Irony is Dead: Netanyahu cannot Attend Auschwitz Ceremony for Fear of Arrest on ICC Warrant for War Crimes Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – The Israeli newspaper Arab 48 reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be able to travel to Poland for the 80th annual commemoration of the liberation of the Auschwitz Nazi death camp because he fears being arrested on a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court at the […] |
Arab 48 reports that the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita, the organizer of the ceremony to be held on January 27, Deputy Foreign Minister Wladyslaw Bartoszewski, said, “We are bound to respect the decision of the International Criminal Court in the Hague.” Rzeczpospolita reported that the Israeli state never asked that Netanyahu participate in the ceremonies, since the Israelis know very well what Warsaw’s response would be if Netanyahu traveled there. Netanyahu has throughout his political career played politics with the Holocaust, so it is deeply ironic that he cannot attend the ceremony because he is charged with himself having committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. Genocide scholars have criticized the use of the Holocaust to justify Israeli atrocities in Gaza. The ICC issued the arrest warrant for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on November 21, 2024 on the charge of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza Strip, including a charge of deliberately starving the Palestinians there. The countries that have vowed to arrest the Israeli prime minister if he steps foot on their soil include Spain, Holland, Belgium, Ireland, Lithuania, Slovenia. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said, “We cannot implement a double standard.”
There is a background to the satisfaction Poland might take in arresting Netanyahu, whose father Benzion Mileikowsky was born in Warsaw. The family changed their name in Israel. The Poles maintain that the Holocaust was a Nazi German project implemented in part on Polish soil when Poland was occupied and helpless. The Polish parliament in 2018 even passed, and then backed off, a law making it illegal to accuse Poles of having been implicated in the commission of the genocide against the Jews. In 2019, Netanyahu was quoted as saying in the presence of several journalists, “The Poles collaborated with the Nazis, and I don’t know anyone who was ever sued for such a statement.” He made similar statements on social media, but they were quickly deleted. Tel Aviv at the time was planning an 8-nation conference in Israel of center-right governments, and the Poles were among the invitees. They boycotted, accusing Netanyahu of racism, which affected the prime minister’s prestige. He then maintained that it was all a misunderstanding and he never said any such thing but had been misquoted. The two countries clashed again in 2021 over a Polish law limiting any further property claims for damages during the Holocaust. The law was of a piece with the general denial of any Polish culpability in the Holocaust. Poland has been more sympathetic to Palestinian statehood aspirations than Israel’s right-wing government is comfortable with. On the other hand, Poland has not itself been vocal in denouncing Israeli actions in Gaza, which Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch categorize as a genocide. Two-thirds of Poles in polling say they don’t want to get involved in the Israel-Palestine dispute. About the AuthorIran’s Axis Crumbles as Hezbollah Falters and Assad Falls. Iran faces a sobering recalibration of its regional ambitions |
By Imran Khalid | – ( Foreign Policy in Focus ) – The dramatic sequence of events that began on October 7, 2023, with Hamas’s strike in Israel, has cascaded through the Middle East, toppling regimes and reshaping the region’s fault lines. On the very day Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire halting hostilities in Lebanon, the Syrian militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a bold offensive to capture Aleppo, marking the end of an era for Syria. Earlier this month, the reign of President Bashar al-Assad—a tenure synonymous with repression, conflict, and decay—crumbled under the weight of accumulated resistance. Syria, long shackled by a Ba’athist dictatorship and scarred by 14 years of brutal civil war, now glimpses a fragile freedom. Yet, the challenges ahead are formidable: sectarian tensions and entrenched divisions could derail the nation’s rebirth. Meanwhile, the upheaval in Syria has laid bare the vulnerability of Tehran’s once formidable “axis of resistance.” For Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the collapse of this network, painstakingly built to project Iranian influence, represents an existential political crisis. The fall of Assad’s regime signals not just a geopolitical shift but also a psychological blow to Iran’s ambitions. The Middle East, a region perpetually in flux, faces yet another transformation, fraught with uncertainty but also infused with the hope of a new beginning. Hezbollah’s gamble in opening a second front against Israel during the Gaza conflict may go down as one of its gravest miscalculations. The Shia Lebanese movement, heavily supported by Iran, was emboldened to assist Hamas, but misread both the regional dynamics and Israel’s military prowess. By striking along the UN-demarcated Blue Line, Hezbollah stirred a hornet’s nest, and the consequences proved catastrophic. After nearly a year of skirmishes that uprooted hundreds of thousands, Israel escalated its operations in September, delivering precision blows that decimated Hezbollah’s leadership. The group’s iconic leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was among those eliminated in a series of airstrikes that left Hezbollah’s command structure in tatters. On the ground, Israel’s forces drove Hezbollah militants away from the contested border zone, a tactical and symbolic victory for a nation accustomed to perpetual conflict. By November, Tehran’s calculus shifted. Acknowledging the unsustainable losses, Iran urged its Lebanese ally to seek peace rather than risk further erosion of its capabilities. Reluctantly, Hezbollah acquiesced, agreeing to a ceasefire that handed Israel the upper hand. This episode highlights the limitations of proxy warfare in a region where alliances are tenuous and military missteps can unravel years of carefully constructed influence. For Hezbollah, the toll of this misadventure extends beyond the battlefield, leaving its future—and Tehran’s credibility—irreparably shaken.
Iran’s reliance on Hezbollah as a cornerstone of its influence in Syria has long been a strategic necessity. In 2015, the Lebanese group, alongside Russian forces, proved pivotal in rescuing Bashar al-Assad’s regime from the brink of collapse. But the Middle East is a region defined by shifting alliances and resource exhaustion, and neither Iran nor Russia could muster the will—or the means—to defend Damascus. Tehran, after all, was drained by its proxy war with Israel, and Moscow was deeply entangled in Ukraine. Their absence created a vacuum, which the HTS and the Syrian National Army were quick to exploit. Seizing on Assad’s weakened position, these groups launched an offensive on Aleppo, ostensibly to preempt a regime operation targeting their strongholds in northwest Syria. What unfolded revealed the fragility of Assad’s government. Rife with corruption and demoralization, Syria’s army offered scant resistance. Aleppo fell with startling ease, underscoring just how diminished Assad’s authority had become. Iran and Russia may have propped up Assad in the past, but their inability to save Assad signals a profound weakening of the axis that once anchored Syria’s survival. Iran faces a sobering recalibration of its regional ambitions. Stripped of direct influence on Israel’s borders, it must rely on proxies in Iraq and its longstanding ties with the Houthi militia in Yemen to project power. Yet, a renewed focus on its nuclear ambitions could be fraught with peril, especially with Donald Trump’s imminent return to office. Trump’s previous strategy of extreme pressure left Tehran with little room to maneuver, and Supreme Leader Khamenei may tread cautiously this time. Meanwhile, tensions have flared on the Syrian-Israeli frontier. For the first time since 1974, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) entered the Syrian-controlled Golan Heights to repel an assault on a UN outpost near the Druze village of Khader. By Sunday, Israel had deployed additional troops to secure the buffer zone, aiming to contain Islamist rebel groups and prevent a flood of refugees. It is too early to envision a scenario where Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of HTS, brokers peace with Israel over the contested Golan Heights. Yet, as the Middle East repeatedly proves, the unimaginable has a way of becoming reality. About the AuthorClimate, Migration and Conflict mix to create ‘deadly’ intense Tropical Storms like Chido By Liz Stephens, University of Reading; Dan Green, University of Bristol, and Luis Artur, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane (The Conversation) – Cyclone Chido was an “intense tropical cyclone”, equivalent to a category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic. It made landfall in Mayotte, a small island lying to the north-west of Madagascar on December 14, generating wind […] |
(The Conversation) – Cyclone Chido was an “intense tropical cyclone”, equivalent to a category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic. It made landfall in Mayotte, a small island lying to the north-west of Madagascar on December 14, generating wind gusts approaching 155mph (250km/hr). Later on, it hit Mozambique, East Africa with the same ferocity.
This storm skirted north of Madagascar and affected the Comoros archipelago before making landfall in Mozambique. It is well within the range of what is expected for this part of the Indian Ocean. But this region has experienced an increase in the most intense tropical cyclones in recent years. This, alongside its occurrence so early in the season, can be linked to increases in ocean temperatures as a result of climate change.
News of the effects of tropical cyclone Chido in Mayotte, Mozambique and Malawi continues to emerge. Current estimates suggest 70% of Mayotte’s population have been affected, with over 50,000 homes in Mozambique partially or completely destroyed.
Ongoing conflict in Mozambique and undocumented migration to Mayotte will have played a key role in the number of deaths and the infrastructure damage.
Assessing how these cyclones characteristics are changing across southern Africa is part of the research we are involved in. Our team also studies how to build resilience to cyclones where conflict, displacement and migration magnify their effects.
(The Conversation) – Cyclone Chido was an “intense tropical cyclone”, equivalent to a category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic. It made landfall in Mayotte, a small island lying to the north-west of Madagascar on December 14, generating wind gusts approaching 155mph (250km/hr). Later on, it hit Mozambique, East Africa with the same ferocity.
This storm skirted north of Madagascar and affected the Comoros archipelago before making landfall in Mozambique. It is well within the range of what is expected for this part of the Indian Ocean. But this region has experienced an increase in the most intense tropical cyclones in recent years. This, alongside its occurrence so early in the season, can be linked to increases in ocean temperatures as a result of climate change.
News of the effects of tropical cyclone Chido in Mayotte, Mozambique and Malawi continues to emerge. Current estimates suggest 70% of Mayotte’s population have been affected, with over 50,000 homes in Mozambique partially or completely destroyed.
Ongoing conflict in Mozambique and undocumented migration to Mayotte will have played a key role in the number of deaths and the infrastructure damage.
Assessing how these cyclones characteristics are changing across southern Africa is part of the research we are involved in. Our team also studies how to build resilience to cyclones where conflict, displacement and migration magnify their effects.
A human-made disaster?
The risk that tropical cyclones pose to human life is exacerbated by socioeconomic issues. Migrants on Mayotte, many of whom made perilous journeys to escape conflict in countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, now make up more than half of the island’s population.
Precarious housing and the undocumented status of many residents reportedly made the disaster more deadly, as people feared evacuation would lead them to the police. On islands with poor infrastructure such as Mayotte, there is often simply nowhere safe to go. It takes many days for the power network and drinking water supply to be restored.
The situation is particularly complex in Mozambique. The ongoing conflict and terrorist violence, coupled with cyclones, including Kenneth in 2019, has caused repeated evacuations and worsening living conditions. Cabo Delgado and Nampula in the far north of Mozambique, the provinces most affected by both Chido and the conflict, rank among the poorest and most densely populated in the country due to limited education, scarce livelihood options and an influx of people displaced by violence.
“Chido Strikes Maputo,” Digital, Dream / Dreamland v3 / Clip2Comic / IbisPaint, 2024 based on photo by Mister Paps on Unsplash
As of June 2024, more than half a million people remained without permanent homes in the region, many living in displacement camps. That number is likely to rise significantly after Chido.
Compounding the crisis, Chido’s landfall so early in the cyclone season meant that the usual technical and financial preparations were not yet fully ramped up, with low stock levels delaying the timely delivery of aid. Unrest following elections in November hampered preparations further, cutting the flow of resources and personnel needed for anticipatory action and early response.
The risk that tropical cyclones pose to human life is exacerbated by socioeconomic issues. Migrants on Mayotte, many of whom made perilous journeys to escape conflict in countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, now make up more than half of the island’s population.
Precarious housing and the undocumented status of many residents reportedly made the disaster more deadly, as people feared evacuation would lead them to the police. On islands with poor infrastructure such as Mayotte, there is often simply nowhere safe to go. It takes many days for the power network and drinking water supply to be restored.
The situation is particularly complex in Mozambique. The ongoing conflict and terrorist violence, coupled with cyclones, including Kenneth in 2019, has caused repeated evacuations and worsening living conditions. Cabo Delgado and Nampula in the far north of Mozambique, the provinces most affected by both Chido and the conflict, rank among the poorest and most densely populated in the country due to limited education, scarce livelihood options and an influx of people displaced by violence.
“Chido Strikes Maputo,” Digital, Dream / Dreamland v3 / Clip2Comic / IbisPaint, 2024 based on photo by Mister Paps on Unsplash
As of June 2024, more than half a million people remained without permanent homes in the region, many living in displacement camps. That number is likely to rise significantly after Chido.
Compounding the crisis, Chido’s landfall so early in the cyclone season meant that the usual technical and financial preparations were not yet fully ramped up, with low stock levels delaying the timely delivery of aid. Unrest following elections in November hampered preparations further, cutting the flow of resources and personnel needed for anticipatory action and early response.
Tropical cyclones in a warmer world
Warmer sea surface temperatures not only provide more fuel for stronger storms, but may also expand the regions at risk of tropical cyclones.
The Indian Ocean is warming faster than the global average, and is experiencing a staggering increase in the proportion of storms reaching the intensity of Chido.
Climate simulations predict that storms will continue getting stronger as we further warm our world, and could even lead to an unprecedented landfall as far south as the Mozambican capital, Maputo.
Scientists carry out attribution studies to determine how climate change contributed to specific events. Scientists undertaking rapid attribution studies of Chido have found that the ocean surface temperatures along the path of the storm were 1.1°C warmer than they would have been without climate change. So, temperatures this warm were made more than 50 times more likely by climate change. Another study focusing on Chido itself concluded that the cyclone’s winds were 5% faster due to global heating caused by burning fossil fuels, enough to bump it from a category 3 to a category 4 storm.
Intense winds are not the only hazard. Scientists are confident that tropical cyclones will dump more rain as a result of climate change. A trend towards slower-moving storms has been observed, causing more of that rain to accumulate in a single location, resulting in floods.
Cyclone Freddy delivered a year’s worth of rain to southern Malawi in just four days in March 2023. Storm surges, exacerbated by sea level rise, also raise the scale of flooding, as in the devastating Cyclone Idai in March 2019. An increase in the number of storms that rapidly intensify, as Chido did before landfall in Mayotte has also been linked to climate change, which makes it harder to provide early warnings.
To improve resilience to future cyclones, conflict, migration and social dynamics must be considered alongside climate change, without this, displaced and migrant communities will continue to be the most affected by the risks that climate change poses.
Liz Stephens, Professor of Climate Risks and Resilience, University of Reading; Dan Green, PhD Candidate in African Climate Science, University of Bristol, and Luis Artur, Lecturer and Researcher of Disaster Risk Reduction, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Warmer sea surface temperatures not only provide more fuel for stronger storms, but may also expand the regions at risk of tropical cyclones.
The Indian Ocean is warming faster than the global average, and is experiencing a staggering increase in the proportion of storms reaching the intensity of Chido.
Climate simulations predict that storms will continue getting stronger as we further warm our world, and could even lead to an unprecedented landfall as far south as the Mozambican capital, Maputo.
Scientists carry out attribution studies to determine how climate change contributed to specific events. Scientists undertaking rapid attribution studies of Chido have found that the ocean surface temperatures along the path of the storm were 1.1°C warmer than they would have been without climate change. So, temperatures this warm were made more than 50 times more likely by climate change. Another study focusing on Chido itself concluded that the cyclone’s winds were 5% faster due to global heating caused by burning fossil fuels, enough to bump it from a category 3 to a category 4 storm.
Intense winds are not the only hazard. Scientists are confident that tropical cyclones will dump more rain as a result of climate change. A trend towards slower-moving storms has been observed, causing more of that rain to accumulate in a single location, resulting in floods.
Cyclone Freddy delivered a year’s worth of rain to southern Malawi in just four days in March 2023. Storm surges, exacerbated by sea level rise, also raise the scale of flooding, as in the devastating Cyclone Idai in March 2019. An increase in the number of storms that rapidly intensify, as Chido did before landfall in Mayotte has also been linked to climate change, which makes it harder to provide early warnings.
To improve resilience to future cyclones, conflict, migration and social dynamics must be considered alongside climate change, without this, displaced and migrant communities will continue to be the most affected by the risks that climate change poses.
Liz Stephens, Professor of Climate Risks and Resilience, University of Reading; Dan Green, PhD Candidate in African Climate Science, University of Bristol, and Luis Artur, Lecturer and Researcher of Disaster Risk Reduction, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.