Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO Nightly: The three weeks that could reshape the special relationship

Thursday, May 23, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: The three weeks that could reshape the special relationship

Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak calls a general election at Downing Street today. | Peter Nicholls/Getty Images

RELATIONSHIP TEST — Britain’s Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stood in the pouring rain today outside of 10 Downing Street and called for a snap election on July 4.

That’s months earlier than was expected among British election observers, who envisioned that the United Kingdom would likely hold elections in October or November. And it sets up a whirlwind few weeks in the middle of the summer that could go a long way toward determining the political future of the Anglo-American political world.

The stretch begins on June 27, the date of the first U.S. presidential debate between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Then, precisely one week later on America’s Independence Day — a date of some consequence in the “special relationship” that exists between the two allies — the UK will decide whether to oust Sunak, a result that currently looks likely with his rival Labour leading by double-digits in the polls.

Within days of the outcome, the NATO Summit — a yearly event in which the heads of state of the 32 NATO member countries gather — will take place between July 9-11 in Washington, D.C. It’s set to be a particularly charged discussion, with continued worries about war in Ukraine and Russia’s designs on the eastern part of the continent competing for airtime against the backdrop of European fears about U.S. involvement in NATO should Trump win back the White House.

Capping things off, the Republican National Convention will be held between July 15-18 in Milwaukee, where Trump’s vision for the future of the GOP — and an outline of its policy platform — will be unveiled before a national audience. By then, another matter of some interest in the transatlantic relationship, Trump’s pick for vice president, will be settled.

All of it is set to take place amid worries about an American retreat from Europe at a time of serious geopolitical instability, and questions in Westminster about UK-U.S. relations in the event of a Labour Party triumph that elevates socialist Keir Starmer to prime minister and a presidential contest that elects Trump to a second term.

In recent weeks, Trump has been courting foreign leaders at his home in Mar-a-Lago, suggesting they come to speak with him as he hopes to regain power. Britain’s top diplomat, and former prime minister himself, David Cameron went to see Trump in early April before meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington. The trip was part of an effort to signal to the U.S. — and particularly Trump — that the UK plans to pay their fair share to support NATO.

Late last month, Sunak announced a £75 billion ($95.4 billion) increase in defense spending over the next six years, a huge number meant in part to allay Trump’s fears and convince him to keep the U.S. in NATO.

Yet there are signs that, as unlikely as it seems, a Trump-Starmer relationship could be productive. Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who once described Trump as a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathizing sociopath ,” recently embarked on an American charm offensive that included meeting with influential Trump allies. Lammy has lauded Trump’s defense record and counseled Europeans not to “personalize” the debate over NATO spending.

In the wake of GOP frustration over Cameron’s advocacy in the congressional debate over aid to Ukraine, Elbridge Colby, Trump’s former deputy assistant secretary of defense who could be well positioned for a senior role in a coming Trump administration, told POLITICO earlier this month that, “Based on what I can see, David Lammy is far preferable to David Cameron, obviously. I mean absolutely.”

Labour’s prospective relationship with Trump, in any case, would still be fraught. Just last week, one of the most prominent Labour politicians in the country — London Mayor Sadiq Khan — said that he wants his own party to “call [Trump] out” for being a racist, sexist and a homophobe.

We’ll know more after July 18 — the final day of the GOP convention and two full weeks after the UK election. And whatever the composition of the UK’s next government, one of their first tasks will be figuring out how to work with the U.S. in the middle of an ugly presidential race. They’ll forge either a renewed, happy marriage, or one beset by a new sort of unhappiness.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh .

TRUMP ON TRIAL

ON HOLD — The Trump trial was once again paused, as has become customary on Wednesdays throughout the trial.

MAGA GOP CENSORSHIP!

FLOOR FACEOFF — House Republicans got into a protracted floor fight with Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), who refused to take back comments he made about former President Donald Trump’s ongoing criminal trial in New York.

“Donald Trump might want to be a king, but he’s not a king,” McGovern, the ranking member of the Rules Committee, said on the floor. “We have a presumptive nominee for president facing 88 felony counts, and we’re being prevented from even acknowledging it. … And yet, in this Republican-controlled House, it’s OK to talk about the trial, but you have to call it a sham.”

That prompted Rep. Erin Houchin (R-Ind.) to demand that McGovern’s words be “taken down,” which means they would be effectively stricken from the record. McGovern declined to withdraw them, prompting an extended face-off on the House floor this afternoon.

THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.

Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY .

WHAT'D I MISS?

— Second avian flu human case detected in Michigan farmworker: A second human case of avian influenza tied to the current outbreak of the virus among cows was announced today by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. The infection, found in a Michigan farmworker with “regular exposure to livestock” infected with avian influenza, follows that of a dairy worker in Texas who tested positive for avian influenza earlier this year and experienced pink eye symptoms. Public health experts say the virus’ move from birds into mammals is worrisome due to the risk that the virus evolves to be capable of spreading among humans, but public health officials say the risk of a bird flu pandemic remain low.

— Biden officials are in talks with EU group to help reopen Rafah crossing: The Biden administration is in talks with a European Union organization to potentially help open and take control of the Rafah border crossing in Gaza amid Israel’s invasion of the city, according to a senior administration official and another person familiar with the matter. U.S. officials have for weeks worked behind the scenes, brokering talks between Israel and Egypt, to strike a deal that would put the European organization in charge of the Rafah crossing and significantly improve the flow of aid into the enclave, the people said. The Rafah crossing has been closed since Israel’s invasion of the city May 7.

— Hill leaders discussing details of expected Netanyahu address: Senior leaders in both parties are working to finalize an invitation for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress – but it may not happen as soon as Speaker Mike Johnson would prefer. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer told POLITICO on today, referring to himself, Johnson, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). Schumer’s office said earlier this month that the New York Democrat, who sparked GOP criticism by calling for new elections in Israel and directly criticizing Netanyahu in March, would sign onto a bicameral invitation for the prime minister that Johnson is spearheading. But there’s been little public movement since then. Johnson, speaking to reporters today, said that he hadn’t spoken with Schumer directly about the invitation but that their aides are in touch.

NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

HALEY BOARDS TRUMP TRAIN — Nikki Haley said today that she will vote for Donald Trump , despite maintaining he has “not been perfect” on many policies.

During an event at the Hudson Institute in Washington, her first public speaking event since exiting the presidential race in March, Haley said her priorities as a voter are supporting a president who would back America’s allies and hold its enemies accountable, who would secure the border, support “capitalism and freedom,” and who would lower the national debt. “Trump has not been perfect on these policies. I’ve made that clear many, many times,” Haley said. “But Biden has been a catastrophe.”

BUZZKILL — Former Republican presidential candidate and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has purchased a minority stake in BuzzFeed , the digital publishing company that shut down its media outlet last year. Shares of the company skyrocketed higher today.

Ramaswamy acquired a 7.7% stake in BuzzFeed, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission late Tuesday. Ramaswamy said in the filing that he believes BuzzFeed’s stock is undervalued. He is looking to speak with the company’s board and management.

AROUND THE WORLD

A Finnish armored terrain vehicle is seen during a co-operation between Finnish and Swedish troops on the Swedish island of Gotland. | Anders Wiklun/TT News Agency/AFP via Getty Images

PUTIN’S NEXT TARGET — Russian leader Vladimir Putin has his eyes on the Swedish island of Gotland , warned Sweden’s defense chief Micael Bydén. Gotland, Sweden’s largest island and comparable in size to the smallest U.S. state of Rhode Island, is strategically located in the middle of the Baltic Sea — between Stockholm and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave.

The Russian defense ministry announced a plan Tuesday to expand the country’s territorial waters in the Baltic Sea near its maritime border with Lithuania and Finland, sparking international concern. “I’m sure that Putin even has both eyes on Gotland. Putin’s goal is to gain control of the Baltic Sea,” Bydén, Sweden’s supreme commander of the armed forces, told newspapers of the German editorial network RND.

“If Russia takes control and seals off the Baltic Sea, it would have an enormous impact on our lives — in Sweden and all other countries bordering the Baltic Sea. We can’t allow that,” Bydén said. “The Baltic Sea must not become Putin’s playground where he terrifies NATO members.”

STATEHOOD STAREDOWN — Ireland, Spain and Norway said today they would officially recognize Palestine as a state beginning next week , in a diplomatic move that triggered fury in Israel.

In Dublin, Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris said Palestine deserved the same right to be recognized as a sovereign state that Ireland received after fighting a war of independence from Britain more than a century ago.

But he stressed that Ireland hoped to see resumed diplomacy between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank — and did not want to throw a diplomatic lifeline to Hamas. Regardless, Israel announced this morning that it was recalling its ambassadors from Ireland and Norway with “immediate” effect, in protest at the decisions.

MACRON’S MISFORTUNE — Over the past few weeks, teenager-on-teenager killings, drug-related shootings, a heightened terror threat and deadly protests in the overseas territory of New Caledonia have dominated the airwaves, spelling trouble for the French President Emmanuel Macron and his European election campaign .

Macron is trying to persuade voters to support his pro-EU vision for a strong bloc with France at its center. But he’s already fighting an uphill struggle, with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) consolidating its substantial lead over Macron’s party in the polls.

Now, the succession of headlines about security fears have further derailed Macron’s strategy as the June 9 European Parliament election draws near. Long-term trends surrounding crime and violence are on a downward trajectory in France. But the spectacular nature and rolling media coverage of the violence have driven public debate and effectively blocked Macron’s camp from making a big push on their pro-EU credentials.

LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today .

NIGHTLY NUMBER

200

The number of federal judges confirmed since President Joe Biden took office . Confirming more than 234 judges — the number confirmed during Trump’s presidency — with lifetime appointments would provide Biden with the type of governing imprint that Trump, should he win in November, could not erase.

RADAR SWEEP

READ ALL ABOUT IT — What happened to the big city columnist? As alt-weeklies have disappeared and the local newspapers that still exist are often focused on national news and trends (along with cooking and games), it’s hard to find the columnist who’s writing about and for the culture of a city or town. In The Point, Ross Barkan gives us an example of why those columnists of yore mattered by chronicling the life and work of Jimmy Breslin , who wrote a regular column for numerous NYC-area outlets, most famously the New York Daily News. As Barkan explores, Breslin himself became part of the culture and churn of the city.

PARTING IMAGE