POLITICO Nightly: Vulnerable Republicans bet their seats on Trump

BY MIA MCCARTHY Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Claremont, New Hampshire, on November 11, 2023. | Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images KISS THE RING — The fate of the GOP House majority this fall rests on a small but pivotal group of lawmakers — the 17 Republicans who represent districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020. In the so-called crossover districts they represent, Donald Trump isn’t exactly an asset at the top of the ticket. So each of the 17 has to carefully consider the political trade-offs between embracing the polarizing former president and distancing themselves from him. Until recently, many of them delayed making any decision at all. But with Trump and Biden now the presumptive party nominees, the issue has become harder and harder to ignore. And it appears the majority of them will throw their lots in with Trump, legal woes and all. “Clearly he’s the nominee,” California Republican Mike Garcia told POLITICO at the Capitol after Super Tuesday. “Who else would I endorse?” Of the 17 Republicans, 11 have endorsed Trump or said they plan to when he formally becomes the nominee. Most of them have come aboard since Nikki Haley dropped out of the race — and as the House GOP campaign chair is advising members to get behind the former president. “I was one of the first people that endorsed Trump this cycle, and I’m proud to run with him. I think he’s a net positive everywhere for us. So if somebody asked, I tell them, ‘embrace him, he’s our nominee,’” said Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. “I mean, he’s wildly popular everywhere right now. He’s winning every battleground state.” The problem is that Trump isn’t wildly popular everywhere — only in some places. In Garcia’s Los Angeles-area district, Trump lost by 12 points in 2020. A presidential nominee who loses a district by that much is a serious drag on a congressional candidate. It’s less of a problem for members like Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), who represents a southwestern Arizona-based district that Biden won by less than a point. Ciscomani endorsed Trump shortly after the Super Tuesday results. California’s Michelle Steel, whose Orange County-based district voted for Biden by six points, decided to quietly endorse — she never announced an endorsement, but was listed by the Trump campaign as a pledged delegate on a list it provided to the California secretary of state in advance of the March 5 primary. Two Republicans — Reps. Marc Molinaro of New York and John Duarte of California — have sidestepped the question for now by saying they will endorse Trump when he becomes the nominee. Only one House Republican has explicitly said he has no plans to weigh in — Rep. David Valadao of California, who represents a Central Valley-based seat where Trump lost by a whopping 13 points. Valadao was one of the ten House Republicans that voted to impeach Trump. That leaves five left to bend the knee. Reps. David Schweikert of Arizona, Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey, Mike Lawler of New York, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Young Kim of California all have yet to make an endorsement in the presidential race. They represent a wide range of districts featuring varying levels of support for Biden. Lawler holds a Hudson Valley-based seat where Biden had a double-digit advantage in 2020, while Schweikert represents a Phoenix-area district that Biden carried by less than two percentage points. Some of them might yet fall in behind their party nominee. Seven of the most recent Trump-embracers made their endorsements right around their state’s primary — and there are upcoming primaries in states that are home to three of the five members who have yet to endorse. Lawler said he plans to weigh in eventually, but at the moment has nothing to say — besides, he added, the intrigue around endorsements is “one of the stupidest things” he’s ever seen. Meanwhile, Kim told POLITICO she isn’t sure if she will endorse at all in the presidential election. The Korean American Republican who represents California’s Orange County has had her own run-in with the former president — in an attempt to mock Virginia GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin, Trump wrote that his name “sounded Chinese” and spelled it similarly to Kim’s name. “Young Kin (now that’s an interesting take. Sounds Chinese, doesn’t it?) in Virginia couldn’t have won without me,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, the social media platform. Many of the vulnerable Republicans attribute their endorsements to a need for change in leadership and insist that Biden is no longer fit to be president, a sentiment they claim is shared by their constituents. “Joe Biden is very unpopular in the district right now. He’s very unpopular across America,” Duarte told POLITICO at the Capitol. “[Trump’s] competent. He’s coherent. What we’ve seen lately with Joe Biden has just been one disaster after another.” The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is already highlighting the awkwardness of the endorsement evaders. Lawler told POLITICO it doesn’t matter whether he, or anyone in Congress, endorses at all. He was called “MAGA Mike” even though he wasn’t in Congress while Trump was president and never endorsed him, he added. “They’re going to say whatever they want to say on the matter anyways,” Lawler told POLITICO. “No matter what.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at mmccarthy@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @Reporter_Mia .   SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW .     WHAT'D I MISS? — Biden: We will do all it takes to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge: President Joe Biden today vowed that the federal government would provide all the resources Baltimore needed to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge after it collapsed in the early hours of the morning. He said he plans to visit the disaster site and stressed that there was no indication that there was intentionality behind the devastating collapse. “We’re going to send all the federal resources they need as we respond to this emergency. I mean all the federal resources — we’re going to rebuild that port together,” Biden said in the Roosevelt Room, before departing the White House for a trip to North Carolina. — Justices appear skeptical of call to restrict abortion pill: The Supreme Court today appeared skeptical of an effort to restrict access to a widely used abortion pill — with conservative and liberal justices alike raising questions about whether anti-abortion doctors can prove concrete injuries that give them standing to sue and whether a national judicial ruling rolling back availability of the drug is justified. During the roughly 90 minutes of oral arguments, two conservative justices likely to be pivotal votes in the case — Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett — expressed repeated doubts about harms the anti-abortion physicians claimed they’ve faced in treating patients who’ve taken abortion pills and needed follow-up care. Those two justices also questioned whether curtailing access to the drug would address those alleged harms. — Judge in hush money case bars Trump from attacking witnesses, lawyers and prospective jurors : Donald Trump has been gagged yet again. The judge overseeing the former president’s upcoming Manhattan criminal trial today imposed a gag order that bars him from attacking “reasonably foreseeable witnesses” or other people involved in the case, in which Trump is accused of falsifying business records connected to a hush money payment. It’s the third case in recent months in which Trump has been restricted in what he can say publicly about the legal proceedings against him. The Manhattan case, with a start date of April 15, is set to be the first Trump criminal case to go to trial. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 VEEP PICK — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. chose tech attorney and entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan to be his running mate , reports POLITICO. Shanahan, who has never run for office before, donated the maximum amount to Kennedy’s campaign and $4 million to the chief super PAC backing his bid to air a retro-themed Super Bowl commercial. In addition to backing American Values 2024, she also gave $500,000 to another super PAC backing Kennedy, Common Sense PAC. Kennedy said he was searching for a running mate who understood technology, government agencies’ vulnerability to corruption, the need for secure borders and an athlete. “So that is why I’m so proud to introduce to you the next vice president of the United States, my fellow lawyer, a brilliant scientist, technologist, a fierce warrior mom, Nicole Shanahan,” Kennedy said in Oakland, California. THE BOOK OF DONALD — Former President Donald Trump is now selling Bibles as he runs to return to the White House, reports the Associated Press. Trump, who became the presumptive Republican nominee earlier this month, released a video on his Truth Social platform today urging his supporters to buy the “God Bless the USA Bible,” which is inspired by country singer Lee Greenwood’s patriotic ballad. Trump takes the stage to the song at each of his rallies and has appeared with Greenwood at events. “Happy Holy Week! Let’s Make America Pray Again. As we lead into Good Friday and Easter, I encourage you to get a copy of the God Bless the USA Bible,” Trump wrote, directing his supporters to a website selling the book for $59.99. BIDEN’S OFFENSIVE PLAY — Everywhere he turns, President Joe Biden and his campaign are playing defense across the 2024 electoral map, reports NBC News. That is except for one state: North Carolina . In the Tar Heel State, where Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris visited today, favorable demographics, a string of major Republican nominees painted as extreme and a rapidly changing electorate that only narrowly backed former President Donald Trump in 2020 has Democrats feeling optimistic about their chances to flip the crucial battleground. THE GOP COLD WAR   — When Nikki Haley dropped out of the 2024 presidential race in early March, she withheld endorsing Donald J. Trump and extended a pointed invitation for him to court her and the political coalition she constructed. “This is now his time for choosing,” she said then, writes the New York Times. It has been nearly three weeks. He has not called. There has never been very much magnanimity in the MAGA movement . But as Trump prepares for a rematch against President Biden that is expected to offer little margin for error — the last race was decided by fewer than 50,000 votes across three states — the question is whether Trump’s decision to bypass any sort of reconciliation with Haley after a brutal and personal primary will matter. AROUND THE WORLD A farmer in a tractor and burning tires block a street during a demonstration in Brussels today. | James Arthur Gekiere/Belga/AFP via Getty Images CRACKING DOWN — One person was arrested and two police officers were injured in Brussels’ European Quarter today during a rowdy farmers’ protest which turned violent as demonstrators started throwing firebombs and debris at law enforcement, POLITICO EU reports. About 250 tractors arrived in Brussels this morning, in a new demonstration against policies which they say are whacking their business. It was a smaller demonstration than previous ones this year, but no less rowdy, as farmers threw eggs at police officers, set piles of hay and tires ablaze, honked their tractors’ horns and set off firecrackers. Tensions further escalated as the day went on, as protesters set fire to Schuman metro station, throwing debris down the stairs leading to the entrance. Police also deployed water cannons and tear gas to disperse the crowd and tame fires.   Access New York bill updates and Congressional activity in areas that matter to you, and use our exclusive insights to see what’s on the Albany agenda. Learn more .     NIGHTLY NUMBER $300,000 The amount of money that Texas GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton will have to pay in restitution to settle securities fraud charges that he’s been facing for nearly a decade. Paxton will also have to complete 100 hours of community service and 15 hours of legal ethics education as part of a pre-trial agreement that will ultimately dismiss the charges. RADAR SWEEP KILLER REPURPOSED — It’s well documented how breathing in asbestos can harm the lungs and eventually lead to diseases including cancer. That’s why governments are increasingly banning the product and attempting to remove it from places it is often found like pipes. Most of the asbestos that’s been removed ends up in a landfill. But with worries that it can escape a landfill and go back to poisoning air or water supply, researchers are working on the process of “denaturing” the killer , changing its properties so that it’s no longer dangerous and can then be reused in construction materials. Some small processing plants in Europe are beginning to do just that with positive results. Katharine Quarmby reports for the BBC. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1968: People reach out to grab the hand of Senator Robert Kennedy as he mounted a platform to speak in Watts section of Los Angeles. Kennedy, who was seeking the Democratic Presidential nomination, was killed just months later. | AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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