Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Seeing red

Wednesday, November 6, 2024

POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Seeing red

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BREAKING THIS MORNING — Former President Donald Trump is on track to return to the White House.

From my POLITICO colleagues: “Donald Trump has won the presidency, lurching America’s center of power to the right after defeating Kamala Harris in a tumultuous race that set the nation on edge — and that ultimately will make the 45th president the 47th, too,” Natalie Allison and Myah Ward write. “His return to power was fueled by widespread dissatisfaction with Washington and the state of the country, including with the rising cost of living, and by a campaign that demonized migrants and the U.S. justice system while rallying the working class and men.”

Trump’s impending return to the White House is essentially the end to the former president’s legal woes, per Kyle Chenney, and Josh Gerstein has a look at who Trump could try to exact revenge on once he takes power back.

Republicans also won a majority in the Senate last night, but who will take control of the House is still TBD. Get the latest results here.

Now, back to the Bay State.

2026, HERE THEY COME — If you’re Amy Carnevale, you’re feeling pretty good this morning.

Early unofficial results showed Republicans making modest gains in the state Legislature last night, and while it won’t make much of a dent in Democrats’ supermajorities in the House and Senate, it’s a win for the party’s new leadership that’s been desperate to prove it can run winning campaigns as they eye the governor’s office in 2026.

Republican Taunton City Councilor Kelly Dooner declared victory in the race for the state Senate seat Democrat Marc Pacheco is vacating at the end of his term, per the Boston Herald. GOP challenger Justin Thurber defeated state Rep. Patricia Haddad, who previously served as speaker pro tempore, and Republican Ken Sweezey won the contest for the seat previously held by Josh Cutler, a Democrat who left the House to join Gov. Maura Healey’s administration.

Democrats did hold two competitive Senate seats — and won a previously Republican open seat. State Sen. John Cronin won reelection over GOP challenger Nick Pirro, and in the hotly-contested Plymouth and Barnstable state Senate race, where Democratic state Rep. Dylan Fernandes defeated GOP state Rep. Mathew Muratore. Meanwhile, Plymouth School Committee Chair Michelle Badger, a Democrat, declared victory in the race to replace Muratore.

What does that all mean for the balance of power on Beacon Hill?

Nothing. Democrats will control both legislative chambers and every statewide office. And Republicans lost every congressional seat they ran in and the U.S. Senate race.

But it could make donors and supporters who were ready to write the state GOP off give the party another look as the MassGOP looks to win back the governor’s office next cycle.

“Obviously we're looking at the corner office,” Carnevale, the MassGOP chair, told Playbook last night before polls closed. “And we're looking to be competitive in more congressional races as well in 2026. I think you'll see a lot more candidates coming out on the Republican side.”

There’s still a Donald Trump-sized caveat. The former president’s win this morning is bound to complicate things for Republicans here, where voters rejected him 62 percent to 36 percent, per unofficial tallies.

Trump’s presidency was a headache for former Gov. Charlie Baker when he ran for reelection in 2018, and yoking local Republicans to Trump has proved a successful strategy for Democrats in past elections. And with Trump in office, it may be harder for Carnevale and co. to rein in the more extreme wing of the party.

GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. In a loss for Democrats on both sides of the border, former GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte defeated former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, a Democrat, in the race to replace outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu in New Hampshire.

Ayotte’s win is a blow to Gov. Maura Healey, who spent serious time on the campaign trail stumping for Craig in her native New Hampshire (including much of her time on Election Day). And it’s a knock to Democrats who had viewed New Hampshire as their best chance to flip a governor's seat — and to the party's battle-tested abortion-rights playbook.

Wanted more results and analysis? We got you covered here.

TODAY — Boston Mayor Michelle Wu speaks at a ribbon cutting ceremony for the James J. Chittick Elementary schoolyard at 10 a.m. in Hyde Park.

Tips? Scoops? Birthdays? Election reactions? Email me: kgarrity@politico.com

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THE DOWN-BALLOT RACES

— “Democrat Cronin, Republican Fattman claim victory in reelection battles,” by Marco Cartolano, Telegram & Gazette.

— “Lovely named winner in State Senate race,” by Michael McHugh, The Salem News.

— “Incumbent state Rep. Kelly Pease wins third term,” by Namu Sampath, The Springfield Republican.

— “Moakley wins Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket House seat; says state can lead nation,” by Heather McCarron, Cape Cod Times.

— "Xiarhos vs. Fletcher: Voters decide on 5th Barnstable District House seat,” by Denise Coffey, Cape Cod Times: “State Rep. Steven Xiarhos, R-Barnstable, has won the race in Tuesday's election against Owen Fletcher, a Democrat from Barnstable, to represent the approximately 40,000 people in the Fifth Barnstable District.”

— “Feeney wins re-election; Rausch-Videira race undecided at presstime,” by Stephen Peterson, The Sun Chronicle.

— “Lombardo wins reelection in 22nd Middlesex District race,” by Peter Currier, The Lowell Sun.

— “'Very large shoes to fill': Plouffe takes commanding lead for Brockton State House seat,” by Chris Helms, The Brockton Enterprise.

TOO CLOSE TO CALL — “No call in Kassner, Tashjian race Tuesday night,” by Caroline Enos, The Salem News.

FURTHER DOWN THE BALLOT — “Governor's Council race too close to call Tuesday night,” by Caroline Enos, The Salem News.

— “Driscoll in line to win reelection as clerk of courts,” by Paul Leighton, The Salem News.

— “Southern Essex Register of Deeds race too early call,” by Ethan Forman, Gloucester Daily Times.

FROM THE DELEGATION

BAY STATE BLUES — In the House, Reps. Jake Auchincloss, Ayanna Pressley, Stephen Lynch, Bill Keating, Richard Neal, Jim McGovern, Lori Trahan, Seth Moulton and Minority Whip Katherine Clark sailed to reelection (only a few faced challenges). Whether they’ll be party of a new Democratic majority is still up in the air, but as of this morning Republicans had a lead in the House.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren also notched a win over GOP challenger John Deaton, earning her third six-year term in the Senate. While Warren was celebrating her victory down the road, Deaton, an attorney and cryptocurrency advocate who moved to Massachusetts to challenge Warren, said he plans to stick around and stay involved in GOP politics in Massachusetts.

“The question that everybody keeps asking is, John, are you going to fade away?” Deaton told supporters during his concession speech at a bar in Boston’s Theater District.

Massachusetts is a clinical study in why a CARPETBAGGER with no ties to the Commonwealth & a PROVEN LIAR was defeated...even with CRYPTO $$$ promoting his LIES. Maybe he'll work to INFORM himself with FACTS! NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME! John Deaton LIED about the Cape Cod Bridges, LIIED about STEWARD & much else....

“Massachusetts is a clinical study in what’s wrong with one-party rule… and I'm going to do whatever I can to prevent that from continuing,” he said.

The view from Warren’s watch party… Watch Deaton’s concession speech.

MORE — “Neal beats independent challenger by 2 to 1 margin for House seat,” by Jeanette DeForge, The Springfield Republican.

BALLOT BATTLES

NO QUESTION — Voters readily handed State Auditor Diana DiZoglio the power to audit the Legislature (Question 1), and approved a ballot question that would end MCAS as a high school graduation requirement (Question 2).

And they rejected proposals that would’ve legalized psychedelics (Question 4) and raised the wage for tipped workers to match the state’s minimum – while allowing tip pooling (Question 5). As of early this morning, the debate over whether to allow app-based drivers to unionize (Question 3) was too close to call.

But voter approval is only the first step in what’s likely to just be a new phase in the protracted battle between DiZoglio and the Legislature over her efforts to crack open their books. CommonWealth Beacon has more on what’s next.

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MEANWHILE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

— “Ayotte wins New Hampshire governor’s race,” by Lisa Kashinsky, POLITICO: “Republican former Sen. Kelly Ayotte has won the New Hampshire governor’s race, The Associated Press projects, defeating former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig for the open seat. Ayotte’s victory is a significant blow to Democrats who had viewed New Hampshire as their best chance of flipping a gubernatorial seat this year.”

— “Pappas, Goodlander both win, as NH Democrats maintain hold on congressional seats,” by Todd Bookman, Dan Tuohy and Mara Hoplamazian, New Hampshire Public Radio: “Democrats swept the races for New Hampshire’s two congressional seats Tuesday, with one victor a political newcomer and the other an experienced campaigner with a long record of elected office in the state. In the 1st Congressional District, Democrat Chris Pappas won a fourth straight term in Congress, defeating Republican Russell Prescott. And in New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District, Maggie Goodlander — in her first run for elected office — defeated Republican Lily Tang Williams. Goodlander succeeds six-term Congresswoman Annie Kuster, who did not seek re-election this year.”

MEANWHILE IN RHODE ISLAND

— “Rhode Island voters will reject constitutional convention, back four bonds worth $343.5 million, in unofficial results,” by Dan McGowan and Alexa Gagosz, The Boston Globe: “Rhode Island voters rejected the once-every-10-year opportunity to reopen — and potentially alter — the state’s constitution, blocking the chance to hold the first constitutional convention since 1986, in unofficial results. Voters did support the statewide bond questions worth $343.5 million that were targeted for higher education facilities, housing, the environment, and the arts, all of which were widely expected to be approved.”

MEANWHILE IN MAINE

— “Winner of pivotal 2nd Congressional District race in Maine still being determined,” by Patrick Whittle and David Sharp, NECN: “Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, a moderate known for defying party orthodoxy, was defending his seat in Congress against Austin Theriault, a stock car driver and Republican state lawmaker, but the race was too early to call Wednesday morning. The matchup between Golden and Theriault is one of a handful of pivotal races with a chance to influence control of the U.S. House of Representatives during a competitive election year. It played out in the largest congressional district by area on the East Coast, a largely rural part of Maine where former President Donald Trump has proven very popular with voters.”

DATELINE BEACON HILL

IN OTHER NEWS — “Tax Collections Still Lagging Expectations Through October,” by Chris Lisinski, State House News Service (paywall): “State tax collections landed in a familiar spot in October, rising compared to the same period last year but still falling short of the projected haul, officials announced Tuesday. The Department of Revenue collected $2.685 billion last month, which was $124 million or 4.9 percent more than in October 2023 and $86 million or 3.1 percent below the monthly benchmark amount. Through the first four months of fiscal 2025, cumulative tax collections are running $129 million or 1 percent below year-to-date benchmarks and $667 million or 5.6 percent above actual collections during the same period in fiscal 2024.”

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HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH

TRANSITIONS — Kristen Halbert has joined Future Chefs as the company’s Director of Community Engagement.

SPOTTED — at the traditional Election Day lunch at Santarpio’s in Eastie hosted by state Sen. Lydia Edwards : Rep. Ayanna Pressley, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll, Boston City Councilor Gigi Coletta, Suffolk DA Kevin Hayden, Senate President Karen Spilka, state Reps. Aaron Michlewitz, Adrian Madaro and Chris Worrell and former Boston City Councilor Sal LaMattina, Revere Mayor Patrick Keefe and former House Speaker Sal DiMasi.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to Matt Kraunelis and Angelica Peebles.

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