KISS THE RING — The fate of the GOP House majority this fall rests on a small but pivotal group of lawmakers — the 17 Republicans who represent districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020. In the so-called crossover districts they represent, Donald Trump isn’t exactly an asset at the top of the ticket. So each of the 17 has to carefully consider the political trade-offs between embracing the polarizing former president and distancing themselves from him. Until recently, many of them delayed making any decision at all. But with Trump and Biden now the presumptive party nominees, the issue has become harder and harder to ignore. And it appears the majority of them will throw their lots in with Trump, legal woes and all. “Clearly he’s the nominee,” California Republican Mike Garcia told POLITICO at the Capitol after Super Tuesday. “Who else would I endorse?” Of the 17 Republicans, 11 have endorsed Trump or said they plan to when he formally becomes the nominee. Most of them have come aboard since Nikki Haley dropped out of the race — and as the House GOP campaign chair is advising members to get behind the former president. “I was one of the first people that endorsed Trump this cycle, and I’m proud to run with him. I think he’s a net positive everywhere for us. So if somebody asked, I tell them, ‘embrace him, he’s our nominee,’” said Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. “I mean, he’s wildly popular everywhere right now. He’s winning every battleground state.” The problem is that Trump isn’t wildly popular everywhere — only in some places. In Garcia’s Los Angeles-area district, Trump lost by 12 points in 2020. A presidential nominee who loses a district by that much is a serious drag on a congressional candidate. It’s less of a problem for members like Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), who represents a southwestern Arizona-based district that Biden won by less than a point. Ciscomani endorsed Trump shortly after the Super Tuesday results. California’s Michelle Steel, whose Orange County-based district voted for Biden by six points, decided to quietly endorse — she never announced an endorsement, but was listed by the Trump campaign as a pledged delegate on a list it provided to the California secretary of state in advance of the March 5 primary. Two Republicans — Reps. Marc Molinaro of New York and John Duarte of California — have sidestepped the question for now by saying they will endorse Trump when he becomes the nominee. Only one House Republican has explicitly said he has no plans to weigh in — Rep. David Valadao of California, who represents a Central Valley-based seat where Trump lost by a whopping 13 points. Valadao was one of the ten House Republicans that voted to impeach Trump. That leaves five left to bend the knee. Reps. David Schweikert of Arizona, Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey, Mike Lawler of New York, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Young Kim of California all have yet to make an endorsement in the presidential race. They represent a wide range of districts featuring varying levels of support for Biden. Lawler holds a Hudson Valley-based seat where Biden had a double-digit advantage in 2020, while Schweikert represents a Phoenix-area district that Biden carried by less than two percentage points. Some of them might yet fall in behind their party nominee. Seven of the most recent Trump-embracers made their endorsements right around their state’s primary — and there are upcoming primaries in states that are home to three of the five members who have yet to endorse. Lawler said he plans to weigh in eventually, but at the moment has nothing to say — besides, he added, the intrigue around endorsements is “one of the stupidest things” he’s ever seen. Meanwhile, Kim told POLITICO she isn’t sure if she will endorse at all in the presidential election. The Korean American Republican who represents California’s Orange County has had her own run-in with the former president — in an attempt to mock Virginia GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin, Trump wrote that his name “sounded Chinese” and spelled it similarly to Kim’s name. “Young Kin (now that’s an interesting take. Sounds Chinese, doesn’t it?) in Virginia couldn’t have won without me,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, the social media platform. Many of the vulnerable Republicans attribute their endorsements to a need for change in leadership and insist that Biden is no longer fit to be president, a sentiment they claim is shared by their constituents. “Joe Biden is very unpopular in the district right now. He’s very unpopular across America,” Duarte told POLITICO at the Capitol. “[Trump’s] competent. He’s coherent. What we’ve seen lately with Joe Biden has just been one disaster after another.” The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is already highlighting the awkwardness of the endorsement evaders. Lawler told POLITICO it doesn’t matter whether he, or anyone in Congress, endorses at all. He was called “MAGA Mike” even though he wasn’t in Congress while Trump was president and never endorsed him, he added. “They’re going to say whatever they want to say on the matter anyways,” Lawler told POLITICO. “No matter what.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at mmccarthy@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @Reporter_Mia .
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