US possible resurgence, SA possible mistake

 

Genomic epidemiology identifies emergence and rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 in the United States

California, 7 February https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.11...

​ B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, has gained a strong foothold across the world Detection of the variant increased at a logistic rate similar to those observed elsewhere Doubling rate of a little over a week Increased transmission rate of 35-45% Several independent introductions From late November 2020 Onward community transmission, 40 states U.S. is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant Requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality Florida https://twitter.com/DrEricDing?ref_sr...

​ Super Bowl parties in Tampa (Dr Eric Feigl-Ding) Hundreds of people, tightly packed, not wearing masks B117 is becoming dominant in Florida Quarantine for 14 days South Africa suspends Oxford AZ vaccine https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...

​ https://www.news24.com/health24/medic...

​ https://www.wits.ac.za/covid19/covid1...

​ One million doses arrived Minimal protection against SA variant Health Minister Zweli Mkhize, rollout paused Variant became dominant in November No significant protection against illness, but all the cases of disease were mild or moderate Vaccinated people will probably still allow ongoing transmission As has been recently reported in those with prior infection The study Witwatersrand and Oxford N = 2,000 Examined adults between 18 and 64 Seven sites in South Africa Last summer and fall B.1.351 (92% of all current cases in SA) Eeek mutation, E484K E = Glutamate K = Lysine N501Y as well Three US states, Virginia SA variant in the UK https://news.sky.com/story/uk-covid-n...

​ Cases, 147 Vaccine group 19 cases of covid-19 caused by the variant Mild disease was defined as at least one symptom of COVID-19 Placebo group 20 cases Suggests 10% effective Or 22% Participants in the trial were young and healthy Median age 31 Therefore, severe disease protection unknown Novavax and Johnson & Johnson, 50 to 60% Janssen, (J and J) protected against moderate to severe disease Might need to move from hoped for herd immunity to individual severe disease protection Vaccine after effects February 4, 2021 https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/vaccin...

​ https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-...

​ Likelihood of experience one or more mild systemic after effects N = 280,000 From a Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine dose Data comes from a sub-sample, n = 40,000 Largest study group outside of trials Up to 4th January, many HCWs Not previously infected, 19% Previously infected, 33% Systemic after effects, Pfizer/BioNTech Fatigue 9% Headache 8% Chills or shivers 4% Most mild systemic after effects appeared in the first two days Only 3% of people have any after effects beyond three days Local effects, pain or swelling After the first dose, 37% After the second dose, 45% At least one systemic effect (within 7 days) After the first dose, 14% After the second dose, 22% Men, 13% Women, 19% Under 55s, 21% Over 55s, 14% Same study, vaccine hesitancy Over one million app users Yes, 95% Unsure or unwilling, 5% Main three reasons given by hesitant contributors Long term side effects, 50.2% Lack of knowledge, 37.2% Concerns about potential adverse reactions, 30.9%