03 November 22
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They’ve come to embrace transactionalism.
It’s hard to believe now, but after the Democratic wave of 2008—their second consecutive wave election—they had such large majorities, and Republicans seemed so beaten, that they really didn’t prepare for the calamity about to befall them. This was the heyday of Glenn Beck and his conspiracy chalkboard, the tea party, Sarah Palin, and “keep your government hands off my Medicare!” Democrats thought it was all a joke. If anyone remembers Democrats’ counteroffensive, at best they may recall whingeing about the Koch brothers and “dark money.” No one cared. The Dems lost 63 House seats, six Senate seats, six governor’s races, and dozens of state legislative bodies, some of which Republicans hadn’t controlled since Reconstruction. With those new legislative bodies, Republicans drew favorable state and federal maps that locked them in legislative power for most, if not all, of the rest of the decade.
It was a lesson.
Say what you will about the Democrats, who are still going to lose seats on Election Day. But at least they’ve tried a little this go-round—in often unseemly ways—informed by both their recurring 2010 nightmares and the recognition that their brittle five-seat majority wouldn’t defend itself.
They took redistricting seriously, a sharp contrast to the 2010 cycle when they appeared to be unaware it was happening. This time, Eric Holder’s National Democratic Redistricting Committee sued over Republican gerrymanders, while states where Democrats could draw suffocating gerrymanders of their own—Illinois and New York, mainly—went for it. Not all of these worked out. Republicans got away with a couple of mega-gerrymanders, in Ohio and Florida, while Democrats’ New York map was thrown out in state court. But at least Democrats had an operation to counter their opponents’ most egregious moves.
Democrats also took advantage of a new dynamic these midterms—Donald Trump propping up loons in GOP primaries—to help Republicans select weak candidates. For all of the handwringing about whether it was right for Democrats to “meddle” on behalf of election-deniers in Republican primaries, they made some smart investments. Democrats are in fine shape in the governor races in Maryland, Illinois, and Pennsylvania after Democratic Party organizations ushered Republican dingbats to their nominations.
In terms of setting policy, Democrats have embraced the sort of transactionalism they would’ve found off-putting in 2010. I don’t know that Joe Biden wanted to either forgive student debt or put marijuana on a path toward descheduling, or to delve deeper into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But there’s an election coming up.
There is no direct, transactional way to eliminate post-lockdown global inflationary pressures or domestic rises in shootings and carjackings, or to lower Joe Biden’s age. There has not been a 9/11-esque shock that inverts the traditional midterm dynamics working against the president’s party. Democrats will not have a great election night. But they weren’t caught sleeping.
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