Thursday, January 11, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: What happened to Biden’s big trade deal?

 

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BY GAVIN BADE

Presented by

The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network

BREAKING NEWS — Chris Christie is ending his longshot presidential campaign . He suspended his campaign late this afternoon in a move that could be a major boost to Nikki Haley’s chances in New Hampshire. The former New Jersey governor, a vocal critic of frontrunner Donald Trump, had staked his campaign on the first primary state. But his path narrowed as Haley started surging in polls on the heels of several strong debate performances and with the backing of popular GOP Gov. Chris Sununu, who also opposes Trump.

People walk outside the Moscone Center during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings on Nov. 11, 2023 in San Francisco, Calif.

People walk outside the Moscone Center during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings on Nov. 11, 2023 in San Francisco, Calif. | Kent Nishimur/Getty Images

ANATOMY OF A MURDER — Who killed President Joe Biden’s signature trade initiative?

The administration agrees the call was coming from inside the house — but which room remains a point of contention.

To recap: Biden’s team planned to unveil its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework — a deal with 13 other nations — at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in November. But in the final hours of talks, Biden’s team walked away from the trade portion of the pact under pressure from lawmakers in their own party, worried Republicans could use the deal against them in 2024.

The decision marked a major defeat for the president’s surprisingly ambitious global trade agenda. But who, exactly, pulled the plug remains unclear.

The U.S. Trade Representative’s office was ostensibly responsible for negotiating the trade portions of the deal. But three officials in and around that agency say the final call to jettison the trade provisions came from the National Security Council at the White House, which got cold feet after Midwestern lawmakers like Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisc.) said they would not support the deal.

While USTR was tasked with negotiating the trade elements of the deal, the entire idea for the Indo-Pacific pact was a brainchild of the NSC led by National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, they added. So when it became clear that negotiators could not strike a deal with the labor and environmental protections that Biden prioritized, it was Sullivan’s team that made the final call.

Not so, says the White House. The decision to push off the IPEF trade talks was a “joint decision” involving NSC and USTR, said a senior administration official involved in the talks. And focusing on that decision point, the official added, misses the progress that the administration was able to make on other areas of the Indo-Pacific pact — the supply chain, sustainability and anti-corruption agreements that the Commerce Department negotiated.

“It was a collective effort,” the official said, “to figure out what we are able to actually harvest [in November], and then what we are going to continue working on.”

Whoever ultimately pulled the plug, the motivation for their decision is clear: the U.S. was not able to secure commitments from member nations to raise labor and environmental standards that Biden hoped would help make American workers more competitive with foreign competition, while also raising living standards abroad.

Without those, the Midwestern Democrats feared Biden’s deal would actually be less stringent than the NAFTA renegotiation that President Trump signed in 2020, which includes binding labor and environmental standards that Biden’s USTR has eagerly enforced. The senators didn’t want to try to explain all that to Rust Belt voters this fall.

“Even if their [Indo-Pacific] framework wasn’t really a retreat on the progress we’ve made … the perception would be there,” Baldwin told POLITICO after pressing Biden to drop the trade deal.

Exactly which nations objected to the labor and environmental deals is unclear, and no country would admit to holding up the deal in November. But to U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, the problem wasn’t so much the foreign capitals, but the advice they got emanating from Washington.

“I think it might be the fancy consultants that they have hired in Washington advising them not to” agree to higher labor and environmental standards, Tai said just days after the deal fell apart. Those same corporate interests, she added, had been “kicking IPEF like a lonely dog in a back alley for the past year and a half.”

Whoever is responsible, Tai and her team are now left to pick up the pieces in 2024, trying to get the Indo-Pacific nations to come back to the table despite the rising electoral angst. If she can’t, regional partners say that China has been beating down their doors for new trade and investment opportunities. We’ve got more on that fallout in our latest edition of our series on the changing landscape of global trade .

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at gbade@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @GavinBade .

A message from The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network:

Congress: Support the highest possible increases for cancer research funding at the National Institutes of Health and National Cancer Institute to make time. Literally. More than 1.9 million people were diagnosed with cancer in 2023 alone. But by investing in the research of today, you’re helping prevent, detect, and treat many of the cancers of tomorrow, creating countless moments for patients and their loved ones in the process. Fight Cancer. Make Time.

 
WHAT'D I MISS?

— Conservatives take revenge for Johnson’s spending deal by halting action on House floor: Speaker Mike Johnson’s right flank ground the floor to a halt again today, this time amid conservative fury over a spending deal he cut with Senate Democrats . Thirteen House Republicans joined with Democrats to vote against starting debate on a trio of bills unrelated to the funding agreement, two of which are aimed at nixing Biden administration rules, a move that effectively freezes the floor. Additional votes today were immediately canceled. It’s the latest example of how House conservatives, largely in the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus, are trying to punish leadership — even if they aren’t willing to oust Johnson.

— Hunter Biden derails GOP vote to hold him in contempt: Hunter Biden made a short surprise appearance today at the House Oversight Committee’s meeting on whether to hold him in contempt of Congress, prompting some fireworks from Republicans. Both the Judiciary and Oversight Committees are expected to advance recommendations along party lines that Hunter Biden be held in contempt after he skipped a closed-door interview last month. The appearance from the president’s son set off some Republicans, with Rep. Nancy Mace (R-N.C.) saying: “I think he should be hauled off to jail right now.” Biden’s attorney, Abbe Lowell, said it was further evidence that Republicans were ignoring his attempts to cooperate by testifying at a public hearing.

— Migrant work permits now on the table in Senate border negotiations: Negotiators are weighing expediting the processing of work permits for migrants granted asylum as part of a potential border deal, according to five people familiar with the discussions. Local and state officials want work permit expansions included in negotiations as the migrant crisis affects more leaders across the country, straining city budgets. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) in November suggested that negotiators in both parties consider adding work visas to help fill open jobs with migrants who are initially barred from legally working after arriving in the U.S. Under current law, migrants are required to wait 150 days after applying for asylum before they can seek a work permit application, which takes at least 30 days to get approved. The entire process often takes significantly longer.

 

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NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

TV TROUBLES — Donald Trump blasted Fox News today for using a CNN poll that showed Nikki Haley closing the gap on the former president’s lead in New Hampshire.

“Why does FoxNews keep using a Fake CNN Poll (where I am still winning by a lot)?” Trump posted to Truth Social. Trump’s comments came only a few hours before he is scheduled to do a live town hall with the network for the first time in two years, while Trump skips a debate with Haley and Ron DeSantis.

DEBATE NIGHT — After spending much of the Republican presidential primary flanked by lower-polling rivals, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis will be alone on the debate stage Wednesday for the first time as they wage an increasingly contentious push to become the primary alternative to Donald Trump, reports the Associated Press.

The stakes are high for both Haley, the former U.N. ambassador, and DeSantis, the Florida governor. They hope that a strong debate performance in Iowa will lift their campaigns in the final days before Monday’s caucuses, where a strong showing could provide much-needed momentum as the campaign for the GOP presidential nomination intensifies. The moment is especially important for Haley, a politician long known for her disciplined approach to messaging. That reputation has been tested recently after a series of gaffes, including her failure to mention slavery as the root cause of the Civil War and a quip that New Hampshire voters will have a chance to “correct” the results that emerge from Iowa.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni gestures during a press conference in Rome on Nov. 11, 2022.

Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni gestures during a press conference in Rome on Nov. 11, 2022. | Alberto Pizzoli/AFP via Getty Images

FASCIST-FRIENDLY? — Anti-terror police are studying video footage of hundreds of people who are alleged to have performed mass fascist salutes during a memorial event in Rome, reports POLITICO EU.

The memorial on Sunday marked the anniversary of the deaths in 1978 of three far-right activists from the Youth Front, the young people’s wing of the post-war party formed by former fascists.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is under pressure to condemn the event, which was attended by members of her ruling Brothers of Italy party. But it is a sore point for Italy’s first female premier because she was herself a member of the Youth Front, and her party traces its roots back to the same former fascist group.

The outcry has revived memories of uglier times in Italian political life. Violence was widespread in Italy in the late 1970s during a period of bombings, assassinations and kidnappings by the far right as well as far-left groups, such as the Red Brigades.

Under post-war legislation, promoting fascism and its symbolism — including the straight-armed salute also known as the Roman salute — is punishable with up to 12 years in prison.

Video footage, which circulated on social media on Monday, showed a crowd raising their right arm multiple times in a unified straight-armed salute that recalls the fascist dictatorship of Benito Mussolini.

Opposition politicians in Italy demanded the government explain why the police didn’t intervene, called for stronger laws to prosecute support for fascism, and proposed that neo-fascist groups should be dissolved.

 

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NIGHTLY NUMBER

$1 million

The amount that Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) raised in the final quarter of 2023 for his challenge to President Joe Biden. The Biden campaign hasn’t announced their fundraising haul for the last quarter of 2023 yet, but Biden, the Democratic National Committee and their allied committees collected about $72 million in the second quarter and $71 million in the third quarter.

RADAR SWEEP

DYING LAND IN DEATH VALLEY — In Death Valley National Park, a village of indigenous people spent years fighting to keep the land they had lived on for centuries. Now, the 25-household village has a legal right to the land they fought for — but may not be able to stay due to climate change . As extreme heat dries up the land of the Timbisha Shoshone Village and impacts vegetation the indigenous people need to survive, climate change has left the village questioning whether to hold on to the land they fought to keep or find a new, more habitable land. In this story for The New Republic, Margaret Grebowicz chronicles an indigenous village’s battle against climate change in their native land.

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 1986: Former world heavyweight boxing champion Muhammad Ali embraces Coretta Scott King, widow of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., at a news conference in Atlanta, Ga., launching a celebration for the national Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

On this date in 1986: Former world heavyweight boxing champion Muhammad Ali embraces Coretta Scott King, widow of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., at a news conference in Atlanta, Ga., launching a celebration for the national Martin Luther King Jr. Day. | Ric Feld/AP

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When Congress prioritizes ending cancer as we know it, you literally make time for patients, loved ones, caregivers, and everybody else affected by 200 diseases known as cancer. By investing in the research of today, you’re helping prevent, detect, and treat many of the cancers of tomorrow, creating countless moments for cancer patients and their loved ones in the process.

Fight Cancer. Make Time.

 
 

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