POLITICO Nightly: RFK Jr. and the ballot access wars

 

BY PEDER SCHAEFER Presented by the Financial Services Forum RFK JR IS A DERANGED LUNATIC, LIKELY FROM LONG TERM HEROIN ADDICTION FOR WHICH HE WAS ARRESTED  IF YOU SCRUTINIZE IS RECORD, HE LIES, CONTRADICTS HIMSELF, DENIES HE SAID THINGS THAT WERE RECORDED ON VIDEO SUCH AS CLAIMING COVID WAS GENETICALLY ENGINEERED.  RFK Jr. defends his ‘ethnically targeted’ COVID-19 comments https://nypost.com/2023/07/16/rfk-jr-defends-his-ethnically-targeted-covid-19-comments/ Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., testifies before a House Judiciary Select Subcommittee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, July 20, 2023. | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo SPOILER ALERT — Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is polling as high as the low twenties in a three-way race with President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and is sure to attract an additional burst of publicity when he announces his vice presidential candidate next week in California . But his ability to generate buzz won’t have much value unless Kennedy is able to get his name on ballots across the country in November. At the moment, his prospects are looking dicey. Ballot access is a complicated and expensive endeavor that will require gathering hundreds of thousands of signatures across the country. And Kennedy will have to contend with determined opposition from the Democratic Party and outside groups that are trying to thwart his efforts out of fear that he could play spoiler and swing the election to Trump. His campaign is officially on the ballot in one state so far — Utah. But it says it has collected enough signatures to also qualify in Nevada, Hawaii and New Hampshire. American Values 2024, a pro-Kennedy super PAC, says it has collected enough signatures to get him on the ballot in Michigan, South Carolina, Arizona and Georgia. Even if he got on the ballot in just a handful of those states — say, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire — Kennedy could have a significant effect on the outcome in November. Both major-party campaigns know it. “The ballot access issue is a real loser for the [Democratic National Committee],” said Tony Lyons, a co-founder of American Values 2024. “I think they are going to lose a lot of voters who actually care about democracy.” But it’s important to keep in mind there’s a big difference between meeting signature requirements and actually getting a candidate on the ballot. Every state has different ballot access laws, creating a minefield of legal minutiae and statutory levers that those opposing ballot access can use to try and keep a candidate off the ticket. It’s a long and circuitous process. “The issue is not getting the signatures,” said Richard Winger, a ballot access professional who is the publisher and founder of Ballot Access News. “It’s the chance that some tiny little thing could go wrong.” In the past week the Democratic Party and other outside groups have put together a team to oppose third-party and independent candidates, a sign that Democrats are ready to fight back against candidacies they perceive as spoiler threats, like Kennedy. The effort is staffed by longtime operatives like communications consultant Lis Smith, who helped guide Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 presidential campaign, and Dana Remus, who until recently served as Biden’s White House counsel, underscoring the seriousness of the concern. The Democratic National Committee calls Kennedy a “stalking horse” who will increase Trump’s chances of winning in November. They point to significant contributions from Timothy Mellon , a Trump mega donor, to American Values 2024, and to lingering concerns that in 2016 third-party candidates may have tipped the presidency to Trump. While Democratic attention was initially directed toward the wide array of third-party contenders, such as independent Cornel West and the No Labels coalition, Kennedy has become the focus of more energy as of late. “We're expecting a close election in 2024 and we are going to be prepared for every contingency,” said Matt Corridoni, a DNC spokesperson. “This includes making sure independent and third party candidates play by the rules.” A new outside group of Biden allies, the Clear Choice super PAC, has also formed and is aimed at stopping any independent or third-party candidates from challenging the anti-Trump coalition, according to the Washington Post . Kennedy is fighting back against some of these efforts. In some states, his campaign has filed lawsuits to give his team more time to collect signatures. And Kennedy has sought to start new political parties in six states to improve his chances of getting on the ballot — in some states, it’s easier to get on the ballot by registering voters for an entirely new political party. But one group Kennedy won’t be able to count on for ballot access support anymore is American Values 2024. Lyons told Nightly that the pro-Kennedy super PAC was transitioning into creating a series of ads supporting Kennedy’s candidacy — including one 30-minute infomercial — that the group will begin releasing in the next three weeks. Lyons said the ad buy would aim to break through with Baby Boomers who may be less aware of Kennedy and would be in the $10 million to $20 million range. Russell Verney, a former advisor to Ross Perot’s two independent presidential campaigns in the 1990s, said Kennedy faces a tough road ahead. “It’s a big hurdle to get on the ballot in states across the country,” said Verney, who managed Perot’s 1996 effort. “The Republicans and Democrats don’t like competition, so every time an independent candidate comes in the main parties increase the barriers to get on the ballot.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at pschaefer@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @p_s_schaefer .   A message from the Financial Services Forum: Independent studies have shown that raising capital requirements could cost the U.S. over $100 billion per year. Moreover, a new study by former Fed Governor Randall Kroszner warns that, as written, Basel III Endgame may shift more activity to less-regulated non-banks. See the research.   WHAT'D I MISS? — Johnson spurs fresh conservative fury with new spending deal: Speaker Mike Johnson is plowing forward with his plan to fund the government — at a cost. House conservatives have renewed their threats that any actions against the Louisiana Republican are on the table , incensed over the latest spending deal that Johnson reached with Democrats and how quickly he’s pushing the legislation to the floor. In the past, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the House Freedom Caucus, had broadly defended Johnson and dismissed talk of taking direct action against him, such as calling a vote to remove him from the speakership. But after leadership released legislative text for the massive spending bill in the middle of the night, Norman fired a direct warning shot on Thursday morning. “We’ll just see,” Norman said when asked if calling for a vote to oust Johnson is an option. “I like Mike as a person. He’s honest. I just don’t know if it’s in his DNA to fight. … This is just sad.” — Apple hit with DOJ antitrust suit: The Justice Department and a group of state attorneys general filed a sweeping antitrust case against Apple on Thursday, accusing the $2.7 trillion company of violating antitrust law by illegally monopolizing smartphone markets and raising costs for consumers, developers, artists and others. Attorneys general in 15 states including California, New Jersey, Oklahoma, North Dakota and Washington, D.C., joined the complaint, filed in New Jersey federal court. — Garland: ‘Absurd’ to think he should’ve censored special counsel report on Biden: Attorney General Merrick Garland dismissed as “absurd” the idea that he should have edited or withheld a special counsel report slamming President Joe Biden’s memory. In his first remarks responding to criticism of his decision to release special counsel Robert Hur’s report last month referring to Biden as an “elderly man with a poor memory,” Garland said Thursday that publishing the full report on Biden’s handling of classified information was consistent with the tradition of transparency for such reports. — Indicted Sen. Bob Menendez declines reelection as Democrat, may run as independent: Sen. Bob Menendez — the New Jersey Democrat who got his start 50 years ago as an anti-corruption mayor but is now charged with 16 federal counts and accusations of being a foreign agent — will not run for reelection as a Democrat this year , he said Thursday. But the state’s senior senator is still keeping the door open for an independent run.   SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW .     NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 CASH-STRAPPED — Donald Trump’s new joint fundraising agreement with the Republican National Committee directs donations to his campaign and a political action committee that pays the former president’s legal bills before the RNC gets a cut, according to a fundraising invitation obtained by The Associated Press . The unorthodox diversion of funds to the Save America PAC makes it more likely that Republican donors could see their money go to Trump’s lawyers, who have received at least $76 million over the last two years to defend him against four felony indictments and multiple civil cases. Some Republicans are already troubled that Trump’s takeover of the RNC could shortchange the cash-strapped party. RUBIO FOR VP? — Marco Rubio hasn’t spoken with former President Donald Trump about being his vice president, the senator said in a brief Thursday interview , following reports that the Florida Republican was on Trump's shortlist. And Rubio sounds open to the idea, POLITICO writes. “If anybody has been offered the chance to be vice president, they should consider that an honor and an incredible opportunity to serve our country. But that hasn’t happened, I haven’t spoken to anybody on his campaign about it,” Rubio said. “Never once have I talked to [Trump] about vice presidency.” BULL MARKET — Shares of former President Donald J. Trump’s social media company could start trading on the stock market as early as Monday, immediately raising his net worth by around $3 billion — wealth that Trump may be able to tap to pay his mounting legal bills as he seeks a second presidential term, reports the New York Times. Trump urgently needs to come up with cash by Monday to cover a $454 million penalty imposed by a New York judge, who found that he had fraudulently inflated the value of his real estate properties in dealings with banks. This week, he asked an appeals court to pause the judgment or accept a much smaller bond. Last year, one of his political action committees spent $50 million on legal bills. The imminent public debut of Trump Media & Technology Group — the parent company of the Truth Social digital platform — could provide Trump a way to raise cash, but it won’t be straightforward. PARDON POWER — More than a dozen people pardoned of their crimes or who had their sentences commuted by Donald Trump have since aided the former president as he seeks a return to power , reports CNN. Some have donated their considerable wealth to the cause. A handful endure on the periphery of his political operation as purveyors of Trump’s false conspiracies about the 2020 election, like former top adviser Steve Bannon. Others are outspoken backers with considerable followings, such as rapper Kodak Black, conservative writer and Trump biographer Conrad Black and Phil Lyman, a former state representative now running for Utah governor. YASS MAN — The biggest donor in this election cycle is Jeffrey Yass, a libertarian trading firm owner who started off as a professional poker player and is now a major investor in TikTok's Chinese owner ByteDance, according to Reuters. Philadelphia-based Yass has donated more than $46 million to Republican causes so far in the 2024 election cycle , data from political donations tracker OpenSecrets shows. The funds have gone to support former rivals of Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination, as well as a raft of groups supporting school choice, programs that use taxpayer dollars to send students to private and religious schools. Yass, 65, was thrust into the spotlight this month after Trump reversed course on his preference for banning TikTok, saying that a ban would hurt some children and only strengthen Meta Platforms' Facebook. Trump made the comments days after he met Yass at a gathering of the conservative Club for Growth donor group in Florida. The U-turn on TikTok amid a major cash crunch led to speculation that Trump may be trying to court Yass. VIVA RFK — Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is courting Latino voters , and he’s enlisting the help of ex-Los Angeles Sheriff Alex Villanueva, whose pugilistic style has been compared to Donald Trump. Villanueva will join Kennedy at a Cesar Chavez Day event in Los Angeles next weekend, where the political scion will highlight his family’s historic ties to Chavez, the legendary farmworker organizer. Robert Kennedy Sr.’s prominent support of Chavez and his cause forged an enduring bond with Latinos in California. The younger Kennedy is touting that history, with his campaign noting in a press release Thursday that he had been a pallbearer at Chavez’s funeral. The event will serve as the launch for a “Viva Kennedy 24” campaign aimed at Latino voters, which includes a Spanish-language website.   A message from the Financial Services Forum:     AROUND THE WORLD French President Emmanuel Macron waves to reporters as he waits for Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani at the Elysee Palace in Paris, Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024. | Thibault Camus/AP CONTINENTAL DRIFT — French President Emmanuel Macron’s party is forging a fresh alliance on the European stage in a bid to unite the EU’s liberal forces once and for all, reports POLITICO Europe. New Europeans, founded this month as an association under French law, will bring together Macron’s Renaissance party and other French, Romanian, Slovenian, Polish and Danish parties. Its 22 MEP members see it as a first step to bringing all liberal forces together under one roof after the election. Macron’s French party Renaissance has neither joined nor created a European Union-level party since it first sent MEPs to the European Parliament in 2019 — and New Europeans is not a political party either. However, its members see it as a first step to creating one. FARM PROTEST — The French Senate on Thursday voted against ratifying the EU-Canada trade deal (CETA) as farmers continue their protests . The vote had been put on the agenda by communist senators in a bid to kill the trade pact, something they have been trying to do for years. Right-wing senators from Les Républicains also voted against the agreement. In a rebuke to President Emmanuel Macron, an overwhelming majority rejected CETA, with 243 senators voting to kill the deal and only 26 to save it after a day-long parliamentary debate. $11.5 million The amount Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign had in the bank at the end of February , just days before the former U.N. ambassador dropped out of the Republican primary, according to a report filed with the Federal Election Commission. RADAR SWEEP STORMY WEATHER — Accurate information about future weather is often vital. Pilots and sailors need accurate forecasts to carry people across oceans safely, grid operators rely on them for heating and cooling demand and to know how much energy they’ll get from wind and solar farms, farmers need them for agricultural management. The right information can also save lives by giving early warnings of extreme storms, heat waves, and disasters. Hannah Ritchie does a deep dive into the data behind how weather forecasts have become much more accurate in recent decades for the non-profit Our World in Data.   Easily connect with the right N.Y. State influencers and foster the right relationships to champion your policy priorities. POLITICO Pro. Inside New York. Learn more .     PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1930: Members of the Bureau of Prohibition, known to the public as "Dry Agents," seized 7,000 barrels of beer in a raid in California. | AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   A message from the Financial Services Forum: The new capital regulations also mean some foreign businesses will be able to borrow at lower costs—putting U.S. companies at a disadvantage. Business and manufacturing groups, state and local elected officials, affordable housing advocates, clean energy proponents, civil rights organizations, and individuals across the country have raised significant concerns with the proposal. It's time to scrap Basel III Endgame and start over. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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