Monday, February 6, 2023

FOCUS: Gen. Ben Hodges | Ukraine Should—and, Properly Supported, Can—Seize Crimea, Argues Ben Hodges

 

 

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Gen. Ben Hodges. (photo: Odessa Journal)
FOCUS: Gen. Ben Hodges | Ukraine Should—and, Properly Supported, Can—Seize Crimea, Argues Ben Hodges
Gen. Ben Hodges, The Economist
Hodges writes: "It is almost one year since Russian troops invaded Ukraine. In that time thousands of innocent civilians, as well as soldiers from both sides, have been killed." 

A retired American general writes as part of a series debating the wisdom of peace negotiations

IT IS ALMOST one year since Russian troops invaded Ukraine. In that time thousands of innocent civilians, as well as soldiers from both sides, have been killed. Towns and cities have crumbled under Russian strikes. The devastation has led some to call for Ukraine to sit down with Russia and negotiate peace. Yet the morale of Ukraine’s armed forces is as strong as ever, and its soldiers have defended their homeland more successfully than most thought possible. It would be a huge mistake for the country to enter into peace talks with Russia now.

There are many reasons why negotiating with Russia would be foolish. If this war is about more than just Ukraine, and instead about the preservation of the international rules-based order and the prevention of Russian aggression against Europe, then it should be unacceptable for Russia to be rewarded for its invasion. Yet any peace deal which granted it territory would do just that. And talks have been tried before. The Minsk agreements, signed after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, led to a frozen conflict which Vladimir Putin thawed at a moment of his choosing.

The most important reason why Ukraine should not negotiate with Russia is that it may now have a chance to win back Crimea. It is the most crucial piece of territory Russia seized in 2014 and it will prove the decisive terrain of this war, too. Ukrainians know that as long as Russia retains Crimea they are more vulnerable to future attacks than before Russia seized it. And while Russia has it, Ukraine cannot rebuild its economy. That is because the Russians are able to interfere with activity in all of Ukraine’s ports from Crimea, disrupt shipping from places such as Odessa and block access to the Sea of Azov.

Crimea is also useful to Russia itself. It is home to the Black Sea Fleet, a launchpad for drones and other weapons, a logistics hub and a trading port for Russian merchant shipping. Because Crimea is decisive, and because it is becoming clearer that Ukrainian forces can liberate Crimea, Ukraine must not negotiate now. Russia would never agree to trade Crimea away.

Instead Ukraine should fight to liberate Crimea. First, it should isolate Crimea with a combination of long-range precision weapons and armoured forces. Isolation requires disrupting and then severing the only two land lines of communication that connect Crimea to Russia: the Kerch Bridge and the land bridge from Rostov in Russia through Mariupol and Melitopol in Ukraine and into Crimea. Second, it should strike critical targets on the Crimean peninsula for months until it becomes untenable for Russian air, land and naval forces to remain stationed there. Precision strikes on Sevastopol, Dzhankoi and Saky will render these very vulnerable naval bases, logistics sites and airbases unusable for Russian forces. This, rather than a conventional frontal attack against all Russian defences in the region, will compel Russian forces to leave Crimea.

Certain officials in the Pentagon question whether Ukraine can eject Russia from Crimea. But I believe that the calibre of Ukraine’s leadership and the will of its armed forces mean that it has a very real chance of success, assuming we, the West, give Ukraine the specific capabilities it needs. So let’s get going. Give Ukraine weapons such as the Army Tactical Missile System, which has a range of 300km (186 miles), and Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs, with a range of 150km. If the West moves quickly, Ukraine could liberate Crimea by the end of August. If not, Crimea will remain a sanctuary for Russian supplies and weaponry.

Some argue that the Kremlin has a “red line” regarding Crimea and that it is prepared to fight to hold on to it at all costs, including deploying a nuclear weapon if it appeared likely to lose it. Yes, the nuclear threat from the Kremlin must be taken seriously—Russia has thousands of nuclear warheads and it clearly does not care how many innocent people are killed in this war. But I think it is very unlikely it would deploy a nuclear weapon of any type, even for Crimea.

The Kremlin believes Washington’s warning of “catastrophic consequences” should Mr Putin use a nuclear weapon. It also knows that using such a weapon actually gives it no battlefield advantage, for two reasons. First, there is no large concentration of Ukrainian troops in a single place, so using one nuke would hardly wipe out Ukraine’s soldiers. Second, Russia has no large, mobile exploitation force suitably trained and equipped to operate in a contaminated area. The Chinese and others have also made it clear to the Kremlin that they object to Russia using a nuclear weapon. In fact, Russia’s nuclear weapons are most effective when it doesn’t actually use them.

Rather than push Ukraine’s leadership towards the negotiating table, America and other Western nations should support Ukraine to win in Crimea. We’ve learned from this past year that Ukranian precision can defeat Russian heft with appropriate weaponry and smart timing. The West should help with both.


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Major Earthquakes Hit Turkey, Syria: Who Is Stepping Up to Help?A child waits for help at Bab al-Hawa. (photo: Aaref Watad/AFP/Getty Images)

Major Earthquakes Hit Turkey, Syria: Who Is Stepping Up to Help?
Al Jazeera
Excerpt: "Dozens of countries and organizations have offered to assist rescue efforts in southeastern Turkey and northwestern Syria after an earthquake disaster killed more than 2,300 people."  


Powerful earthquakes and aftershocks have caused widespread devastation in Turkey and Syria.


Dozens of countries and organisations have offered to assist rescue efforts in southeastern Turkey and northwestern Syria after an earthquake disaster killed more than 2,300 people.

Below is a list of the international mobilisation and offers of assistance since the quake in the early hours of Monday. It will be updated accordingly.

China

China is willing to provide humanitarian emergency aid to earthquake-struck Turkey and Syria, the State Council’s foreign aid agency said.

China expressed condolences and concern for the loss of life and property, and is in communications with both Turkey and Syria, a spokesperson from China International Development Cooperation Agency said.

European Union

Ten search-and-rescue teams from eight European Union countries have been mobilised to help first responders in Turkey, the European Commission said in a statement.

The units come from Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, France, Greece, the Netherlands, Poland and Romania. Italy and Hungary have also offered to send teams to Turkey, the Commission wrote.

Germany

Germany’s Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW) “can set up camps to provide shelter as well as water treatment units”, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said.

The THW agency is also preparing generators, tents and blankets.

Berlin will also increase its assistance to charities such as Malteser International providing humanitarian aid in northwest Syria by $1.1m, she said.

Greece

Kyriakos Mitsotakis, prime minister of Greece, offered condolences and support to Turkey, saying his country was mobilising its resources and will assist immediately.

Despite decades of animosity and recent tension over migration and hydrocarbon exploration, Greece and Turkey have a long history of helping each other in earthquakes.

India

The Indian government said two teams from its National Disaster Response Force comprising 100 personnel with specially trained canine squads and equipment were ready to be flown to the disaster area for search-and-rescue operations.

Medical teams were also being readied, and relief material was being sent in coordination with the Turkish authorities.

Iran

Foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani expressed “condolences and deep sympathy” to the quake-hit countries and expressed readiness to help the victims.

Hailing Iran’s “good relationship” with both countries, Kanaani said, “If there is a need for the presence of relief and health institutions of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the earthquake-affected areas, we will fulfil our moral responsibility.”

He described the offer of help as a “moral, human and Islamic responsibility”.

Italy

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said Italy’s Civil Protection was standing by to contribute support and provide first aid.

Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had given the go-ahead to send aid to earthquake-hit Syria, after “receiving a request” through diplomatic channels as the neighbours have no official relations.

Israel “received a request from a diplomatic source for humanitarian aid to Syria, and I approved it”, Netanyahu told lawmakers from his Likud party, adding the aid would be sent soon.

But a Syrian official told reporters Damascus “ridiculed and denied the allegations” that it requested aid from Israel. “How can Syria ask for help from an entity that has killed … Syrians for decades?” said the official.

NATO

Voicing full solidarity with Turkey, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said on Twitter: “I am in touch with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, and NATO Allies are mobilizing support now.”

Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC)

“NRC is assessing the situation in order to provide direct support to those most affected across Syria. A massive scale up is needed and our organisation will be part of it,” said Carsten Hansen, Middle East regional director for NRC.

Poland

Poland will send rescue group HUSAR, consisting of 76 firefighters and eight rescue dogs, Interior and Administration Minister Mariusz Kamiński said.

Qatar

The emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, expressed his condolences in a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

State news agency QNA said the emir expressed Qatar’s support for the “sisterly” country “in mitigating the serious humanitarian repercussions left by the earthquake”.

Spain

Spanish urban rescue teams are preparing to travel to Turkey, Spain’s interior ministry said, and officials from the defence ministry and other departments were coordinating to send the crews immediately to Turkey.

Russia

President Vladimir Putin promised to send Russian teams to both countries in telephone calls with Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

“In the nearest hours, rescuers from the Russian emergency ministry will take off for Syria,” the Kremlin said. The defence ministry said 300 military personnel deployed in Syria were helping with the rescue effort.

“Bashar al-Assad gratefully accepted this offer,” the Kremlin said in a statement.

“The Turkish president warmly thanked Vladimir Putin for such a prompt and sincere reaction and said that he was giving instructions to the competent authorities of the country to accept the help of Russian rescuers.”

Ukraine

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine was ready to send support.

On Twitter, Zelenskyy wrote: “I express my sincere condolences to President Erdogan, the Turkish people and the families of the victims of the earthquake in the southeast of Turkey.

“I wish a speedy recovery to all the victims. We will stand by the Turkish people in this difficult time. Ready to provide the necessary assistance to overcome the consequences of the disaster.”

UN

UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi voiced “solidarity” with those affected in both countries, saying the UN agency was “ready to help provide urgent relief to the survivors through our field teams wherever possible”.

United Nations staff is on the ground in Turkey and Syria to assess the need and provide assistance, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said.

“We count on the international community to help the thousands of families hit by this disaster, many of whom were already in dire need of humanitarian aid in areas where access is a challenge.”

United Kingdom

The UK says it will send search and rescue specialists and an emergency medical team to Turkey.

Britain will send 76 search and rescue specialists, four search dogs and rescue equipment that will arrive in Turkey on Monday evening, the British foreign ministry said.

“We stand ready to provide further support as needed,” James Cleverly, the UK’s foreign secretary, said in a statement.

United States

US President Joe Biden said his administration has been working closely with Turkey, authorising an immediate Washington response to the devastating quake.

“Our teams are deploying quickly to begin to support Turkish search and rescue efforts and address the needs of those injured and displaced by the earthquake,” Biden said.

WHO

The United Nations’ World Health Organization chief, Tedros Ghebreyesus, said emergency medical teams had been activated to provide essential health care for the injured and most vulnerable.

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