In the Land of the Blind, the one-eyed woman is Queen?

 

In the Land of the Blind, the one-eyed woman is Queen?

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“[E]vidence has been piling up that Haley might actually have something on her hands — buoyed by strong debate performances, poll numbers that have been consistently climbing and a growing chorus of Republicans telling all the boys to pack up and let her take Trump head on.

“On the latter, there seems to be broad agreement that for Haley, New Hampshire is, if not make-or-break, definitely the venue that can solidify her status as the non-Trump Republican in this race.

“WHY NEW HAMPSHIRE? Let’s assume, for a moment, that Trump wins Iowa. Who gets second place, and how does that fit into the meta narrative about their campaign? Are they positioned to capitalize on a second-place showing in the next two early states: New Hampshire and South Carolina?

“Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’S numbers are sliding in Iowa — since August, he’s dropped about 3 points while Haley has jumped up 10, per the esteemed Iowa Poll. A second-place finish for him is unlikely to change the sense of try-hard lethargy that has surrounded his campaign. He’s already polling in third place in New Hampshire (the trendline of his RCP polling average in the state is a downhill schuss), and it’s hard to imagine him besting Haley in South Carolina, her home state, where she was twice elected governor.

“Haley’s allies make the case that Iowa is do or die for DeSantis, and that by contrast, she is the only candidate in a strong position in all three early states.

“Since the first debate, Haley’s polling in New Hampshire has grown from just 3% in August to nearly 20% in recent polls, leapfrogging over DeSantis to second place.

“She has a good chance to get second in Iowa. She’s prepared for a potential upset in New Hampshire. You can feel her coming on,” says MIKE MURPHY, longtime GOP operative who masterminded JOHN McCAIN’s insurgent 2000 campaign that famously won New Hampshire.

“And, Murphy notes, there’s this: “People forget that New Hampshire is not a Republican-only primary.”

“Indeed, registered Republicans and voters who are registered “undeclared” — of which, there are some 344,000 — can vote in New Hampshire’s GOP primary.

“Watch out for the “undeclared” voter. Apologies to DEAN PHILLIPS, but JOE BIDEN is not on the ballot, and people who might otherwise vote in the Dem primary may instead find themselves drawn to cast a ballot in the GOP primary. And being a non-Trumpy Republican is likely a great asset.

“Ahead of the Oct. 7 cutoff to lock in their registration, 3,542 Democratic voters in the state switched to “undeclared,” and another 408 registered as Republican. Earth-shaking? Hardly. But enough to make a difference in a close race.

“Haley has “waged a very New Hampshire-like campaign,” says JIM DEMERS, a longtime New Hampshire Democrat. “She’s done a lot of town hall meetings. It’s very similar to the John McCain effort, where he had the town halls all across the state.”

“If there’s a breakout candidate, she could be the one,” he says. “But there’s so much territory to have to make up on Trump.”

“One factor that could make a surprise N.H. win a springboard: “Before, you never had a New Hampshire upstart winner already have strength in South Carolina,” Murphy says. “Normally you’re way behind the eight ball — you fly from New Hampshire, and you’re struggling to catch up.” Haley won’t have that problem.”

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Politico Playbook Blog, 11/3/23. Capitalization in original.