POLITICO NIGHTLY: The virus cancels its European vacation

 

BY RYAN HEATH AND RENUKA RAYASAM With help from Myah Ward CONTINENTAL DRIFT — Europe thought it had beaten the coronavirus. After disarray in March, when Italy and Spain became the epicenters of the pandemic after China, much of Europe took dramatic national and continent-wide action: national lockdowns, widespread testing, contact tracing. EU countries closed their borders — even to their own neighbors who previously enjoyed open borders. Over the summer, much of Europe let up on the lockdown. Countries like Spain saw international tourism arrivals drop by 99 percent in the second quarter of 2020, but unlike another early epicenter — New York City — Madrid rejected mask mandates (and even protested their eventual imposition) and allowed indoor dining and drinking through the summer tourism season. Borders reopened. A wave of European regret is now rolling in. Now the relatively lax policies are being rolled back, and some of the officials who oversaw them are being pushed out. Europe is at a dangerous inflection point. The EU’s European Center for Disease Prevention and Control says case rates have been consistently rising for two months. Czech Republic Health Minister Adam Vojtěch resigned Monday, after his country’s average daily infections hit more than six times the numbers reported on average in March. For Czechs, the first mass mask-wearers in Europe, that was unacceptable. Poland, the Netherlands and France are also well beyond their April and May infection peaks. In the case of larger countries such as France and Spain, that means regular reports of around 10,000 new cases per day. The British government has see-sawed throughout the pandemic. At first health officials and politicians alike resisted national action, then entered a severe lockdown. In recent weeks ministers urged workers back to their offices, then abruptly banned groups of six or more. This week health minister Matt Hancock threatened $13,000 fines per person for rule breakers, but in the end Prime Minister Boris Johnson backed off. Instead he ordered pubs, bars, restaurants and other hospitality venues in England to close at 10 p.m. each night. You can watch Europe crush the curve and then get crushed by it on these charts. Once the epicenter, Italy is now one of the continent's model citizens. “You look at what’s going on with Italy,” President Donald Trump told reporters March 17. “We don’t want to be in a position like that.” Italians got the message. Today, Italy’s case numbers are down by 70 percent compared to March, and deaths have stayed below 50 per day since June. What did Italy do right? Italians — Europe’s oldest population — leaned into their fears. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte enjoys emergency powers granted through Oct. 15. The government response is guided by scientific committees, with a dashboard of 20 health indicators guiding policy. School is often outdoors. The European experience, like the American example, looks quite different from East Asia’s. There, widespread mask usage, regular temperature checks, and strict contact tracing continue to coincide with zero — or close to zero — deaths each day from Thailand to Taiwan, and from Japan to Singapore. Closer to home, New York City looks the most like Italy. I returned 14 days ago from a family celebration in North Carolina, and have been contacted seven times by the city’s contact tracing team: prompting tests, offering free hotel accommodation for isolation, and reading the rule book to me. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition. If you have thoughts about which is the best Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle, Nightly editor Chris Suellentrop can probably guess your age. Reach out rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.   JOIN OUR THURSDAY TOWN HALL - CONFRONTING INEQUALITY IN AMERICA: The current wave of protests have surfaced long simmering racial inequalities in a pronounced way, making it harder for Americans to ignore. On Thursday, POLITICO Live will convene scholars, activists and public officials for a virtual town hall focused on education inequality and the policies and measures needed to overcome disparities that persist in how Black and minority students are educated. REGISTER HERE.     Chris Duncan, whose 75-year-old mother Constance died from Covid-19 on her birthday, photographs a Covid Memorial Project installation of 20,000 American flags on the National Mall as the United States marks 200,000 lives lost in the pandemic. | Getty Images FIRST IN NIGHTLY ‘HE DIDN’T WISH HER DEAD’ — For seven months, Trump’s team has been searching for something — anything — to take the nation’s attention away from the coronavirus outbreak. His aides are hoping they finally have it. With a Supreme Court nomination fight that will generate attention for the next six weeks, Trump — at least for now — has latched onto a topic his boosters believe will draw attention away from the coronavirus, even as the pandemic on Tuesday claimed its 200,000th death, writes White House correspondent Anita Kumar. While Trump’s allies and aides were careful in more than half a dozen interviews to avoid appearing as if they were celebrating the death of the Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, they all acknowledged the political windfall of the unanticipated event for a president who has seen his approval rating dip during the pandemic. One called it “super.” Another said the coronavirus has now been relegated to “noise.” “He didn’t wish her dead and he didn’t kill her. But her death and the opening it created is clearly going to benefit the president,” said a Republican who is friends with the president. “Any conversation about coronavirus leads to discussion of his handling of it. The most generous person in the world would say it has been mixed.” FROM THE HEALTH DESK EXECUTIVE TIME — Trump is planning to announce a series of executive actions on health care as soon as Thursday, as he tries to shore up his record on an issue that’s been a drag on his reelection campaign, Susannah Luthi, Daniel Lippman and Dan Diamond write. One of the executive actions could include a promised order meant to safeguard insurance protections for pre-existing conditions should the Supreme Court undercut Obamacare, according to seven people familiar with the discussions, including three administration sources. Other executive actions under consideration include efforts to prevent patients from receiving surprise medical bills and an effort to address mental health. The details of the announcement are still in flux, the sources stressed. The moves could come as a comprehensive package or a series of individual orders. The plan is for Trump to make the announcements during an event Thursday afternoon in North Carolina where the focus is health care. Trump over the past two months has promised a replacement plan for Obamacare that hasn’t materialized, even as his administration urges the Supreme Court to overturn the health care law in a case the justices are scheduled to hear a week after Election Day. ON THE ECONOMY MONEY TALKS — About a month ago, POLITICO’s chief economic correspondent Ben White laid out three potential scenarios for the economy this fall: a Goldilocks scenario, a doomsday scenario and the most likely scenario: a merely bad economy that was somewhere in between. With stocks down from an early September peak and the chances for another Covid relief package pretty much down to zero, Nightly caught up with Ben again to see if he’s changed his assessment. The U.S. economy has avoided the doomsday scenario, he said. GDP gains in the third quarter are likely to make up for some of the awful second quarter. Some job gains are happening. The investor selloffs in recent days haven’t completely erased earlier market rallies. But that doesn’t mean things are just right. Government assistance from previous stimulus packages has run out and without new funding, the economy’s slow bleed is likely to continue. About a million people are still filing for unemployment assistance every week. People aren’t paying their rent and mortgages on time. More and more businesses, small and big, will continue to go bankrupt. “We could be doing a ton better,” Ben said. “But Goldlilocks really depends on a proven vaccine.” See if Ben can describe our current economic climate in 3 minutes here. ASK THE AUDIENCE Nightly asks you: As cooler weather arrives in much of the U.S., the Nightly crew has noticed that fall and winter holidays seem to be getting an early pandemic observance. Have you or your neighbors set up some early decorations for Halloween or Thanksgiving (maybe even Christmas)? Send us your photos at nightly@politico.com, and we’ll include select shots in our Friday edition. COVID-2020 SWING IN THEIR STEPS — Just a handful of states could decide who becomes the next president. In the latest POLITICO Dispatch, Laura Barrón-López, David Siders, Natasha Korecki and Marc Caputo break down what it will take for Trump and Biden to win over the most critical voters. Listen to today's POLITICO Dispatch NIGHTLY NUMBER 8 The number of rural North Carolina counties covered by the Newport News, Va., media market. Trump will visit Newport News on Friday to woo voters in neighboring North Carolina, a battleground state where absentee balloting has begun. PARTING WORDS SIX PACK — For a while, the pandemic overshadowed the presidential campaign. The situation has reversed itself: Debate organizers settled on six debate topics for next Tuesday’s faceoff between Trump and Biden, Alex Isenstadt writes. The discussion will cover a lot more ground than just the federal response to Covid-19. The Commission on Presidential Debates said the 90-minute debate will be divided into six 15-minute discussion areas. They include: Trump’s and Biden’s records, the Supreme Court, the coronavirus pandemic, race and violence in cities, election integrity and the economy. The debate will be moderated by Fox News anchor Chris Wallace.   JOIN US FOR POLITICO'S AI SUMMIT - WHAT'S NEXT FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE?: Artificial intelligence is changing the world we live in, and the coronavirus pandemic has served as a testing ground for AI’s potential. But challenges remain. Join POLITICO on October 15 for our 3rd AI Summit, where we will virtually convene policymakers, federal officials, technologists, private-sector executives, scientists and advocates to explore the future of AI as the world tries to recover from the pandemic and as the U.S. deals with social unrest and a presidential election. Register here.     Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam   FOLLOW US

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