 | By Charlie Mahtesian | | 
Democratic vice presidential nominee, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, speaks during a campaign rally in Philadelphia on Aug. 6, 2024. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | SON OF THE PIVOT COUNTIES — When Kamala Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate today, the move was welcomed in many quarters of the Democratic Party because of his progressive credentials and his profile as the prototypical do-no-harm running mate. He is a vice presidential pick who provides regional balance — he’s expected to serve as the ticket’s Blue Wall whisperer — without alienating any of the party’s key interest groups or ideological wings. As the governor of a Midwestern state that hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate in over a half-century, Walz might not offer the same swing state strategic value as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro or Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, two of the veep prospects Harris bypassed. But his profile is marked by one largely overlooked trait that could be of great value in November. Walz is a product of the so-called Pivot Counties, a collection of roughly 200 counties across the nation that voted twice for Barack Obama before flipping to Donald Trump in 2016. More than 80 of these places are clustered in just four states: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. They tend to be whiter, less affluent, less educated and smaller in population than the U.S. average. The counties tend to be rural or small-town oriented — precisely the kinds of places where Democrats have been hemorrhaging votes in recent decades. The southern Minnesota House district Walz represented in Congress for six terms is teeming with these counties — eight of them in all, including his home county. The political skills and style he honed in that crucible are likely to prove invaluable to the ticket. Why? Walz learned not only how to win as a Democrat in a conservative-minded area — his initial 2006 victory was one of the biggest House upsets that year — but how to defend and sell progressive policies to skeptical white working class voters. Walz managed to survive the 2010 Republican landslide that buried most other similarly situated Democrats, and withstood the undertow from Trump’s runaway 15-point victory over Hillary Clinton in southern Minnesota. When he decided to run for governor in 2018, Walz was the last non-Twin Cities metro Democrat standing in the state congressional delegation. His district flipped to the Republican Party immediately after he left. There are limits, of course, to what a progressive Minnesota governor can do to help deliver industrial states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for Harris. He can’t create the energy and enthusiasm that will be necessary to amp up big city turnout or reproduce Joe Biden’s huge suburban margins — that will be up to Harris. Instead, his value will be in tamping down rural Republican margins in competitive states, projecting an image at odds with how many perceive the national Democratic Party and messaging on progressive policies. His ability to speak to voters who have otherwise tuned out the party could make him especially effective on the attack against Trump. If Walz is even moderately successful in taking on the GOP ticket in non-metropolitan areas, he will be doing a great service for Harris. It’s a page from the Obama playbook — shaving down the percentages in landslide Republican areas — and it was part of the victorious Democratic model in 2020, when Biden made modest advances over Clinton’s performance in rural America. Walz could be especially useful in neighboring Wisconsin, which is home to 23 pivot counties, and Michigan, which is home to 12. Pennsylvania has just three pivot counties — Erie, Luzerne and Northampton — but they are especially relevant. Each casts well over 100,000 votes and two of them ditched Trump for Biden in 2020. Harris’ ability to reach these kinds of voters is still in question, largely because she’s never really had to. Not in her one-party home state of California (which has no pivot counties) and not in 2020, when Biden largely handled the blue-collar portfolio. As vice president, Harris has spent much of her time feeding the party base. Biden was able to win back 25 of the 206 pivot counties in 2020, so these voters are not completely out of reach for Democrats. Walz can be of great assistance with that mission. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie .
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| | During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more. | | | | | | | Although it's unclear at this time, WE need to recognize that U.S. actions in the Middle East provoke terrorists actions. Our support of GAZA GENOCIDE and unconditional support for ISRAEL's barbarism is not being ignored. — Pakistani man charged with murder-for-hire plot that may have targeted Trump: A Pakistani man suspected of plotting on behalf of Iran to kill high-ranking U.S. politicians or officials — including perhaps former President Donald Trump — is in U.S. custody after being charged with trying to hire hit men to carry out the plot , according to U.S. officials and court documents. U.S. officials said Tuesday that the plot was not connected to the assassination attempt on Trump at a rally in Butler County, Pennsylvania, on the day following Merchant’s arrest. Rather, officials said, the plot appears to be related to efforts by Iran to retaliate for the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in a U.S. drone strike Trump ordered in Iraq in 2020. — Tennessee congressman says FBI took his phone in campaign finance probe: Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee said Tuesday that the FBI confiscated his cellphone in an investigation into issues with his campaign finance reporting . The first-term member of the conservative Freedom Caucus said on the social platform X that the FBI took his phone last Friday and he promised to fully cooperate with the agency, saying he already has done so with the Federal Election Commission. — Calm returns to Wall Street, and stocks bounce back after their worst drop in nearly 2 years: A rising tide swept stocks higher, and calm returned to Wall Street after Japan’s market soared earlier Tuesday to claw back much of the losses from its worst day since 1987. The S&P 500 climbed 1% to break a brutal three-day losing streak. It had tumbled a bit more than 6% on a raft of concerns, including worries the Federal Reserve had pressed the brakes too hard for too long on the U.S. economy through high interest rates in order to beat inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 294 points, or 0.8%, while the Nasdaq composite gained 1%. Stocks of all kinds climbed in a mirror opposite of the day before, from smaller companies that need U.S. households to keep spending to huge multinationals more dependent on the global economy. | | WHY WALZ — Kamala Harris loved Tim Walz’s governing record in Minnesota . His biography and record of winning tough races resonated with her. And most of all, she just really liked him. The Minnesota governor and vice president sat down for a one-on-one interview Sunday and connected, despite having little relationship prior to the vice presidential selection process, according to two people close to the process granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. But several other factors were important to Harris as well, according to one of the people. Harris appreciated Walz’s two terms as governor because he had accomplishments in Minnesota that Harris wants to replicate in her presidency — access to reproductive health, paid leave, child tax credits and gun safety. WHY HOUSE DEMS PUSHED FOR WALZ — House Democrats have often chafed at President Joe Biden’s favoritism for the Senate. So, when they pushed Tim Walz for vice president, they had more than ideology on their minds — they wanted one of their own . House Democrats have grumbled for years that Biden doesn’t really understand their chamber, a complaint compounded by the fact that Vice President Kamala Harris was also a former Senate fixture. Even while Democratic lawmakers were happy to pass major legislative priorities like the infrastructure law and the Inflation Reduction Act during Biden’s tenure, the process often left them feeling run over. THE NEXT BOOGEYMAN — Republicans are racing to define Tim Walz as the next liberal boogeyman , hoping to capitalize on voters’ unfamiliarity with Vice President Kamala Harris’ new running mate before Democrats can introduce him to the country. THE ELECTORAL PLAY — Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz may be able to shore up support among people the Democratic party has recently struggled with — white, blue-collar workers and men — even as Vice President Kamala Harris’ candidacy has reenergized Democratic women, younger, Black and Latino voters. Her new running mate, who’s a veteran and a former teacher with a Midwestern demeanor, holds an appeal that could be critical in the three states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — and could make or break the race. TIM WALZ POLICY GUIDE : Where he stands on abortion, unions, energy and more . 55 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT TIM WALZ : Did you know he once earned an “A” rating from the National Rifle Association ? VETERAN POLITICIAN — Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz joins the Democratic ticket with a record of military service and work on veterans’ issues that could help Vice President Kamala Harris make the argument that the Democratic Party is the one that can protect the country’s national security. Harris’ pick for vice president has a thin foreign policy resume and his stances largely mirror that of his running mate. Yet Walz also spent 24 years in the Army National Guard before retiring as a command sergeant major, making him the highest-ranking enlisted soldier to serve in Congress when he joined the House in 2007. While he was deployed abroad to regions including the Arctic Circle during his military service, he did not see combat, unlike his Republican counterpart, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio). THE GEORGE FLOYD FACTOR — Tim Walz first got Donald Trump’s attention after civil unrest broke out in Minnesota and across the country in 2020 . Then president, Trump blistered the governor for the protests that consumed Minneapolis following George Floyd’s murder, and for not moving faster to deploy the National Guard. And though Walz’s state is not expected to be competitive this year, the handling of that crisis by Kamala Harris’ newly-minted running mate is likely to be a focal point again now. | | | 
Yahya Sinwar chairs a meeting with leaders of Palestinian factions at his office in Gaza City on April 13, 2022. | Adel Hana/AP | NEW HAMAS LEADER — Hamas on Tuesday named Yahya Sinwar, its top official in Gaza who masterminded the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel, as its new leader in a dramatic sign of the power of the Palestinian group’s hard-line wing after his predecessor was killed in a presumed Israeli strike in Iran. The selection of Sinwar, a secretive figure close to Iran who worked for years to build up Hamas’ military strength, was a defiant signal that the group is prepared to keep fighting after 10 months of destruction from Israel’s campaign in Gaza and after the assassination of Sinwar’s predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh. | | | |
24 The number of years Democratic vice presidential pick Tim Walz spent in the Army National Guard. |
| | | CRIME DOG — Reports suggest that dog thefts are on the rise in the U.S., a troubling phenomenon that led criminal justice researchers to study 82 incidents of dog thefts captured on surveillance cameras and posted online. What they found will be disturbing to dog owners everywhere. The vast majority of incidents – 74% – involved the theft of a single animal, and these were usually small dogs. Only a few dogs nipped or barked as they were being whisked away; over half appeared calm during the incident, while around 33% acted friendly toward the thieves. When dognappings happened outside, the dogs were usually snatched from people’s front yards, where the pets could be seen from the street. Ben Stickle and Brenda Vose write about the dark world of dognapping in The Conversation . | | | 
On this date in 1926: Nineteen-year-old Gertrude Ederle of New York City becomes the first woman to swim the English Channel, as she crosses the waterway in 14 hours and 31 minutes. | AP |
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