SINGLE ISSUE TOKER — The president has seen an alarming erosion in support among young voters in recent months, with a spate of national and state polls showing him with a narrow lead — or even running behind — Donald Trump with that demographic. Weed could be the unlikely way back into their hearts for Joe Biden. It’s no small matter for Democrats because young voters are a crucial part of any winning coalition: Biden crushed Trump by 24 points among voters under the age of 30 in 2020, according to exit polls . A recent national poll shows that young voters overwhelmingly support Biden’s moves to loosen federal marijuana restrictions. A whopping 65 percent of 18- to 25-year-old likely voters expressed support for the administration’s recent recommendation to move marijuana to a less stringent classification under federal law, compared to just 14 percent who indicated opposition. Veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, whose firm conducted the survey, argues that the issue could help woo back young voters who have grown disaffected with Biden, particularly over his unwavering support for Israel since the outbreak of the Gaza war. “What should be a base group has ended up … kind of a swing group,” said Lake, who worked on Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign, in an interview. “They’re the most susceptible to looking at a third party. They’re the biggest group of people who don’t like either candidate. And so you’ve got a group of swing voters who are just incredibly supportive and intense on this issue.” In August, the Food and Drug Administration — following a scientific review ordered by Biden — recommended moving marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act. While marijuana would remain illegal under federal law if that change is enacted, it would significantly loosen restrictions, including making it easier to conduct research and easing federal tax burdens for cannabis companies. No final decision has been made — the Drug Enforcement Administration will have the ultimate say on reclassifying marijuana, and there’s no deadline for when the agency will make that call. But if that recommendation is implemented, as is widely expected, it would mark the biggest change in federal drug policy in more than half a century. The rest of the country isn’t waiting for the federal government when it comes to weed legalization. Two dozen states — representing more than half of the country’s population — have legalized possession for anyone at least 21 years old, while 38 states have established medical marijuana programs. An eye-popping 70 percent of Americans support marijuana legalization, the highest level ever recorded, according to the latest Gallup poll on the issue. “The voters are way, way ahead of where the politicians are at,” Lake said. “This is just completely non-controversial to them.” Biden is a highly unlikely figure to potentially reap the electoral benefits of loosening weed restrictions. The octogenarian spent decades in Congress voting in favor of tough penalties for drug offenses, and his own son has notoriously struggled with substance abuse problems. But Biden has said repeatedly — both in the 2020 campaign, and since taking office — that no one should be in prison for using marijuana. And he’s issued two rounds of pardons for people convicted of marijuana-related offenses. Donald Trump’s position on marijuana remains somewhat hazy. His administration rescinded Obama-era guidance from the Justice Department instructing federal prosecutors not to target people engaging in state-legal cannabis activities, but there was no ensuing federal crackdown on weed scofflaws. Trump did not take any steps to change the classification of the drug under federal law while in office. While weed is hardly a topline issue for voters of any age or political persuasion, Lake believes it could prove to be a potent wildcard in what’s expected to be an excruciatingly close presidential contest. “It’s good for mobilization and for persuasion. So if you want to get young voters on your side, this is a great issue. If you want to get young voters to turn out, it’s a great issue,” Lake said. “The clarity, the emotion behind it, gives it an outsized saliency.” The poll was commissioned by the Coalition for Cannabis Scheduling Reform , which includes industry and advocacy groups that support loosening weed restrictions. While it was conducted in early October, Lake doesn’t believe anything has changed since then that would significantly alter public perceptions on cannabis policy. “It’s probably gotten even more important in the ensuing three months because of the impact of the war in Gaza on attitudes of young people,” she said. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at pdemko@politico.com on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PaulDemko .
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