SHAKY GROUND — As Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Israel today after meetings with Arab leaders, his task will be to manage a strained relationship between the two historic allies. With the bloody war in the region — which has included Israel killing tens of thousands of civilians in Gaza — leading the Pope to rebuke the Israeli government , some U.S. officials are getting increasingly frustrated with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And according to POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi, some of those officials are “starting to wonder if he’s really in charge.” Netanyahu has been a political survivor in Israel for decades and is in his third stint serving as the country’s prime minister, despite being indicted on charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery in 2019. But now, only 15 percent of Israelis say they want him to remain in office after the war — protesters today sat outside the Knesset (Israel’s parliament) calling for new elections. He’s also getting pressure from his right flank, as far-right ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir are resistant to U.S. pressure to moderate on the war. Complicating matters, in December Netanyahu’s corruption trial resumed after a post-Oct. 7 pause.
Dozens of Israeli demonstrators demanding new elections have held a sit-in protest outside parliament.
The group, calling on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to step down, was forcibly removed by police.
There are reports of at least one arrest.
Netanyahu's government has grown increasingly unpopular, over its handling of the war on Gaza.
It all adds up to an unstable leader that some in the White House are increasingly beginning to question, as Toosi writes today in her newly launched column “Compass.” To get a better sense of where the U.S.-Israel relationship stands and understand Netanyahu’s political prospects, Nightly spoke with Toosi. This conversation has been edited. Just how strained is the White House’s relationship with Netanyahu at the moment? It’s not great. It’s certainly worse than both sides are letting on publicly. The U.S. remains sympathetic to Israel’s deep pain over the Oct. 7 Hamas atrocities, and overall it’s supportive of the goal of destroying the group. But it’s been three months now, and Netanyahu appears unable or unwilling to make decisions that the U.S. — including President Joe Biden — believes are important to the long-term prospects for peace, such as helping in ways to repair the Palestinian Authority. And it seems like he’s holding back because he’s worried his coalition partners further to his right will abandon him, ending his prime ministership and possibly making it more likely he’ll go to prison on corruption charges. So U.S. officials are basically grinding their teeth as they deal with him. How much does that have to do with Netanyahu’s own political problems at home, and what are the contours of those problems? A great deal of the fix Netanyahu finds himself in is arguably of his own making. He faces three court cases that include multiple charges, including fraud and bribery. In one, he’s accused of inappropriately accepting lavish gifts from wealthy businessmen but there’s more serious allegations, too. He denies any wrongdoing and who knows where the cases will end up. But it’s been pretty clear from his actions, such as the contentious legislation he’s willing to support, that he wants to stay in power, and that he believes that staying in power might help shield him from his legal problems. But the Israeli public also is infuriated with Netanyahu because of the security failure that led to the Hamas attack on Oct. 7. This is a guy who has built his image around the idea that he can protect Israel. But he’s been unwilling to admit to failure and even hinting he won’t quit once the war ends. So one key question is how long will the Israeli public — which does want some political stability amid the war — allow him to stick around? Not to mention his own party. How much are ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir setting policy in Israel right now? What are their goals and how much influence over Netanyahu’s political fate do they wield? They are not part of Israel’s emergency war cabinet, so their role in direct military decisions related to Gaza is technically very limited. But they’re part of Netanyahu’s elected governing coalition, so they can weigh in on decisions that are otherwise related to the conflict, such as opposing sending financial aid to Palestinian leaders in the West Bank. Netanyahu can’t ignore them because he doesn’t want his governing coalition to collapse, which could lead him to lose his job. But Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are causing him a lot of headaches by proposing policies that he knows are anathema to much of the world, such as encouraging or forcing Palestinians in Gaza to migrate to other countries. Both Smotrich and Ben-Gvir hold tremendous antipathy toward Palestinians. Are U.S. officials behind the scenes discussing what a leadership change would mean for Israel? How are they preparing for that possibility? Yes, but in careful, coded ways. It’s not like they’re holding high-level meetings about it — at least none that I’ve heard about. Their sense is that a great deal will depend on who would succeed Netanyahu. I know that seems like an obvious statement, but sometimes in foreign policy you have to state the obvious. One thing U.S. officials are doing is keeping in touch with other leaders in Israel who could be the next prime minister, such as Benny Gantz. One thing that’s clear is that whoever replaces Netanyahu will continue to wage war against Hamas militants and other groups who threaten Israel. That’s just something nearly all Israelis agree has to continue. But the way in which the war is waged could change, and depending on who is in charge, they might increasingly turn to tactics that are less military in nature and more about diplomacy with Arab countries or taking down financial networks or other means. There’s a basket of tools that can be used in different ways, and a new leader might change tactics to a degree. A new leader might also be more willing to think long-term about Israeli-Palestinian peace, which could require some hard decisions Netanyahu doesn’t appear willing to make. How does the U.S. want Israel’s wartime policy to evolve? At the moment, it wants Israel to shift into a more targeted campaign that kills fewer civilians and allows in more humanitarian aid. There are some changes along these lines, but the Biden team doesn’t think it’s happening fast enough. And they’re really worried about the fallout for Israel’s standing globally, not to mention America’s. More long run — the U.S. wants Israel to think about what Gaza will look like once the heavy fighting ends. Well, it’s going to be a big pile of rubble, but what I mean is how to rebuild and make the place safe for civilians and free of armed militants. The Israelis have done more thinking about “day after” scenarios than they’ve shared publicly, but the administration wants to hear more. So would I, for that matter. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh .
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