POLITICO Nightly: The Trump trial cheat sheet

 

BY CHARLIE MAHTESIAN AND CALDER MCHUGH Former President Donald Trump departs after attending the civil fraud trial against the Trump Organization in New York State Supreme Court on Jan. 11. | John Lamparski/AFP via Getty Images THE PEOPLE OF THE STATE OF NEW YORK V. DONALD J. TRUMP — One of the most consequential trials in American history kicks off Monday. And among former President Donald Trump’s legal cases, it could be the only criminal trial that is resolved by November. It’s also set to be complex, relying on untested legal theories — largely because the entire situation is new: Never before has an American president or former president gone to trial in a criminal case, and never before has an American president been formally accused of paying hush money. In contrast to other criminal indictments concerning Trump’s efforts to overturn an election and his handling of classified documents, this one rests on whether the former president falsified business records. You have questions? At Nightly, we have answers, with some help from our friends around the newsroom. And every Friday while the trial is in session, we’ll have analysis of the past week’s high and low points and a peek at the week to come. The basics: Next week, in a grim Manhattan courthouse, prosecutors will attempt to prove that Trump falsified business records in connection with a payoff to Stormy Daniels, a porn star who claimed she had a sexual encounter with him. By buying Daniels’ silence, the payoff avoided a possible sex scandal in the final weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign. Michael Cohen, Trump’s personal attorney and “fixer” at the time, paid $130,000 to Daniels in October 2016, according to prosecutors. Then, while in the White House, Trump reimbursed Cohen in a series of installment payments processed by Trump’s company. Prosecutors say Trump fraudulently disguised those installments as corporate legal expenses in violation of New York law. The 42 questions on the juror questionnaire : Among them : Without telling us your address, in what neighborhood do you live? Do you listen to or watch podcasts? If so, which ones? Do you have any strong opinions or firmly held beliefs about former President Donald Trump, or the fact that he is a current candidate for president that would interfere with your ability to be a fair and impartial juror? The potential witness list: On Thursday, NBC News obtained a potential witness list for the trial . In addition to Cohen and Daniels, it includes Karen McDougal, a former Playboy model who also alleges she had an extramarital affair with Trump and was paid off. In addition, prosecutors could call Keith Davidson, the attorney who represented Daniels and McDougal when the payments were made. Then there’s Dylan Howard and David Pecker, the former editor-in-chief of the National Inquirer and the former CEO of American Media, respectively; Howard and Pecker were allegedly responsible for paying McDougal a six-figure sum for the rights to her story so that they could then not publish it in a “catch and kill” tactic. Finally, there’s Hope Hicks and potentially others from the Trump administration and campaign who had knowledge of the situation. The view from a star witness : Michael Cohen, the former Trump attorney and fixer who paid Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about her alleged affair with Trump, says Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s case is stronger than analysts believe . How Donald Trump gets special treatment in the legal system : The former president rails against a “two-tiered system of justice.” But he’s the one benefiting from it. Over the past year, in ways large and small, in criminal cases and civil ones, Trump has consistently been given more freedom and more privileges than virtually any other defendant in his shoes . Why Trump could lose — and why he could win: Trump faces an uphill battle to avoid conviction in the case . Most criminal defendants who go to trial end up being convicted. Trump himself is also incredibly unpopular in Manhattan, and his courtroom antics in recent months have probably not endeared him to many prospective jurors in the borough. Worse still for the former president, Judge Juan Merchan, who is presiding over the trial, significantly narrowed Trump’s potential lines of defense in a series of pretrial rulings on legal and evidentiary issues. But Trump and his lawyers still have two robust defense strategies — first, look for the defense to take a wrecking ball to Michael Cohen in the hopes of taking down the whole case with him. Cohen has lied to Congress, committed perjury in connection with a guilty plea, and fashioned himself as a media commentator, all of which could damage his credibility in the eyes of the jury. Then there’s another, less explored route that Trump’s team could try: asking the judge to give the jury the option of convicting him on lesser, misdemeanor offenses instead of the felony counts that have actually been brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and his team of prosecutors. A person familiar with Trump’s legal strategy told me that some of Trump’s lawyers have quietly — albeit tentatively — considered that option in the run-up to the trial. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com and cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie and @calder_mchugh .   SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW .     WHAT'D I MISS? — House finally passes surveillance bill after three stumbles: The House today passed legislation reauthorizing a controversial government surveillance power — capping off a months-long debate marked by acrimonious GOP infighting. The 273-147 bipartisan vote is a win for embattled Speaker Mike Johnson, who has struggled publicly to bridge the deep divides within his conference. But it also puts him at odds with some of his biggest conservative critics, 88 of whom opposed the bill, as he faces the threat of an ouster vote. — Google blocks some California news as fight over online journalism bill escalates: Californians may find their Google results bereft of local news links today as the search giant escalates its fight against a landmark state bill aimed at forcing tech giants to pay online publishers. Google is temporarily blocking California-based news outlets’ content for some state residents, reprising a political tactic the tech industry has repeatedly used to try to derail such bills in places like Canada and Australia that require online platforms to pay journalism outlets for articles featured on their websites. — Federal appeals panel sharply questions defenders of NJ’s controversial county line: A federal appeals panel today appeared skeptical of arguments defending New Jersey’s controversial primary ballot design as judges weigh whether it should be used for the June primary. The U.S. Third Circuit Court of Appeals panel questioned attorneys on both sides during two hours of oral arguments on whether to keep in place a preliminary injunction from a lower court judge. That preliminary injunction eliminates the state’s unique primary ballot design — known as the county line — for only this year’s primary election and requires office block ballots be used. Only Democratic primary ballots and not GOP primary ballots are subject to the preliminary injunction. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 YOUR DAILY RFK JR. STAFFER IN THE NEWS — The Black voter engagement director for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential campaign posted — and then scrubbed — a homophobic attack against the founder of a Black conservative group . On Wednesday, Angela Stanton King, who has been working with Kennedy’s campaign for months, took to X (formerly known as Twitter) and Instagram to attack Diante Johnson, who hosted former President Donald Trump at a gala event for the Black Conservative Federation in South Carolina in February. BALLOT BEDLAM — Democrats are exploring their options to get President Joe Biden on the ballot in Alabama and Ohio after top Republican elections officials warned that he would miss the deadline to be certified as the Democratic nominee in both states, reports CNN. The offices of Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and Alabama Secretary of State Wes Allen have over the past week notified Democrats that their nominating convention this summer occurs too close to the general election for Biden to make their state ballots. AROUND THE WORLD Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gives a speech during a meeting of the country's top officials in Tehran. | Hossein Fatemi/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images WARNING SIGNS — President Joe Biden today said he expected Iran to attack Israel “sooner rather than later,” delivering a pessimistic assessment even as he warned Tehran against taking such an action. Answering questions from reporters after delivering remarks to a convention of civil rights leaders, Biden said his grim outlook was based on intelligence reports that he was not at liberty to describe further. Asked what he would say to Iran about a potential attack, Biden was terse. “Don’t,” he replied. Expectations for a retaliatory attack have risen in the days since an Israeli strike on an Iranian embassy in Syria killed a number of senior commanders on April 1. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had said that Israel “must be punished” for the embassy attack though Israel has not claimed responsibility for it. The United States has begun restricting staff travel in Israel amid growing fears of an attack, either by Iran or its proxies. Biden vowed that the U.S. would continue to defend Israel from any attacks, even as he has upped his criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handling of the war in Gaza. BELGIUM-GATE — Belgium’s federal prosecutor opened an investigation into the pro-Russian propaganda network which is accused of paying MEPs to promote the Kremlin’s agenda . “Our judicial authorities have now confirmed that this interference is subject to a prosecution,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said during a press conference today. Eric Van Duyse, spokesperson for the federal prosecutor, confirmed to POLITICO that an investigation was opened Thursday evening, on the legal grounds of an attempt to influence democratic procedures. De Croo said that no payments took place in Belgium itself, but that doesn’t impede an investigation.   Access New York bill updates and Congressional activity in areas that matter to you, and use our exclusive insights to see what’s on the Albany agenda. Learn more .     NIGHTLY NUMBER $7.4 billion The amount of student loan debt that the White House announced today it was wiping out . Roughly 277,000 student borrowers will benefit from the latest round of relief. A large chunk of the forgiveness — about $3.6 billion for 206,800 people — is for borrowers enrolled in the Biden administration’s new income-driven repayment plan known as SAVE. RADAR SWEEP GET OFF YOUR PHONE — Social psychologist Jonathan Haidt has pressed the idea that too much smartphone use is to blame for all kinds of social ills among teens today, including suicide rates and children self-reporting that they are unhappy more than they used to . (He’s even appeared in the pages of POLITICO Magazine discussing just that). His new book, The Anxious Generation: How the Great Rewiring of Childhood Is Causing an Epidemic of Mental Illness , has topped nonfiction bestseller lists. But other prominent social psychologists have for years accused Haidt of fueling a moral panic, getting people worked up about an idea with specious data. For Vox, Eric Levitz investigated both claims — and came out with a more nuanced understanding of the situation than either group. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1954: American evangelist Billy Graham reads passages from the Bible to a large, rapt audience in Trafalgar Square, London. | AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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