Monday, January 22, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: New England’s primary

 



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BY MIA MCCARTHY

Presented by Steuben County Industrial Development Agency

Campaign signs for Republican presidential candidates former President Donald Trump and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley in Loudon, New Hampshire.

Campaign signs for Republican presidential candidates former President Donald Trump and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley in Loudon, New Hampshire. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

PRIMARY FRENEMIES — The first-in-the-nation primary is New Hampshire’s quadrennial time in the national spotlight, its cottage industry and its opportunity to have an outsized role in determining the next president.

What’s less appreciated is the role neighboring Massachusetts is playing in shaping Tuesday’s primary. From the electorate (filled with Massachusetts ex-pats) to the ads they are watching (nearly all of them purchased in the Boston media market) to the polls (The Boston Globe, Boston’s Suffolk University and NBC10 Boston are among those polling the race), there is a subtle Massachusetts imprint that gives the election a more regional feel than any of the other early state contests.

Many of those voting Tuesday will have Massachusetts ties — according to an October University of New Hampshire study , a quarter of all New Hampshire residents were born in Massachusetts. In 2022, over 23,000 people — 47% of everyone who moved to New Hampshire that year — moved across the border, making the Granite State the top destination for those leaving Massachusetts.

That doesn’t mean the two states have high regard for each other. Hinting at the longstanding rivalry between them, 32 percent of likely New Hampshire primary voters said in October that too many people are moving from Massachusetts to the Granite State. The upcoming race for governor is already highlighting the divide between New Hampshire and its more progressive neighbor. Republican Kelly Ayotte has blamed Massachusetts border cities Lawrence and Lowell for her state’s fentanyl problems; in her campaign announcement, she warned that “We are one election away from becoming Massachusetts in New Hampshire, and I’m not gonna let that happen.”

To reach voters in populous southern New Hampshire — the state doesn’t have its own media market — campaigns must purchase ads in the Boston media market. Republican campaigns spent over $38 million on ads in the Boston market from the start of 2023 through the primary, compared to just over $1 million spent in each of the other two markets (Burlington, Vermont- Plattsburgh, New York; and Portland-Auburn, Maine) that reach New Hampshire.

The proximity to New Hampshire — Manchester is just over an hour’s drive from Boston up Interstate 93 — has traditionally enabled Bay State pols and activists to stream over the border to campaign for their preferred candidates. Last weekend, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu joined Rep. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) in Manchester and Nashua to convince voters to write in President Joe Biden on Tuesday’s ballot. Democratic Gov. Maura Healey, who was raised in New Hampshire, has played a key role in the write-in campaign.

On the Republican side, former MassGOP Chair Jennifer Nassour, who co-chairs Massachusetts Women for Nikki Haley, told Nightly she has put about 3,000 miles on her car in four days traveling to New Hampshire the past week. She brought other Massachusetts Republicans with her to knock on doors in frigid weather. Those who couldn’t make the trek volunteered on the phones from their Massachusetts homes, Nassour told POLITICO .

The focus up north makes sense. For many in New England, the New Hampshire primary is often the only game in town — it’s a lot more dynamic than the primaries in deep blue Massachusetts or Vermont that get lost in the whirl of Super Tuesday.

That’s why you’ll also often find Massachusetts residents among the political tourists at campaign events across New Hampshire. At tonight’s Haley event in Salem, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky found three Massachusetts residents among the first seven people she interviewed.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at mmccarthy@politico.com on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @Reporter_Mia .

 

A message from Steuben County Industrial Development Agency:

President Biden, Buy America is not just policy, it’s real jobs in places like Hornell, part of Steuben County in upstate New York where we’re busy building America’s high-speed trains. We’re counting on your support to ensure that we retain hundreds of jobs and add new ones to build the new trainsets for Brightline West. Don’t allow a waiver to build trainsets overseas. Let’s build the trains and keep those jobs here in America.

 
WHAT'D I MISS?

— Burgum says he won’t seek third term as governor: A month after dropping out of the presidential race, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum has announced he won’t seek a third term as governor . Burgum, who repeatedly polled in the single digits while in the race for president, recently endorsed former President Donald Trump. The North Dakota governor dropped out of the race last month after operating on a mostly self-funded campaign, thanks to his prior career as a software entrepreneur.

— Trump’s defamation trial is postponed, complicating his possible testimony: Testimony in Donald Trump’s federal defamation trial was canceled today after a juror reported feeling ill , pushing the next possible trial day to coincide with Tuesday’s primary contest in New Hampshire. As a result, Trump lawyer Alina Habba asked U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan to delay Trump’s own testimony until Wednesday. “My client reminded me tomorrow is the New Hampshire primary and he needs to be in New Hampshire,” Habba said, with Trump, the Republican presidential frontrunner, seated alongside her. Habba said Trump had arrived in court today “planning to testify.”

— Murphy says border talks ‘largely done,’ signaling potential final phase: Bipartisan border talks are “largely done” and have advanced to the Senate Appropriations Committee — signaling talks are entering a potential final phase — according to lead Democratic negotiator Sen. Chris Murphy. “Our work is largely done,” Murphy (D-Conn.) said. “The conversation has really moved over to Appropriations. So, there’s no reason why we couldn’t begin consideration this week.” Murphy said the bill text is not yet finalized, but noted “we need to give people the ability to read and understand” the deal before a vote. He added that both caucuses have already been briefed “on the outlines of what we have agreed upon.” Senators will want time to review the bill and potentially propose amendments, but the process for that will ultimately be up to leadership.

 

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NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

HAMMERED HOME — President Joe Biden is hammering his message on reproductive freedom this week with executive actions, a new campaign ad and a campaign rally on the same day as the New Hampshire primary, reports POLITICO. The messaging and policy blitz marking what would have been the 51st anniversary of Roe v. Wade is part of broader election-year strategy to frame the 2024 race as a choice between Democrats who pledge to protect abortion and contraception and Republicans who have called for further restrictions.

NO TO NO LABELS — The chief strategist on Dean Phillips’ presidential campaign ruled out the idea he would run for president on a No Labels ticket should his current Democratic primary bid fail, reports POLITICO. “He’s not” running with No Labels, said Jeff Weaver at an event Phillips hosted this morning at the Nashua Country Club. “He’s not running outside the Democratic Party.” Weaver’s comments come less than a day after Phillips himself left the door open to being the presidential standard bearer for a third-party bid.

BALLOT BATTLES — The Massachusetts ballot law commission dismissed two 14th Amendment challenges seeking to bar Donald Trump from appearing on the state’s Super Tuesday presidential primary ballot today, citing lack of jurisdiction over the matter. POLITICO reports the challengers, led by liberal activist group Free Speech for People and prominent labor attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan, plan to appeal to the state’s highest court.

 

A message from Steuben County Industrial Development Agency:

In 2015 there were 250 train manufacturing jobs at Alstom’s plant in Hornell, NY. Today, thanks to strong Buy America provisions there are nearly 700 men and women building high-speed trains. Today the Biden-Harris administration has a decision – keep supporting Buy America and creating more jobs in upstate New York and small towns across the country, or allow trains for Brightline West to be made in Germany. The choice should be clear. Buy America works for places like Steuben County but only when it is upheld consistently. Steuben County workers stand ready to build high-quality high-speed trains for Brightline West and deliver them in an ambitious timeframe to meet the goals of Brightline West and the nation. Let’s build America’s high-speed trains in America, not overseas.

 
AROUND THE WORLD

Houthi fighters brandish their weapons during an anti-Israel and anti-U.S. rally in Yemen's capital Sanaa.

Houthi fighters brandish their weapons during an anti-Israel and anti-U.S. rally in Yemen's capital Sanaa today. | Mohammed Huwais/AFP via Getty Images

MORE AIRSTRIKES — The U.S. and U.K. conducted large-scale air and missile strikes on Houthi rebel facilities across Yemen today, according to a U.S. and British official, reports POLITICO. The airstrikes are a step up in operations against the militant group as it vows to continue attacking ships in the Red Sea.

The U.S. military has launched multiple rounds of preemptive strikes against Houthi anti-ship missile sites that were preparing to fire against international shipping over the past week. But those strikes have failed to deter the militants from continuing to attack commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

This is the second time U.S. and U.K. forces have conducted joint air and missile strikes on the Houthis in Yemen since the group began attacking international shipping in November. The two militaries, with support from Australia, the Netherlands, Canada and Bahrain launched strikes for the first time on Jan. 11, after the Houthis ignored weeks of warnings by Washington and its allies to stop the attacks.

Since then, the U.S. has hit Houthi targets a half-dozen times on its own, but those strikes were conducted against what the Pentagon has characterized as an “imminent” threat and were smaller in scale.

President Joe Biden and his top aides have repeatedly said strikes on Houthi targets alone won’t stop the Iran-backed militants from threatening commercial ships in the Middle East.

Administration officials say it could take weeks, maybe months, to apply the necessary military, economic and diplomatic pressure to force the Houthis to change course.

FARMED OUT — French farmers will protest “for as long as necessary,” the leader of the biggest farming union warned today, as rural discontent hits the campaign agenda ahead of June’s European election, reports POLITICO EU.

New French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and far-right leader Jordan Bardella engaged in a remote standoff over the weekend, both trying to address farmers’ concerns with Bardella taking aim at President Emmanuel Macron’s track record while Attal tried to appear understanding of the hardships the sector faces. Bardella, a 28-year-old MEP, leads Marine Le Pen’s National Rally’s list for the EU election. Attal, 34, was appointed prime minister earlier this month in a direct response to Bardella’s momentum and is set to play a key role in the European race.

The protesting farmers, who are blocking highways to make themselves heard, are airing grievances about taxes on tractor fuel, access to water and overregulation. Several hundreds have taken part, setting up checkpoints on highways near the city of Toulouse. The windows of a local government building in the nearby city of Carcassonne were blown out by an explosion with two graffiti tags from a winemaker collective left at the scene of the incident.

The French protests echo demonstrations across Europe in recent weeks, in particular in Germany, Poland and Romania. Though local grievances vary, the root cause of these protests lies in EU policy, said Arnaud Rousseau, president of France’s main FNSEA farmers’ union. Rousseau, in a radio interview, blasted “incomprehensible European policy” and said the European Commission’s Farm to Fork strategy to make farming greener was hurting economic growth in the agricultural sector.

 

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NIGHTLY NUMBER

322,000

The predicted Republican voter turnout in Tuesday’s New Hampshire’s presidential primary, according to the secretary of state’s office . Democratic turnout is expected to be 88,000 voters.

RADAR SWEEP

GET IN, WE’RE GOING SHOPPING — American malls look like they’re in the midst of a death spiral — unless Gen-Z can save them . The idea runs somewhat contrary to popular conceptions of a phone-addicted generation that hangs out less with their peers than ever before. But research shows that Gen-Z is fueling a post-pandemic rebound for malls. Experts think this has to do with the generation’s need for instant gratification: Gen-Z doesn’t want to order something online and have it show up even a day later, they’d rather get a product now. Ironically, the ability to instantly download a tv show may be connected to the rise in interest in brick-and-mortar stores, where everything is right there for immediate consumption. Ashley Ahn reports for the Los Angeles Times.

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 1973: The U.S. Supreme Court decides Roe v. Wade. Pictured are an estimated 5,000 people marching around the Minnesota Capitol building in St. Paul protesting the decision, which ruled against state laws that criminalize abortion.

On this date in 1973: The U.S. Supreme Court decides Roe v. Wade. Pictured are an estimated 5,000 people marching around the Minnesota Capitol building in St. Paul protesting the decision, which ruled against state laws that criminalize abortion. | AP

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