins, who represents South Boston, tabled the bill, delaying passage until later in the week.
“It is frustrating to still be waiting for the City to provide critical information on its current financial status,” Collins said in a statement. “In meeting with the city and stakeholders in October, the City suggested certified valuations would be forthcoming, information which still has not been provided. We are still awaiting certified numbers from the Department of Revenue and expect pertinent information to emerge from tomorrow's City Council meeting.”
Collins’ frustrations were news to the Wu administration, according to a city spokesperson.
“Our administration has been working diligently to provide all possible information and answer any questions on this matter for many months. Today is the first time we are hearing about the Senator’s specific concerns, and we will continue trying to reach him to understand the information he is seeking,” the spokesperson said in a statement, adding that the city “reached out to each Senator multiple times to ask for their feedback and concerns.”
The Senate is expected to meet again Thursday, when they could finally close the book on the much-debated home rule petition.
REGISTER NOW : As the 118th Congress ends, major decisions loom, including healthcare appropriations. Key focus: site neutrality. Can aligning hospital and clinic costs cut federal spending, reflect physician costs, and lower patient expenses? Join policymakers and providers to discuss .
— “Hampden Sheriff’s Department employees file suit alleging unpaid wages,”by Stephanie Barry, The Springfield Republican: “Eight Hampden County Sheriff’s Department employees have filed a class action lawsuit over wages they claim were unpaid while they underwent annual physical fitness tests. A claim filed in Hampden Superior Court on Nov. 27 argues the workers were illegally shorted for two hours of wages while attending mandatory fitness evaluations.”
— “Panel files charges against Judge Shelley Joseph with SJC for ‘willfull judicial misconduct’,”by Tonya Alanez, The Boston Globe: “A judge who previously faced felony charges for allegedly helping an undocumented immigrant evade federal agents who showed up in Newton District Court to arrest him is again under fire for her alleged conduct in the 2018 case. Judge Shelley M. Richmond Joseph’s actions were unbecoming of a judicial officer and formal charges against her have been filed with the state Supreme Judicial Court, the state Judicial Conduct Commission said Monday.”
FROM THE DELEGATION
— “Warren urges Biden to limit Trump’s ability to use US military against Americans,”by Adam Reilly, GBH News: “In a letter released Monday, Warren and U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) urged [President Joe] Biden and [Defense Secretary Lloyd] Austin to issue a policy directive specifying that the federal Insurrection Act should only be used in narrow instances, e.g., when local and state authorities are overwhelmed and request assistance, or when attacks against the United States render local and state authorities incapable of effective response.”
MANY OF THE CAPITOL RIOTERS HAD PREVIOUS VIOLENT CRIMINAL HISTORIES, MANY ASSAULTED OFFICERS. SOME WERE CONVICTED OF SEDITIOUS CONSPIRACY.
SOME HAVE COMMITTED CRIMES SUBSEQUENT TO JAN 6. MANY WERE ARMED!
STEWART RHODES WAS A DOMESTIC ABUSER & HIS FAMILY FEARS HIS RELEASE.
What Happened to the Jan. 6 Rioters Arrested Since the Capitol Attack
Here’s a look at what happened to 20 of the most high-profile Jan. 6 rioters.
Stewart Rhodes: 18 years in prison
Stewart Rhodes, founder of Oath Keepers, was sentenced to 18 years in prison on seditious conspiracy charges.Aaron C. Davis–The Washington Post via Getty Images
The longest sentence given to anyone charged in the Jan. 6 riot to date went to far-right Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes, who was sentenced on May 25 to 18 years in prison after being convicted of seditious conspiracy for his role in helping orchestrate the pro-Trump attack on the Capitol.
Prosecutors said that Rhodes, 58, was the mastermind behind a plot to keep Trump in power after he lost the 2020 election, marshaling dozens of followers across the country to descend on Washington on Jan. 6. During an eight-week trial last fall, prosecutors revealed thousands of messages between Rhodes and other members of the Oath Keepers, an anti-government militia group, in advance of the Capitol attack, including one where Rhodes told his followers to prepare their “mind, body, spirit” for “civil war.” Rhodes and his followers converged on the Capitol after assembling an arsenal of weapons and setting up “quick reaction force” teams at a Virginia hotel that could deploy guns into the nation’s capital if needed to support their plot, according to court documents.
“Does the Pardon given by Joe to Hunter include the J-6 Hostages, who have now been imprisoned for years?” Trump wrote.
“Such an abuse and miscarriage of Justice,” he added.
Prosecution for January 6th related criminal allegations continue still, almost four years since the attack occurred. According to U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, “more than 1,561 individuals have been charged in nearly all 50 states for crimes related to the breach of the U.S. Capitol, including more than 590 individuals charged with assaulting or impeding law enforcement, a felony. The investigation remains ongoing.”
On Monday, U.S. District Judge Randolph D. Moss sentenced Jonathanpeter Allen Klein, 24, of Pendleton, Oregon, to nine months in prison and 36 months of supervised releases after he pleaded guilty to charges of civil disorder and “assaulting, resisting, or impeding certain officers” on January 6.
Trump has long promised to pardon those charged with crimes following January 6th, claiming that the events of the day were peaceful (he calls it a “day of love“) and that the convicted — even those who have pleaded guilty and expressed remorse for their actions — are the victims of political persecution.
— “Convicted Massachusetts ex-senator wants Trump to pardon him after Biden pardons son Hunter,”by Rick Sobey, Boston Herald: “Dean Tran, a Massachusetts Republican who ran for Congress, is calling for an ‘unconditional pardon’ a day after Biden signed a pardon for his son. Tran earlier this year was convicted of pandemic assistance fraud and making false statements on federal tax returns. He was convicted by a federal jury of 20 counts of wire fraud and three counts of filing false tax returns.”
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IT'S NOT EASY BEING GREEN
— “State expands solar net-metering program,”by Christin M. Wade, The Newburyport Daily News: “The state is expanding a popular solar net-metering program that allows consumers to pay lower rates for electricity for sharing power with the regional grid. The state Department of Public Utilities issued new rules that increase the project size threshold for participating in the net-metering program without being subject to the state’s cap to 25 kilowatts or less, up from 10 kilowatts.”
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Note: Yesterday's Playbook misstated Kim Duffy's title. She previously filed to run for Massachusetts governor.
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