Thursday, August 27, 2020

POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: MARKEY leads in new polls — WALSH: ‘Do NOT have PARTIES’ — Battle of the WRITE-INS

 



 
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BY STEPHANIE MURRAY

GOOD MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS.

POLLS SHOW MARKEY AHEAD — Sen. Ed Markey has opened up a lead against Rep. Joe Kennedy III in the final week before the Sept. 1 primary, powered by his dominance among young voters.

The numbers, from a trio of statewide polls released yesterday, are a departure from early polling in the race, which found Kennedy with a double-digit lead over the incumbent senator. Since then, Markey has reintroduced himself, embraced New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and used the Kennedy name as a foil to his own working class roots. The result is a boost in popularity, particularly among young voters. Kennedy's campaign contends they always expected a close race.

Markey holds a 10 percentage point lead over Kennedy — 51 percent to 41 percent — according to a Suffolk University poll which was made public on Wednesday. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percent, and was conducted via telephone from Aug. 23 to Aug. 25.

The incumbent is leading by 7 percentage points in a new Data For Progress poll , which shows Markey with 50 percent of support and Kennedy with 43 percent. That poll was conducted at the same time, and the margin of error is 4 percent.

A new poll from UMass Lowell was conducted a bit earlier — Aug. 13 to Aug. 21 — and shows Markey with a 12 percentage point lead over Kennedy (52 percent to 40 percent). The data track with a UMass Amherst poll released earlier in August that raised eyebrows when it showed Markey with a double-digit lead over Kennedy, but with a pretty wide margin of error.

There are some caveats here. Two of the polls released yesterday use online panels, which means they may overrepresent the more educated, more informed voters who make up Markey’s base. Plus, the state's new mail-in voting program makes it difficult to accurately model the primary electorate. Massachusetts has never voted this way before, so it's hard to know who will turn out, and when they cast ballots.

Kennedy's campaign acknowledged the new polls in a fundraising email on Wednesday evening.

"Since day one, we’ve fully expected this race to come down to the wire — and our internal numbers show this race neck-and-neck with Joe trending in the right direction and gaining momentum in the final stretch," campaign manager Nick Clemons wrote.

Kennedy does hold an advantage over Markey in Rep. Richard Neal's district, which encompasses the western part of the state. A new Jewish Insider poll of the 1st District, released this morning, found Kennedy with 44 percent of support to Markey's 37 percent.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: SAN JUAN MAYOR ENDORSES MARKEY — Carmen Yulín Cruz, the mayor of San Juan, Puerto Rico, is announcing her support for Sen. Ed Markey this morning.

"Ed knows that racial justice, climate justice, social justice, are on the ballot," Cruz said in her endorsement. Cruz recorded her endorsement video in English and in Spanish. The mayor endorsed Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse in his Democratic primary against Rep. Richard Neal earlier this week.

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for the Playbook? Get in touch: smurray@politico.com.

TODAY — Gov. Charlie Baker speaks at Boston Harbor Now's "Our Harbor, Our Home" event. Rep. Joe Kennedy III and New York Rep. Adriano Espaillat, campaign in Lynn, Chelsea, Boston and Lawrence. Sen. Ed Markey campaigns in Quincy, Falmouth, Hyannis, Braintree and Cambridge. Rep. Seth Moulton campaigns on Zoom with Governor’s Councilor Eileen Duff.

 

HAPPENING TODAY - POWERING AMERICA’S ECONOMIC RECOVERY: The economy will be a driving factor in determining the 2020 election outcome. Join POLITICO chief economic correspondent Ben White for a virtual conversation with Larry Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council, on how post-November economic and labor policies will lay the groundwork for an inclusive recovery that helps workers and businesses bounce back. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
THE LATEST NUMBERS

– Massachusetts reports 26 new COVID-19 deaths, 315 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday,” by Tanner Stening, MassLive.com: “State heath officials announced another 26 coronavirus deaths on Wednesday, bringing the statewide death count to 8,755 confirmed deaths. Officials also confirmed another 315 cases of COVID-19, for a total now of at least 117,085 across Massachusetts.”

DATELINE BEACON HILL

– “Why hasn’t the Mass. Legislature sent a police accountability bill to the governor?” by Matt Stout and Dasia Moore, Boston Globe: “As state representatives passed a wide-ranging police accountability bill in late July, they framed the legislation in urgent terms, citing the killing of George Floyd, a Black man, by a white Minneapolis police officer and the worldwide protests for racial justice that followed. ‘The moment,’ Representative Carlos González told lawmakers late that night, ‘is now.’ More than a month later, that moment has yet to materialize.”

– “How did a Biogen event turn into a Covid-19 outbreak? State officials aren't saying.” by Allison DeAngelis, Boston Business Journal: “A Biogen event has been cited as one of the catalysts behind the sharp increase in Massachusetts coronavirus cases at the outset of the pandemic's outbreak, making the Bay State one of the worst-hit states at the time. To this day, little is known about how company and state officials responded in those initial days of the disease.”

– “State regulators take up Encore oversight following big bash in crowded suite,” by Andy Rosen, Boston Globe: “The Massachusetts Gaming Commission plans to discuss oversight of Encore Boston Harbor on Thursday as it meets for the first time since a large party in a hotel suite drew a State Police response and spurred the Everett casino to tighten its COVID-19 safety measures. The party early in the morning of Aug. 16 drew about 100 people, according to State Police .”

FROM THE HUB

– “Moderna coronavirus vaccine shows strong immune response in older adults,” by Zachary Brennan and Sarah Wheaton, POLITICO: “Moderna's coronavirus vaccine candidate appears to be safe and produce a strong immune response in older adults, according to new data from an early trial presented by the company at a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention meeting today.”

– “Watch: BPL To Launch Outdoor Wifi, Walsh Says,” by Isaiah Thompson, WGBH News: “While Boston Public Library branches remain closed for in-building services, Mayor Marty Walsh announced Wednesday a new library program aimed at expanding digital and online access to residents around the city, and particularly in neighborhoods where fewer residents have access to the Internet.”

– “BU dean warns students who host or attend large parties will be suspended this semester,” by Travis Andersen, Boston Globe: “A Boston University official on Wednesday warned that students who host or attend parties of more than 25 people this fall will be suspended for the remainder of the semester as the school tries to prevent the spread of COVID-19 on campus. The warning came in a letter, sent to BU students and posted to the university’s website, from Dean of Students Kenneth Elmore, who also serves as associate provost.”

– “Employer survey indicates new normal will be very different,” by Bruce Mohl, CommonWealth Magazine: “A survey of companies in the Greater Boston area indicates nearly half of their employees will continue to work remotely after concerns about COVID-19 subside, suggesting major changes are in store for commuting, commercial real estate, and the downtown core.”

– “Boston polling places open this week,” by Yawu Miller, Bay State Banner: “Last Saturday and Sunday, Boston voters with mail-in ballots could drop their envelopes in receptacles outside one of nine community centers across the city. Inside the community centers, voters checked in and voted early with the standard paper ballots. For those unwilling to make a trip to a local community center, mail-in ballots could be dropped in the nearest mailbox.”

– “‘Our phone started ringing off the hook:’ Massachusetts private schools see uptick in interest following plans for public schools to go remote,” by Heather Adams, MassLive.com: “At the end of July, the Massachusetts Teachers Association, the largest teachers union in the state, released a statement pushing back on plans for schools to reopen with in-person learning. Without better COVID safeguards in place, it was too dangerous, the organization argued.”

– “Mayor Walsh to college students: ‘Do not have parties,’” by Travis Andersen and Danny McDonald, Boston Globe: “Mayor Martin J. Walsh warned college students to avoid large gatherings as they return to Boston for the fall semester, as he announced that the citywide COVID-19 positive test rate for the week ending Aug. 22 was down slightly from the prior week’s rate. ‘Do not have parties,’ Walsh said, directly addressing students during his regular briefing outside City Hall .”

– As Celtics, Raptors consider boycott after Jacob Blake shooting, Martin Walsh says it’s ‘time for action,’” by Lisa Kashinsky and Rick Sobey, Boston Herald: “Mayor Martin Walsh said it’s ‘time for action’ on police and racial issues as he encouraged people to listen to the message of the Celtics and Raptors players who are considering boycotting the first game of their playoff series after the police shooting of Jacob Blake, a Black man, in Wisconsin.”

THE SENATE SHOWDOWN

– “The Memeable Mr. Markey,” by Kara Voght, Mother Jones: “It’s hard to argue that Twitter fans with follower counts ranging from a few dozen to a couple thousand are single-handedly turning the tables in one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate primaries. But their mere existence is indicative of a larger force at play—one that has already helped erase the comfortable lead Kennedy held for much of the campaign. A pandemic, a presidential primary that disappointed progressives, and Markey’s unlikely alliance with young, vocal climate activists have combined to transform the race.”

– “Rep. Joe Kennedy vows to bring progressive, pro-Israel values to the Senate,” by Matthew Kassel, Jewish Insider: “It bothers Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-MA) that he has been cast as the establishment candidate in next week’s Democratic primary, in which he is running to unseat Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA). ‘By any stretch here, both of us are progressives,’ claimed Kennedy, who points out that he has been endorsed by Rep. Mark Pocan (D-WI), a co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.”

– “Angela Menino throws support behind Kennedy,” by Michael Jonas, CommonWealth Magazine: “Gushing reverentially about Boston’s longest serving mayor apparently only gets you so far. Eight days after Sen. Ed Markey said the vandalized statue of Christopher Columbus in a North End park should be replaced with a statue of Boston’s first — and so far only — Italian-American mayor, Tom Menino, the late mayor’s wife threw her support behind his Democratic primary opponent.”

– “Ed Markey camp calls FBI over Twitter attacks against opponent; Joe Kennedy III team accuses them of allowing ‘toxic’ behavior,” by Benjamin Kail, MassLive.com: “In an increasingly bitter U.S. Senate primary, Sen. Ed Markey’s campaign on Tuesday reported a ‘suspicious’ Twitter account to the FBI after it hurled insults at Rep. Joe Kennedy III’s campaign staff and supporters.”

– “Nadler, Maloney endorse Markey in Senate primary,” by Julia Manchester, The Hill: “Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) scored endorsements from House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) and House Oversight Committee Chairwoman Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) on Wednesday ahead of his Senate primary race against challenger Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Mass.).”

PRIMARY SOURCES

– FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: “Attorney General Maura Healey Endorses Kevin Honan's Re-Election Campaign,” from the Honan campaign: “Attorney General Maura Healey has become the latest progressive leader to endorse State Representative Kevin Honan's re-election campaign, saying ‘for as long as I've known Kevin Honan, he's been a champion of what's right. He is exactly the kind of progressive we need as a representative and a Housing Chair.’"

– FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: “Arne Duncan, Former United States Secretary Of Education, Endorses Alan Khazei For Congress In MA-04 Race,” from the Khazei campaign: “Former United States Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, one of the longest serving Cabinet Secretaries of the Obama-Biden Administration who served from 2009 to 2015, has formally endorsed Alan Khazei in his campaign for the U.S. Congress. ‘Alan’s life has been devoted to empowering young people to create change in their lives and the lives of others,’ Duncan said.”

– FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: “Jesse Mermell Earns Sweet Endorsement from Ben & Jerry of Ben & Jerry’s,” from the Mermell campaign: “Jesse Mermell was today endorsed by longtime progressive advocates and the co-founders of Ben & Jerry’s, Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield. In addition to running the iconic ice cream company, Cohen and Greenfield frequently support progressive candidates who will support Medicare for All, protect clean air and water, and get big money out of politics.”

– “Heal the country? Disease specialists running for Congress,” by Steve LeBlanc, The Associated Press: “A background in science — specifically, infectious disease and epidemiology — may not spring to mind as a key selling point for candidates hoping to land a seat in Congress. Not unless, say, the country is in the throes of a deadly pandemic. Two Democrats in Massachusetts are highlighting their disease expertise as they pitch themselves to voters in the state’s Sept. 1 primaries.”

– “Zannetos drops out of race for 4th Congressional District seat race, supports Mermell,” by George W. Rhodes, Sun Chronicle: “And then there were seven. Christopher Zannetos of Wellesley has pulled out of the Democratic contest for 4th Congressional District seat and thrown his support to Jesse Mermell of Brookline. He follows another Brookline resident, Dave Cavell, who withdrew two weeks ago and also announced support for Mermell.”

– “Belsito's advocacy for women's issues drives her forward,” by Ethan Forman, Eagle-Tribune: “Jamie M. (Zahlaway) Belsito is running to unseat U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton in a three-way race in the Sept. 1 Democratic Primary because she says the serious, life-threatening issues that affect women and families have been put on the back burner in Washington, D.C. The COVID-19 pandemic, she said, has further revealed income and racial disparities in how pregnant and birthing moms are treated in the health care system.”

THE WILD WEST

– “National political figures endorse Neal, Morse in race for congressional seat,” by Dusty Christensen, Daily Hampshire Gazette: “National political figures are throwing their support behind candidates in the 1st Congressional District as the race becomes a bellwether of the influence of the Democratic Party’s left wing.”

– “Neal leading Morse 49-40 in Massachusetts 1st,” by Matthew Kassel, Jewish insider: “Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA) leads his progressive challenger, Alex Morse, by nine points ahead of the heavily contested September 1 Democratic primary in Massachusetts’s 1st congressional district, according to a new Jewish Insider poll. The poll, which is based on 518 voter surveys conducted by RABA Research on August 23 and 24, puts Neal on relatively comfortable footing with 49% of the vote, placing him outside the 4.3% margin of error.”

THE OPINION PAGES

– “The climate case against Ed Markey,” by Alan Wirzbicki, Boston Globe: “When Ed Markey arrived in Congress, in 1976, American utility companies were in the early stages of a major transition, building the next generation of electric power plants. Decades before wind and solar became viable, and after the early ’70s oil crisis scared utilities and regulators away from oil-fired plants, most utilities had only two viable options: coal or nuclear power.”

DAY IN COURT

– “SJC rules Sept. 1 deadline will stick for receipt of mail-in ballots,” by Joe Dwinell and Lisa Kashinsky, Boston Herald: “The state’s highest court has ruled the Sept. 1 primary date will remain the deadline for mail-in ballots to be received — a decision frowned upon by Mayor Martin Walsh. The SJC ruled ‘that the September 1 deadline for receipt of mail-in primary election ballots is not unconstitutional.’ Walsh said his concern is for the voters.”

– “State judge blocks attempt to end eviction moratorium,” by Sarah Betancourt, CommonWealth Magazine: “A Suffolk Superior Court judge on Wednesday rejected a request by two landlords to suspend the state’s moratorium on evictions, saying the ban is not an ‘unreasonable exercise’ of power. ‘I cannot see my way clear in finding that Plaintiffs are likely to succeed on merits of their claims that the Eviction Moratorium Law is an unreasonable exercise of power having no actual relation to the public safety, public health, or public morals,’ wrote Judge Paul Wilson.”

ABOVE THE FOLD

— Herald“BIGGER THAN BASKETBALL,”  Globe“Amid tumult, Pence puts focus on 'law and order,'" "As Wis. protests rage, teen arrested in fatal shooting.”

THE LOCAL ANGLE

– “State Rep. Mark Cusack, challenger Paul Hennessy talk police reform,” by Anastasia E. Lennon, The Patriot Ledger: “For the first time since 2010, state Rep. Mark Cusack, D-Braintree, is running against an opponent in the Democratic primary. His challenger is Paul Hennessy, a longtime resident of Braintree. Cusack, 36, is finishing up his fifth term as a representative for the 5th Norfolk District, which includes Braintree, Randolph and Holbrook.”

– “Democrats face complicated path in 2nd District,” by Geoff Spillane, Cape Cod Times: “Tuesday’s Democratic primary for state representative in the 2nd Barnstable District is not a typical contest. In addition to the impact the coronavirus pandemic has had on traditional campaigning, both candidates are running write-in campaigns. Neither Kip Diggs, of Osterville, nor Michael Mecenas, of Hyannis, will be on the ballot, but both want to be the party’s nominee to face incumbent state Rep. William Crocker, R-Centerville, in the Nov. 3 general election.”

MEDIA MATTERS

– “How An Intrepid Greek Exile, The CIA And The Boston Globe Nearly Kept Richard Nixon Out Of The White House,” by Dan Kennedy, WGBH News: “Elias Demetracopoulos was a fascinating character — World War II resistance fighter, journalist, opponent of the military junta in Greece and, ultimately, a political exile in the United States. Today, though, he is all but forgotten. In a new biography, James H. Barron seeks to rectify that.”

ICYMI: I was a guest on CommonWealth Magazine’s podcast the CodCast to talk about the Senate primary race. Listen here.

HAPPY BELATED BIRTHDAY – to Hampshire County Register of Deeds Mary Olberding, who celebrated Wednesday.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY – to Westford state Rep. Jim Arciero.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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