 | BY CHARLIE MAHTESIAN | | 
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign rally at the University of South Carolina, Aiken on Feb. 5, 2024. | Brandon Bell/Getty Images | ROUGH ROAD AHEAD — There’s no way around it. Nikki Haley’s defeat in Tuesday’s Nevada Republican primary was a bad look for her longshot campaign. Not only did she fail to win, she lost by a humbling 2-to-1 margin to the ballot designation “None of these candidates.” The Nevada primary was meaningless in every way. No delegates were at stake. Turnout was abysmal. Haley made no effort to win the state at all. Donald Trump’s name wasn’t even on the ballot. Still, it served as a reminder of the hard ceiling the former U.N. ambassador is up against in state after state. According to entrance and exit polls, Haley won just 15 percent of self-identified Republicans in Iowa, and just 25 percent in New Hampshire in a head-to-head matchup with the former president. In Nevada — where Tuesday’s primary was so irrelevant no one bothered to conduct exit polling — Haley managed just 31 percent in a contest where only registered Republicans could vote. It’s a very small sample, but it speaks clearly about the party’s thinking: From the Northeast to the Midwest to the Mountain West, Haley has been unable to win more than about a third of the party base. The map ahead doesn’t offer much more hope. On Thursday, Nevada will hold another contest — state GOP-sanctioned caucuses that were essentially engineered for a Trump victory. Since Haley’s name will not even appear on caucus ballots, Trump will clean house with delegates. In a best case scenario, Haley could pull off a surprise in the U.S. Virgin Islands caucuses, which also take place Thursday. But then comes South Carolina, her home state where she continues to trail Trump by wide margins in the polls. Haley’s campaign vows it will continue on through Super Tuesday on March 5, even if it suffers a defeat in South Carolina on Feb. 24. And if that’s the case, the results in two big upcoming states will provide an even fuller picture of how the contemporary GOP thinks. The first is Michigan on Feb. 27. The Trump era has been rough on the once-proud Michigan Republican Party, including a post-2020 descent into election-denialism madness that continues to consume the party. (If you haven’t been following, just Google “dumpster fire” or “chaos” and “Michigan Republican Party”). Much of the trouble can be traced to forces unleashed by Trump. The upcoming primary offers GOP voters an unparalleled opportunity to weigh in on the dysfunction and perhaps assign blame. The other place to watch is California, where the Republican Party is so anemic that two whole generations of its voters have never known a two-party state (The Schwarzenegger interregnum doesn’t count). It is Super Tuesday’s biggest prize, offering the largest cache of delegates of any state. Trump has been slaughtered there twice in the general election — and will likely lose there again by a landslide margin this year, threatening down-ballot GOP candidates up and down the state. Whatever her flaws, Haley — who has a rally scheduled in Los Angeles tonight — would almost certainly be a stronger candidate at the top of the ticket in California. Whether the GOP base cares is a different story. The most recent poll out of the Golden State shows him with a nearly 40 percentage point advantage. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie .
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| | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM , get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | — Senate Republicans officially block foreign aid bill with border changes: Senate Republicans today blocked a package that included aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and provisions to beef up border security , a long-coming conclusion to tortuous bipartisan negotiations. The bill failed to advance 49-50, falling short of the 60-vote threshold. The defeat officially ends the unsuccessful talks to shore up border protections that went on for four months. — Jeffries open ‘in principle’ to national security-only package if Senate can pass: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said he’s open “in principle” to a national-security-only aid package if the Senate is able to pass one, while stressing he still wants to review the details. “We have to move forward in a comprehensive way to address our national security issues,” he said at a weekly press conference today. Jeffries added that “several Republicans who are not in leadership” have expressed an openness toward working with House Democrats on “a comprehensive national security package” with funds for Israel, Ukraine and allies in the Indo-Pacific like Taiwan, as well as assistance for Palestinians. — U.S. drone strike kills senior Iran-backed militia leader in Baghdad: The U.S. military killed a senior leader of an Iran-backed militia group responsible for dozens of recent attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria, the Pentagon announced today. The drone strike on the Kataib Hezbollah leader in eastern Baghdad was part of the Biden administration’s multi-phase retaliation for a Jan. 28 drone strike on a small outpost in Jordan, Tower 22, which killed three U.S. soldiers and injured dozens more, according to the Pentagon.
| | MEET AND GREET — When the Supreme Court holds arguments Thursday on Donald Trump’s eligibility to be president, the justices won’t be hearing from members of Washington, D.C.’s elite circle of Supreme Court specialists. Instead, the three lawyers presenting the case are all from outside the Beltway and have little experience at the high court’s lectern. Here’s what to know about the three advocates who will present what may be the most important election case since Bush v. Gore . DUTY CALLS — Norma Anderson — the Anderson in the Trump v. Anderson case that the Supreme Court will hear on Thursday — is taking on Trump over whether he is eligible to serve as president after his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. Anderson, a lifelong Republican who rose through the state party to become one of the top GOP lawmakers in Colorado, told POLITICO she immediately agreed to participate when recruited by an attorney working with the liberal government watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. Read POLITICO’s full profile of Anderson here . And for further coverage of the blockbuster Supreme Court hearing Thursday, make sure to check out POLITICO’s liveblog , which will launch at 9:00 AM and update throughout the day.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, takes a seat before his meeting with France's Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne, right, in Jerusalem Monday, Feb. 5, 2024. | Pool photo by Gil Cohen-Magen | FIGHTING WORDS — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today rejected Hamas’ terms for a cease-fire and hostage-release agreement , calling them “delusional” and leveling harsh criticism of any arrangement that leaves the militant group in full or partial control of Gaza after the war. He vowed to press ahead with Israel’s war against Hamas, now in its fifth month, until achieving “absolute victory,” reports The Associated Press. Netanyahu made the comments shortly after meeting the visiting U.S. secretary of state, Antony Blinken, who has been traveling the region in hopes of securing a cease-fire agreement. “Surrendering to Hamas’ delusional demands that we heard now not only won’t lead to freeing the captives, it will just invite another massacre,” Netanyahu said in a nationally televised evening news conference. SHOT ON GOAL — France is trying to kill European football’s Super League once and for all, POLITICO EU reports. France has rallied European Union support for a joint statement from member countries, which would look to ensure a “link between annual performance in domestic competitions and all European competitions,” according to a draft seen by POLITICO. The statement has been signed by all EU members apart from Spain. French President Emmanuel Macron’s government is now urging the European Commission to draft legislation that solidifies that link. The language connecting domestic performance and international qualification in the French memo goes further than any previous EU statements, which have never before targeted the Super League so explicitly. Put simply, it would mean: UEFA’s Champions League, in; A22’s Super League, out. A22 Sports Management, the promoter company behind the Super League, has been attempting to resurrect their project — which first launched before instantly collapsing in April 2021 — since a Court of Justice of the EU ruling in December last year cracked open a door for their plans.
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| | | THE DO NOTHING CAUCUS — The Dutch have a specific word for doing absolutely nothing: niksen. And the concept, the art of doing nothing according to some of its practitioners, is taking off. It’s sometimes hard to define, but the idea is making doing nothing a purposeful act : instead of filling every inch of your free and alone time with watching TV or listening to music or reading or cooking, you decide to do nothing, crucially with no expectation of an outcome. Niksen’s biggest advocates suggest that it can be a great stress relief. Part of the reason why is that rather than other popular stress relief strategies, it’s not promising a silver bullet of change. Rather, the idea is that you take some time to do nothing, and see where that takes you, preferably without expectations. For The Guardian, Viv Groskop writes about the phenomenon and speaks with Olga Mecking, the author of Niksen: Embracing the Dutch Art of Doing Nothing.
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On this date in 1968: The Olympic Flag is carried by French Alpine troops during a procession at the opening ceremony of the 1968 Winter Olympics in Grenoble, France. | AP | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here . | |
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