Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: The MassGOP’s power struggle isn’t over

Tuesday, February 6, 2024

POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: The MassGOP’s power struggle isn’t over

MASSGOP MACHINATIONS — Amy Carnevale’s Republican renaissance is about to hit some resistance.

Just over a year after she narrowly wrested power of the state GOP away from Jim Lyons, Carnevale is at risk of losing control if next month’s Republican State Committee elections don’t go her way.

All 80 committee seats are up for grabs when voters head to the polls for the state’s Super Tuesday presidential primary on March 5. And the dynamics have changed since Carnevale beat Lyons by three votes last January. Several of her backers — and several of her opponents — aren’t seeking reelection. And while there is a slate of pro-Carnevale candidates, others are trying to win enough seats to force a chair election and knock her out.

Carnevale’s term isn’t up until next January. But there’s a loophole in the party’s rules that her opponents could leverage to get her out sooner. Committee members elected in March will be tasked with re-ratifying Carnevale as chair when they meet for the first time in April. If they don’t, the post would technically be vacant, and they would have to hold an election for chair.

That’s a lot of hypotheticals. But it’s the reality hanging over the state committee elections, where a group is already spending hundreds of dollars on Facebook ads boosting Lyons’ allies who are in the running. It remains to be seen who Carnevale's opponents would put up against her for chair, though the usual names are being bandied about (Lyons' allies say it won't be him; he didn't return our call.).

Amy Carnevale, right, took over for Jim Lyons, left, as chair of the MassGOP last January. | Lisa Kashinsky/POLITICO

At stake isn’t just Carnevale’s title, but the progress toward renewed relevancy the party has made under her tenure. In a memo Monday, Carnevale said the MassGOP had raised roughly $770,000 since she took over as chair (in part through the fees it charged GOP presidential candidates for ballot access). And it's paid down roughly $200,000 in debt.

Carnevale is returning the party’s headquarters to Boston to be closer to the action on Beacon Hill. And the GOP is on track to win its second special legislative election in a row, with the victor of today’s Republican primary for the 6th Worcester House seat all-but guaranteed to be the district’s next representative without a Democrat on the ballot.

The party still has a cash-flow problem — one that the pricey move back to Boston won't help. (The party’s rent is about to rise $2,200 to $5,900. ) And it remains tied up in a handful of lawsuits, including one Lyons filed in August alongside more than 20 current state committee members over the party's decision to toss an earlier suit he brought against its treasurer, Pat Crowley.

Carnevale dismissed that lawsuit as “frivolous .” She told Playbook she’s “just anxious to fully focus on the future” and that she’s “willing to work with anybody who wants to help the Republican Party” do that.

But there are two sides to every story. Republican activists who boosted Carnevale to power last year accused Lyons and his crew of taking the party down a hard-right, pro-Donald Trump path that cost the GOP up and down the ballot (as well as at the bank).

Carnevale’s detractors argue, however, that she’s sowing her own divisions by leaning on some of the old guard who ran the party under former Gov. Charlie Baker. And they say she and her allies are forsaking more conservative Republican values that, while electorally unpopular in this liberal state, still energize a chunk of the activist base.

“I want this to be a big-tent party. But the problem is the people who control it don’t want us,” said Todd Taylor, a Lyons ally and conservative Chelsea city councilor who’s running for another term on the Republican State Committee against John Olds, a Carnevale supporter who managed former state Rep. Lenny Mirra’s last campaign.

“The Republican base in Massachusetts is conservative and people are fed up with establishment people," Taylor said. "So we may be seeing a whole new slate of people [on the state committee].”

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. Also on the ballot this Super Tuesday: Democratic State Committee seats. Tell us the tea on those races: lkashinsky@politico.com and kgarrity@politico.com .

TODAY — Gov. Maura Healey has no public events. Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll is currently riding the Commuter Rail from Lynn to North Station to celebrate restored service in the North Shore city. Boston Mayor Michelle Wu kicks off the city’s Black History Month celebrations at 12:15 p.m. at City Hall.

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DATELINE BEACON HILL

STILL BEHIND BENCHMARK — The state’s revenue collections fell short of projections for the seventh straight month, Gov. Maura Healey ’s number crunchers reported Monday.

January tax collections totaled just under $3.6 billion — 6.9 percent, or $268 million, less than what was collected last January, and 6.8 percent, or $263 million, below benchmark. Year-to-date revenues are running 1 percent, or $212 million, behind collections in the same period of the last fiscal year. And they're 1.2 percent, or $263 million, less than the benchmark Healey’s administration set for this point in the fiscal year 2024 calendar.

The revenue report adds insult to injury: Healey has already slashed $375 million from the state’s budget and lowered revenue estimates through the end of this fiscal year by $1 billion. She’s also proposed cost-cutting measures in the budget her administration will pitch to lawmakers tomorrow (though the spending plan is still bigger than this year's).

CHASING FEDERAL FUNDS — Healey is dispatching Administration and Finance Secretary Matt Gorzkowicz and Federal Funds and Infrastructure Director Quentin Palfrey to help lobby the Legislature on behalf of her bill that would free up $750 million in interest earned from the state’s “rainy day” fund to compete for more than $17 billion in federal dollars.

PERENNIAL LOSER & EXTREMIST DIEHL had to criticize even though the majority of Massachusetts voters support additional GUN CONTROL LEGISLATION

— “Tarr criticized over support for gun control bill,” by Christian M. Wade, Gloucester Daily Times: “The state Senate’s GOP minority leader is pushing back against criticism from within his own party over his support for a Democratic-backed gun control bill. ... In a statement, he noted that the Senate bill was a ‘narrower and reformed version’ of a previously approved House bill and was supported by a police chiefs association.”

FROM THE DELEGATION

BORDER DEAL DRAMA — Rep. Jake Auchincloss is a “yes” on the bipartisan border deal before Congress that also includes billions of dollars of aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

But Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey remained mum on Monday about where they stand on the bill that’s slated for a procedural vote in their chamber tomorrow. Markey dragged Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson for calling the bill “dead on arrival.” But the senator, speaking to reporters at an unrelated event in Chicopee, didn’t say how he’d be voting on it.

The deal that Healey is urging Congress to pass is on the verge of falling apart amid GOP infighting in the Senate and fierce resistance from Republican House leadership, our Congress team reports. It’s also facing blowback from the Massachusetts Immigrant and Refugee Advocacy Coalition, which slammed the deal as “inhumane” and called on Congress and President Joe Biden to “reject efforts to slam the door on arrivals with no other place to go.”

GREEN NEW BIRTHDAY — It’s been five years since Markey introduced the bill that helped save his political career — the Green New Deal — with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). The two are holding a press conference at noon at the Capitol to mark the occasion and release a report detailing progress toward their climate goals. He’s also celebrating tonight at a “birthday party” hosted by the Green New Deal Network .

— “Sens. Warren, Markey press for more disaster relief for farmers hit by flooding,” by John L. Micek, MassLive.

— “Rep. McGovern, lawmakers call on Biden to tackle criminalization of homelessness,” by John L. Micek, MassLive.

FROM THE HUB

— “Rev. White-Hammond plans to leave Wu cabinet in April,” by Seth Daniel, Dorchester Reporter: “This week, [Rev. Mariama] White-Hammond told the Reporter that she’s planning to step aside from her position [as the city’s chief of Environment, Energy, and Open Space] to focus full-time on her role as lead pastor at Dorchester’s New Roots AME Church.”

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FROM THE 413

— “'It's insane.' How little white postcards are wreaking havoc with city and town clerks in Berkshire County and beyond,” by Jane Kaufman, The Berkshire Eagle: “No Massachusetts voter need leave the comfort of their home to apply for or cast a ballot in 2024 for a state or federal election, and voters are responding at a level that some county clerks are warning just isn't possible to keep up with. … This year, with a minimum of four elections, some city and town clerks are turning their attention to processing vote-by-mail applications and little else — all year long.”

WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD BE READING

— “Mayors in Mass. cities played key roles ending teachers strikes. So why was Newton’s Fuller absent from the bargaining table?,” by Deanna Pan, The Boston Globe: “Mayor Ruthanne Fuller was mostly absent from the tense and protracted contract negotiations between the Newton Teachers Association and School Committee. In fact, according to the NTA, she met with teachers at the bargaining table just once during the two-week saga, incensing many educators and community members who have threatened to take out their frustration at the ballot box.”

— “Andover considers cutting 36 school employees due to budget gap following teacher strike,” by Kristina Rex, WBZ: “Andover teachers went on strike for five days — three school days — back in November. Now, in its budget meetings, the school committee says there is a $2.7 million budget deficit, and one of the proposed fixes is to cut 36 full time school positions.”

— “Study says state faces growing teacher diversity challenge if action isn’t taken,” by Bhaamati Borkhetaria, CommonWealth Beacon.

— “Massachusetts hospitals experiencing capacity crunch,” by Sharman Sacchetti, WCVB: “Major swaths of the Massachusetts health care system are now considered ‘high risk,’ with the crisis largely fueled by a major backlog of patients waiting to be discharged from hospitals, the Massachusetts Health and Hospital Association said Monday.”

— “2024 Election: voters don’t want Trump, Biden rematch UMass Amherst poll says,” by Ryan Mancini, MassLive.

HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH

SCHOOL’S OUT FOR SNOW — Meet the man announcing Worcester’s school closings .

REBRAND — Gillette Stadium is apparently getting a new name when it plays host to the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

TRANSITIONS — Jeffrey T. Collins and Aaron A. Spacone have been named a partner at Morgan, Brown & Joy.

— Mark Lund joins Regan Communications Group as COO.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to Webster state Rep. Joseph McKenna, Neri Oxman and Pamela Esler.

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