| | |  | BY DAVID SIDERS | With help from Lauren Gardner
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A local resident holds a sign in front of the U.S. Supreme Court on June 29, 2022. | Alex Wong/Getty Images | ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — In the three weeks since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the near-consensus in political circles of both parties has been that the decision will hurt Republicans in the suburbs, but not enough to keep the GOP from winning the House in November. There are just too many other things on voters’ minds — most of all, inflation. So how do Democrats ensure that Roe brings low-propensity, Democratic-leaning voters who might otherwise sit November out to the voting booths? They put it on the ballot. This week, abortion rights activists in the swing state of Michigan submitted signatures to qualify a measure for the November ballot to enshrine abortion protections in the state constitution. Similar measures are already teed up in Vermont and California. Anti-abortion measures will appear on ballots in other states, including Kentucky and, next month, Kansas. But Roe is an issue that polls better for Democrats nationally than Republicans. And as my colleague Madison Fernandez has smartly observed, it isn’t going away, with the prospect of more Roe-related ballot measures in 2023 and 2024, including in the presidential battleground of Arizona. For Democrats, the motivation is twofold: Yes, they care about abortion rights. But in a bleak electoral landscape, they are also desperate to put something in front of voters more favorable to them than President Joe Biden, with his dismal job approval ratings and the teetering economy. A ballot measure is more durable than any individual news cycle, fixing Roe’s place in future election conversations even if individual attention-grabbing stories — such as the current uproar over the case of a 10-year-old rape victim’s abortion in Indiana — fade from view. “In elections, you don’t win by just having the best little quip in a debate or the right answer to a specific issue,” Paul Mitchell, a leading political data expert in California, told Nightly. “You win in part by having the election be based on issues that are already your turf.” In some parts of the country, it won’t affect outcomes. But in House districts where, as Mitchell put it, the typical swing voter “is going to be a white, homeowner woman,” it might. “It doesn’t create a uniform kind of bump for Democrats around the entire country,” said Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., which works with Democrats and in nonpartisan races. “But if you think of Denver, Colorado, or you think of Nevada, which has that libertarian streak that is definitely pro-choice, then you start to get to some places where it really does benefit Democrats more.” It’s not a certain bet. Abortion has traditionally ranked low as an issue of concern to voters, and to the extent that they have cared, it’s Republicans who have been more motivated by the subject, even after it appeared Roe was in jeopardy. But abortion rights has been ticking up as a priority of voters since the Supreme Court’s decision last month. There’s also precedent for Democrats to think ballot measures related to a lightning rod cultural issue can help: They have not forgotten 2004, when conservatives engineered a raft of anti-gay marriage ballot measures to juice turnout in multiple states. And it’s not as though the party has many better options. “Biden’s not going to get them there. Ukraine isn’t going to get them there,” said Mike Madrid, a California-based Republican strategist who was a co-founder of the anti-Donald Trump Lincoln Project. “This is it.” In close House races or in statewide contests in swing states, the effect would not have to be gigantic to alter the outcome. “It doesn’t need to work huge,” Madrid said. “It just needs to work for 4 or 5 percent … You use it to get the slivers of voters you need.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at dsiders@politico.com or on Twitter at @davidsiders.
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| | HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT ROE BEING OVERTURNED? JOIN WOMEN RULE ON 7/21: Now that the Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade , abortion policy is in the hands of the states and, ultimately, voters. Join POLITICO national political correspondent Elena Schneider for a Women Rule “ask me anything” conversation featuring a panel of reporters from our politics and health care teams who will answer your questions about how the court’s decision could play out in different states, its impact on the midterms and what it means for reproductive rights in the U.S. going forward. SUBMIT YOUR QUESTIONS AND REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | — A slate of fallout from the Supreme Court’s overturn of Roe is hitting states: In Indiana, Attorney General Todd Rokita is threatening criminal charges against the doctor who performed an abortion on a 10-year-old rape survivor from Ohio . According to the general counsel for the National Right to Life, that 10-year-old who crossed state lines to receive an abortion after she was raped should have carried her pregnancy to term and would have been required to under a model law the organization wrote. Plus, the Texas attorney general filed a lawsuit today challenging new abortion guidance the Biden administration released this week. Texas is arguing that the administration’s guidance, which came in the form of a memo that argues that federal law requires them to provide abortions in emergency circumstances, violates the rights of doctors not to participate in terminating a pregnancy and steps on the state’s right to regulate the procedure within its borders. — Ivana Trump, former president’s first wife, dies at 73: Former President Donald Trump’s first wife died at her home in New York City, he announced in a post on Truth Social. The couple had three children together and divorced in 1992 after 15 years of marriage. The Czech-born businesswoman and former model held several roles across the Trump family businesses, including serving as the former vice president of interior design for the Trump Organization. The Trump family’s statement upon her death called her an “incredible woman.” — Senate Dems, from Bennet to Warnock, post ‘blockbuster’ money ahead of midterms: Michael Bennet is sitting on nearly 10 times the cash of his GOP challenger, the latest example of Democrats’ widening financial advantage as they vie to keep Senate control. In an otherwise dismal political climate for Democrats, the Colorado senator posted $3.3 million over the past three months and has $8 million on hand as Election Day nears, the best fundraising quarter ever for the low-key second-term senator, his campaign told POLITICO. It’s a hefty advantage over his opponent, Republican Joe O’Dea, who raised $2 million and has $840,000 on hand. — Senate eyes votes on computer chip bill that drastically slims U.S.-China competition plans: Democrats are planning to advance domestic computer chip production legislation , signaling an end to formal talks on a broader China competition bill as the White House presses for action before November. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told senators to expect votes as soon as Tuesday to move forward on $52 billion in initial funding for chip factories, as well as a tax credit for ongoing semiconductor production, a person familiar with the plans said. Any movement would elate vulnerable Democrats who have pressed party leaders to break through a logjam on the bill, which lawmakers have spent nearly two years crafting. — House passes $839B defense bill, swatting down Biden’s military plans: The legislation passed today marks the second straight year Democrats and Republicans endorsed significant increases to Biden’s Pentagon spending plan. The National Defense Authorization Act, approved in a 329-101 vote , is $37 billion more than the administration sought in military spending. The bill also rebukes several of Biden’s national security plans: members maintained a nuclear cruise missile the administration planned to scrap, hampered F-16 sales to Turkey and limited the number of aircraft and ships the Pentagon can retire.
| | FLY BY — A Chinese fighter jet had an “unsafe” and “unprofessional” interaction with a U.S. special operations C-130 aircraft in the South China Sea last month, according to two people with knowledge of the incident, writes Lara Seligman. The interaction, which has not been previously reported, comes amid more aggressive military actions by Chinese pilots in the East and South China seas in recent months involving Australian and Canadian aircraft. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin condemned the behavior in Singapore last month. “We’ve seen an alarming increase in the number of unsafe aerial intercepts and confrontations at sea by PLA aircraft and vessels,” Austin said. “This should worry us all.” This comes amidst rising tension in the region as Taiwan worries about an increased military threat from China. Although the U.S. does not formally have diplomatic relations with the island, Washington has a close relationship with Taiwan and has long supported their self-defense capability with arms sales.
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| DICEY DIPLOMACY — Biden today defended his decision to hold an upcoming meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, writes Ari Hawkins and Sam Stein. The decision came despite his prior insistence that he would spurn Saudi Arabia and its de facto leader for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. “I always bring up human rights, but my position on Khashoggi has been so clear, if anyone doesn’t understand it in Saudi Arabia or otherwise they haven’t been around me for a while,” Biden told reporters today in Israel. The president asserted that the purpose of his trip to Saudi Arabia is a broader meeting with regional Persian Gulf leaders to address energy and security issues. And his trip comes amidst spiking gas prices across the U.S. that peaked earlier this summer. Still, Biden has faced criticism over his apparent about-face on Saudi Arabia, a nation that the president once pledged to make a “pariah.”
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| | Congressional Vision for Tech Across America – July 21 Event : How can innovation play a role in America’s global economic leadership? On July 21, Rep, Gerry Connolly (D-VA), Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R-IN), Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) are sharing Congress’ vision for the future of policy and technology surrounding workforce and education at MeriTalk’s MerITocracy 2022: American Innovation Forum. The forum will feature Hill and White House leadership and industry visionaries as they dig into the need for tangible outcomes and practical operational plans. Save your seat here. | | | | | | | | |
About 2,671,800 The number of children under 5 — of the nearly 19 million newly eligible — who have received at least one dose of the vaccine since the FDA gave emergency authorization to the two manufacturers’ drugs on June 18, according to the CDC. States where parents have hesitated to inoculate their children against Covid-19 are now ordering fewer doses of the vaccines for children under 5 than others — what doctors see as a warning sign of the widening ambivalence among many parents about the benefits of vaccinating children against the virus and continuing politicization of health care. |
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Serum Institute of India for Novavax via AP | SHOT IN THE ARM — Food and Drug Administration politics and policy reporter Lauren Gardner emails Nightly: Another Covid-19 vaccine option is likely coming soon, now that the FDA has authorized for emergency use Novavax’s product. But just how soon it hits pharmacy shelves is an open question as several logistical hurdles remain. The Maryland-based company has long pushed its protein-based vaccine, which uses moth cells to produce replicas of the coronavirus spike protein, as an attractive option for the sliver of Americans who have hesitated to get the messenger RNA shots (even though the mRNA vaccines have proven to be safe and effective). Novavax hopes their two-dose offering can fill the void left by the single-dose J&J shot, of which the FDA has limited administration to only those who are unable or unwilling to receive another Covid-19 vaccine. The J&J vaccine can cause rare but sometimes-fatal side effects of blood clots with low platelet counts, a risk that regulators found trumps the shot’s benefits for most Americans. About 10 percent of the U.S. adult population has yet to receive a Covid vaccine dose, and it’s unclear how many of those people are willing to take a non-mRNA option. But for those who are amenable — or for those who are allergic or otherwise unable to take existing Covid vaccines — the wait could still drag on a bit longer. CDC has not yet recommended the vaccine’s administration and is expected to do so before any sort of broad rollout, though it could be on the agenda during a Tuesday meeting of the agency’s independent vaccine advisers. Novavax’s long history of manufacturing problems are also a factor in the shots’ availability. The Biden administration announced earlier this week that it had purchased 3.2 million doses of the Novavax vaccine. But HHS said Monday that the company still must “complete all necessary quality testing in the next few weeks” before the doses can be released to the public. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. | |
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