POLITICO Nightly: Betting on Kamala Harris

BY CALDER MCHUGH Vice President Kamala Harris takes the stage to speak at a post debate campaign rally on Friday in Las Vegas. | Ronda Churchill/AP INSIDE TRACK — With President Joe Biden under increasing pressure from his own party to drop out of the race for president, Vice President Kamala Harris’ fortunes are the subject of increasing speculation. Nowhere is it clearer than in the betting markets, where the two largest online political betting sites — Polymarket and PredictIt — have spent the day vacillating back and forth between Biden and Harris as the most likely potential Democratic nominee in November. At the time of publication, Polymarket gave Biden a 43 percent chance of being the Democratic nominee for president and Harris a 42 percent chance. Over at PredictIt, which functions largely like a stock market, both of their stocks were trading at 43 cents on the dollar . The betting markets get things wrong like everyone else, but Harris’ surge (she was at well under 10 cents before the debate, and was still trending generally at around 15 cents until Tuesday) reveals two things. A marketplace of people with their own cash in the game is increasingly less convinced that Biden will be the nominee. And those same people broadly believe that the only realistic other option is Harris — no other Democratic prospect is close. The odds began to move in earnest on Tuesday, after a trickle of lawmakers and prominent Democrats began to go public with their reservations about Biden — most notably Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), who directly called for Biden to step aside. Today, Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) followed Doggett’s lead with a public call for a new nominee. Other top Democrats, without publicly criticizing Biden, have increasingly made comments alluding to the prospect that Biden might not be the Democratic nominee , or opening the door to scenarios in which Biden steps aside . Adding to Biden’s troubles, polling from The New York Times/Siena College today showed Trump widening his lead post-debate, beating Biden by six points among likely voters and by eight points among registered voters. A new Wall Street Journal poll also has Biden losing by six points, with a whopping 80 percent of voters agreeing that he’s too old to run for a second term. Those numbers won’t calm the nerves of any Democrats, whether donors, party officials or officeholders. So far, Harris has played the good soldier — she loyally defended Biden on debate night and has since mentioned that the Biden who showed up on debate night was not the Biden she knows. “I see Joe Biden when the cameras are on and the cameras are off, in the Oval Office negotiating bipartisan deals,” she said at a rally in Las Vegas on Friday. Her chief of staff Lorraine Voles reportedly told Harris’ staff on Monday that there would be no tolerance for engaging in parlor games in which Biden isn’t the nominee. Harris joined Biden today on an all staff campaign call today, in which he was reportedly “unequivocal” about staying in the race. “So, let me say this as clearly and simply as I can: I'm running,” he said. Later in the day, in a fundraising email, Biden reiterated that “No one is pushing me out. I’m not leaving, I’m in this race to the end, and WE are going to win this election. If that’s all you need to hear, pitch in a few bucks to help Kamala and me defeat Donald Trump in November.” Still, at least some of Harris’ staff have been frustrated by their belief that the vice president’s name hasn’t been front and center in discussions of a possible Biden replacement. “They still don’t get that the message you’re saying to people, to this Democratic Party [when you pass over Harris], is, we prefer a white person,” one veteran Democrat and Harris ally told POLITICO over the weekend. One persistent problem, however, is that Harris’ approval ratings have largely been in line with or worse than Biden’s throughout her time in office. She has a base of support within the party, and she’s sharpened her message as the administration’s chief post-Dobbs defender of abortion rights, but many in the party still have serious reservations about whether she can win. Her 2020 primary campaign came apart at the seams, after all, and she dropped out before any votes had been cast. But Democrats harboring doubts about Harris or seeking to deny her the Democratic nomination got a dose of political reality Tuesday from Rep. Jim Clyburn, who made clear that the vice president must be reckoned with. “I will support [Harris] if [Biden] were to step aside,” said the influential South Carolina Democrat, who is credited with saving Biden’s 2020 campaign. The question of Harris’ fate is at the heart of any and all discussions about replacing Biden. Picking another contender would require stepping over her, which could fracture the party by alienating one of the party’s most important and loyal constituencies: Black women. While Biden’s delegates do not automatically attach to her, since her name is already on the ticket Harris could use the $91 million in the campaign coffers for her own election effort. The betting markets believe that, for all those reasons, her ascent to the nomination is the likeliest option should Biden drop out. In any case, the behind-the-scenes battle to determine who will be the next Democratic nominee is already underway. A private polling memo obtained by Puck shows that Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg are polling better than Harris in every battleground state. And tonight, the process moves a step closer toward the end game when Democratic governors from around the country will descend on Washington for a crucial closed-door meeting which will include many potential presidential hopefuls: Whitmer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzer and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, among others. Harris will also be present . Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh . Programming note: Nightly will be off on Thursday and Friday for the Fourth of July. We’ll be back in your inboxes on Monday, July 8.   Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more.     WHAT'D I MISS? — Biden: ‘No one’s pushing me out’: President Joe Biden unexpectedly joined a Zoom call with campaign and Democratic National Committee staff today, mounting a new push to preserve the viability of his embattled candidacy. Amid reports that Biden is privately acknowledging to allies that his candidacy is hanging in the balance, the president stated that he’s in the race for the long haul, though he conceded that the days since last week’s debate with former President Donald Trump have been damaging. — Zelenskyy to huddle with Hill leaders during NATO summit: Top congressional leaders plan to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy next Wednesday during the NATO Summit in Washington, where allies will discuss the besieged nation’s path into the alliance. On the Senate side, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will lead a bipartisan group of senators meeting with Zelenskyy. From the lower chamber, House Speaker Mike Johnson, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Foreign Affairs Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) will meet with the Ukrainian leader. — Senate to kick off fiscal 2025 markups next week: The Senate will begin marking up annual spending bills next week , starting with three fiscal 2025 measures and overall funding totals for a dozen appropriations bills. Bypassing subcommittee markups, the full Senate Appropriations Committee will take up its Legislative Branch, Military Construction-VA and Agriculture-FDA spending bills on July 11, in addition to a dozen subcommittee allocations known as the 302(b)s. Like last year, Senate Democrats and Republicans have not reached an agreement on overall funding levels for 12 appropriations bills, and the numbers will likely pass the committee along party lines. The spending bills that flow from those totals, however, are expected to pass the committee with bipartisan support. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 TIME TO GO — The Boston Globe urged President Joe Biden to bow out of the presidential race today , citing a lack of sufficient explanation for Biden’s “historically bad” debate performance last week. The Globe is the latest in a flurry of news outlets — including the New York Times — to use its editorial pages to urge Biden to step aside, reports POLITICO. SALVAGE JOB — President Biden has told a key ally that he knows he may not be able to salvage his candidacy if he cannot convince the public in the coming days that he is up for the job after a disastrous debate performance last week, reports the New York Times. The president, who this ally emphasized is still deeply in the fight for re-election, understands that his next few appearances heading into the holiday weekend must go well, particularly an interview scheduled for Friday with George Stephanopoulos of ABC News and campaign stops in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. PANIC TIME — House Democrats are growing increasingly panicked about the 2024 election in the aftermath of Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance — and furious at the president’s response, writes POLITICO. Two safe-seat members have already publicly urged Biden out. Two of the most endangered Democrats told local news outlets they’ve already written off Biden’s chances to win in November. UKBehind the scenes, things are even more frenzied. There are multiple drafts of letters circulating among House Democrats and at least one would call on Biden to end his campaign, according to five people familiar with the efforts. Even for Congress, where rumors constantly fly around the Capitol, this week has been remarkably chaotic, exacerbated by the fact that members are not in session and have been scrambling to connect with each other remotely. BIDEN’S CALL LIST — President Biden called senior Hill Democrats days after his terrible debate performance last week, marking his most direct effort to reassure the highest levels of his party of his reelection campaign’s continued viability , writes POLITICO. The lawmakers included House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who Biden called Tuesday, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who Biden called this morning. CLYBURN SPEAKS — Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn, a top ally of Joe Biden, said today that if the president steps aside from the election, he would expect to see a “mini-primary” ahead of the Democratic National Convention with Kamala Harris and Democratic governors vying for the top two spots on the party’s ticket , reports POLITICO. Responding to a question on CNN about whether Harris should be the party’s automatic nominee if the president were to step aside or if there should be a “mini-primary” between several candidates, Clyburn (D-S.C.) said: “Well, I think we’re going to have a mini-primary leading into the convention,” describing the virtual roll call needed to appear on the Ohio ballot. AROUND THE WORLD British Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer campaigns at the Port of Southampton on June 17. | Carl Court/Getty Images UK POLLS PREDICT LABOUR ROMP — The final United Kingdom election polls make grim reading for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives. YouGov’s MRP poll (more on that below) predicts Keir Starmer’s Labour will win 431 seats, up 229 from 2019, with the Tories on 102, down 263 seats from the last election. These numbers would give Labour a majority of 212, the largest the party has ever enjoyed. Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats were on 72 seats, up 61. Nigel Farage’s insurgent right-wing Reform UK, meanwhile, was predicted to win three seats. A massive Labour landslide would be a transformative result for British politics, sending the Tories packing after 14 years of rule and five prime ministers, during which Brexit and ongoing rows over immigration have divided the country. POLITICS ON THE PITCH — Germany’s interior minister condemned a Turkish football player who displayed an alleged far-right salute today — triggering a row between Berlin and Ankara. During Turkey’s Euro 2024 match with Austria in Leipzig on Tuesday, 26-year-old defender Merih Demiral celebrated a goal with a controversial salute, in which one or both hands are made to mimic the shape of a wolf’s head, a symbol of Turkey’s far-right and ultra-nationalist Grey Wolves organization. It was banned in Austria in 2019. UEFA, football’s governing body in Europe, subsequently announced it was investigating Demiral for “alleged inappropriate behaviour.”   SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW .     NIGHTLY NUMBER 74 The percentage of voters who view President Joe Biden as too old for the job, up five percentage points since the June 27 presidential debate, according to a poll released today from The New York Times and Siena College . RADAR SWEEP THE ARTIFACT QUESTION — Post-Covid, museum attendance is skyrocketing. In many ways, in terms of the number of available museums around the world and the number of visitors attending them, museums have never been more popular than they are right now. But many of them are also increasingly embroiled in political questions — chief among them, how many of their artifacts rightfully belong there? With permanent collections and works on loan, museums have benefited from the practice of largely European colonizers stealing art from countries they colonized. Now, there are increasing efforts to get the art back — how will museums respond? For The New Republic, Richard J. Evans reviews Adam Kuper’s book on the topic. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1988: Iran Air Flight 655 crashes into the Persian Gulf, brought down by the USS Vincennes. Pictured, mourners carry coffins through the streets of Tehran four days later during a mass funeral. | AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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