Thursday, May 23, 2024

Informed Comment daily updates (05/23/2024)

 


Recognizing Palestine: “In Darkest Episode of 21st Century … Spaniards were on the Right Side of History.”

Recognizing Palestine: “In Darkest Episode of 21st Century … Spaniards were on the Right Side of History.”

Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – The announcement Wednesday that Spain, Ireland and Norway will recognize the State of Palestine diplomatically on May 28 is not unprecedented in Europe or in the world. In Europe, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Iceland have all done so. Indeed, most countries recognize Palestine. The outliers were the […]


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Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – The announcement Wednesday that Spain, Ireland and Norway will recognize the State of Palestine diplomatically on May 28 is not unprecedented in Europe or in the world. In Europe, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Iceland have all done so. Indeed, most countries recognize Palestine. The outliers were the U.S., Australia and most countries of Western Europe. Now the Western European consensus against this step is crumbling, as well. Belgium came close to joining the other three and it could yet do so.

As for France, its foreign minister, Stéphane Séjourné, said Wednesday that recognizing Palestine was “not taboo.” He said that France would prefer to take that step, however, when it would have a practical effect. He said, “”it is not just a symbolic issue or the challenge of taking a political position, but a diplomatic tool in the service of a solution yielding two states living side by side, in peace and security”.

President Emmanuel Macron is not as free to act decisively as Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. He leads a centrist government that has increasingly sought support from the right and big capital, though he once served in a Socialist cabinet. His backing for the International Criminal Court’s request for warrants against two top Israeli leaders has caused a backlash among his right wing colleagues.

Spain’s Sanchez, in contrast, is the Secretary-General of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party and the head of a left wing coalition in parliament. He is facing vehement demands from those further to his left that he unrecognize Israel the way Colombia has over the brutal Gaza campaign, and that he stop selling Israel arms.

Sanchez explained his reasoning in a speech, insisting that the step was not “anti-Israel.”

“We must say to the Palestinians that we are with them, that there is hope,” he said. He continued the affirmation that “the land and identity of Palestine will continue to exist in our hearts, in international legality and in the future of a harmonious Mediterranean.” In the past, Sanchez has defined the Palestinian state as the territory of “Gaza, the West Bank, with East Jerusalem as its capital.”

He said that Spain’s foreign policy has to be coherent. Madrid voted in the UN General Assembly for Palestinian admission as a member state in the United Nations. “If Spain voted in favor of recognizing Palestine as a state with full rights in the UNO,” he said, “we must also recognize it bilaterally.”

Spain to recognise Palestinian state, PM says • FRANCE 24 English Video

Sanchez has been scathing on Netanyahu’s Gaza campaign. He complained Wednesday, “He doesn’t have a peace project for Palestine.” He said it was legitimate to fight Hamas after what it did on Oct. 7. But, he cautioned, “Netanyahu generates so much rancor that the two-state solution is in danger of being made unviable.” The present offensive, he said, “will only increase hatred by worsening security prospects for Israel and the entire region.”

In a subtle slam at the United States, the Spanish PM observed, “The countries that believe in a rules-based international order are obliged to act in Ukraine and Palestine, without double standards, and to do everything in our power — providing humanitarian aid, assisting the displaced, and using every political avenue to say that we will not allow the two-state solution to be forcibly destroyed.”

Sanchez made an excellent point when he went on to point out that a two state solution that guarantees security to both sides requires that the two parties feel themselves able to negotiate with legitimacy and must have the same status as states. He said that recognizing the State of Palestine was a way of enabling it to confront Hamas, an organization, he insisted, that must disappear so that the Palestine Authority can rule Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem as its capital.

I have long argued that the reason for which treaties like the 1993 Oslo Accords have been so easily trashed by the Israelis is that the Palestinians are stateless and so Israel, a state, does not have to treat them as a legitimate government. It can easily renege on any agreement with them, since they have no legitimate status. Only be recognizing them as a state can third parties actually push Israel and the Palestinians to a settlement. Sanchez sees this.

He accused right wing Spanish leader José Maria Aznar of not being able to see the Palestinians and their suffering, even though he was able to see what no one else was — the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq in 2003.

Sanchez’s comments on the issue are informed, ethical and insightful. No one on the US political scene speaks halfway so coherently on this matter.

The prime minister also said the step was intended to push for a cease fire in Gaza. “In a while when shelling ceases and the dust of the tanks and the destruction of buildings dissipates, we will realize that we have witnessed one of the darkest episodes of the 21st century, and I want the Spaniards to be able to say with their heads high that they were on the right side of history.”

They were. Americans were not.



With Biden’s Bear Hug of Israeli Atrocities, World’s View of American Democracy Craters

With Biden’s Bear Hug of Israeli Atrocities, World’s View of American Democracy Craters

( Middle East Monitor ) – The Democracy Perception Index (DPI) issued its 2024 report on 8 May, revealing important and interesting shifts in global perceptions about democracy, geopolitics and international relations. The conclusions in the report were based on the views of over 62,000 respondents from 53 countries, representing roughly 75 per cent of […]


( Middle East Monitor ) – The Democracy Perception Index (DPI) issued its 2024 report on 8 May, revealing important and interesting shifts in global perceptions about democracy, geopolitics and international relations. The conclusions in the report were based on the views of over 62,000 respondents from 53 countries, representing roughly 75 per cent of the world’s total population.

The survey was conducted between 20 February and 15 April this year, when the world was largely transfixed by the Israeli war against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

It is important to note that the DPI, although informative, is itself conceived in a biased context as it is the product of a global survey conducted by western-based companies and organisations.

The DPI results were published ahead of a scheduled 2024 Copenhagen Democracy Summit, whose speakers will include Hillary Clinton, US Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell and President of the European Council Charles Michel. The first speaker listed on the conference website is Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Founder and Chairman of the Alliance of Democracies Foundation, which commissioned the DPI.

All of this is reflected in the kind of questions which are being asked in the survey, placing greater emphasis on whether, for example, ties should be cut with Russia over Ukraine, and China over a war that is yet to take place in Taiwan. Such major shortcomings notwithstanding, the outcome of the research remains interesting and worthy of reflection.

There are some major takeaways from the report. For a start, there is growing dissatisfaction with the state of democracy, and such discontent is not limited to people living in countries perceived as non-democratic; it also includes people in the US and Europe.

What’s more, democracy, in the collective awareness of ordinary people, is not a political term often infused as part of official propaganda. When seen from the viewpoint of the people, democracy is a practical notion, whose absence leads to dire implications. For example, 68 per cent of people worldwide believe that economic inequality at home is the greatest threat to democracy.

On the question of “threats to democracy”, there is growing mistrust of Global Corporations (60 per cent), Big Tech (49 per cent) and their resulting Economic Inequality (68 per cent), and Corruption (67 per cent). This leads to the unmistakable conclusion that western globalisation has failed to create the proper environment for social equality, empower civil society or build democratic institutions. The opposite, based on people’s own perceptions, seems to be true.


“Globe.” Digital, Dream / Dreamland v. 3.

Then we have global priorities which, as seen by many nations around the world, remain committed to ending wars, poverty, hunger, combating climate change, etc. However, this year’s top priority among European countries, 44 per cent, is also centred on reducing immigration, a significant number compared with the 24 per cent who prioritise fighting climate change.

Although the world appears to be divided about cutting ties with Russia and China, the selection of the question again reeks with bias.

The respondents in western countries, who are subjected to relentless media propaganda, prefer cutting such ties, while most people in the rest of the world prefer keeping them. Consequently, due to China’s positive perception in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, the DPI gave Beijing a “net positive”. Russia, on the other hand, is on the “path of image rehabilitation in most countries surveyed with the exception of Europe,” reported Politico.

The greatest decline was suffered by the United States, largely due to Washington’s support for Israel in its ongoing war in the Gaza Strip. “Over the past four years… perceptions of the US’s global influence became more positive – peaking in 2022 or 2023 – and then declined sharply in 2024,” the report concluded.

The large drop took place in the Muslim countries that were surveyed: Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkiye, Morocco, Egypt and Algeria. Some western European countries are also becoming more critical of the US, including Switzerland, Ireland and Germany.

Most people (55 per cent compared with 29 per cent) believe that social media has a positive effect on democracy. Despite growing social media censorship, many in the Global South still find margins in these platforms which allow them to escape official or corporate media censorship. Growing criticism of social media companies, however, is taking place in western countries, according to the survey.

Despite official propaganda emanating from many governments, especially in the west, regarding the greatest threats to world peace, the majority of people want their governments to focus on poverty reduction, fight corruption, promote economic growth, and improve healthcare and education, while working to reduce income inequality. “Investing in security and defence,” came seventh on the list.

Finally, people in countries which have an overall negative perception of the United States include some of the most influential global and regional powers, such as China, Russia, Indonesia, Austria, Turkiye, Australia and Belgium.

Despite massive media propaganda, censorship and scaremongering, people around the world remain clear on their collective priorities, expectations and aspirations, which are real democracy, social equality and justice. If these collective yearnings continue to be denigrated and ignored, we should expect more social upheaval, if not outright insurrections and military coups in coming years.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor or Informed Comment.

Via Middle East Monitor

Creative Commons LicenseThis work by Middle East Monitor is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.



As international support for an independent Palestine grows, here’s what Israelis and Palestinians now Think of the Two-state Solution

As international support for an independent Palestine grows, here’s what Israelis and Palestinians now Think of the Two-state Solution

By Colin John Irwin, University of Liverpool | – With the announcement by Norway and Ireland that they have recognised Palestine as an independent state, and Spain expected to follow suit by the end of May, it appears that international momentum for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is growing. The concept has long […]

With the announcement by Norway and Ireland that they have recognised Palestine as an independent state, and Spain expected to follow suit by the end of May, it appears that international momentum for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is growing.

The concept has long been supported by the US and its allies, as well as most Arab states and the United Nations. In 2017, Hamas amended its charter to accept the existence of Israel based on borders established after the six-day war in 1967. It reportedly indicated recently a willingness to disarm if a Palestinian state were established. But the present Israeli government led by the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu remains implacably opposed to a two-state solution.

Could things be different under different leadership? To answer this, we need to know whether the Israeli and Palestinian people could be persuaded to accept such a plan. Here it’s worth taking a look at what polling tells us.

Politicians all too often find it convenient to blame the public for their failures. This is particularly true of failed peacemaking. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) has tracked the ups and downs of support for the two-state solution from a high of 51% and 53% for Palestinians and Israeli Jews in polls taken in 2016 to a low of 33% and 34% respectively in 2022.

But pollsters in both Israel and Palestine, who do excellent work to the highest technical standards, sadly have had little or no opportunity to measure public opinion in support of a successful peace process. They measure the situation as it is – in the context of failure. Instead they need to measure what could be, how attitudes could change given proactive political leadership determined to get to peace. With such leadership the numbers change significantly.

Most recently, on the Palestinian side the Institute for Social and Economic Progress asked the two-state solution question in March 2024 in the context of “serious negotiations” and got a 72.5% positive response. This contrasted with PCPSR results a few months earlier in December 2023 which registered support for the two-state solution at only 34% among Palestinians when framed without the context of serious negotiations. Clearly “serious negotiations” are the key.

On the Israeli side, a poll run for the Geneva Initiative in January 2024 got a result of 51.3% support for the two-state solution. Specifically, this was framed in the context of a “return of the hostages agreement, to establish in the future a non-militarised Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, and total normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia”. This was only two percentage points below the high point of support at 53% recorded by the PCPSR in 2016.

Security has always been the top priority for Israelis and when that is factored in, success in negotiations can be assured. And significantly demilitarising a future Palestine is not a deal-breaker for the Palestinians, according to the Institute for Social and Economic Progress March 2024 poll.

A PCPSR poll completed for the Palestine Peace Initiative also in March 2024 found that 50.4% of respondents said the two-state solution would be acceptable to Palestinians providing they also get security and an independent state free from occupation.

The solution then to the implementation of the two-state solution appears to be to combine all the elements that can make it a success.

Additionally the scale that is used is also important. In real negotiations it is important to know where the “red lines” are and what the people can be persuaded to accept given positive political leadership.

Al Jazeera English Video: “Ireland, Spain and Norway say they will recognise Palestine as a state”

In Northern Ireland, where public opinion polls were used to detail every element of a peace agreement, the people were asked what was: “essential” (a red line), what was “desirable” or “acceptable”, what was “tolerable” (not wanted but with political leadership could be made into a “yes”), and what was “unacceptable” under any circumstances (another red line).

When we used this scale to gauge support for a two-state solution in 2009, only 21% of Israelis and 24% of Palestinians considered it “unacceptable”. This compares very favourably with equivalent results for views of power sharing in Northern Ireland in polls I conducted in January 1998 that found it was “unacceptable” for 52% of Protestants and 27% of Catholics. Despite this, with political leadership from the UK, Ireland, the US and EU working together, peace was made.

Clearly the same can be done for Israel and Palestine with the full support of the international community.

Positive polling

Just to make sure, Mina Zemach – the pollster I work with in Israel – ran the 2009 two-state solution (TSS) question for me again in May 2024. The findings are published here for the first time. The result among Israeli respondents was 43% “unacceptable”. It was not as good as the 2009 result – but still better than the result for Northern Ireland where peace was achieved.

Critically then, the two-state solution needs to be tested along with all the positive elements of incentives and process, both international and domestic, that can be deployed to maximise the potential for getting to peace. And when we know what that magic formula is – do it. Turn fiction into fact and end this forever war.

Colin John Irwin, Research Fellow, Department of Politics, University of Liverpool

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.




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