POLITICO NIGHTLY: Covering the spread

By Matthew Kaminski and Renuka Rayasam

Presented by

THE GREAT ACCELERATION — Pandemics are said to change history more than wars do. The coronavirus has already upended, well, just about everything. The bull market. The 2020 presidential campaign. Our daily lives. Yet what's likely to prove more enduring are the changes — political, social, economic — that are being accelerated by this crisis. Several stand out: Digital transformation — We all love the internet again. Cloud infrastructure, Big Data, 5G, telecommuting and telemedicine have sped up (and who cares about Cambridge Analytica now?). Big Tech looks set to get richer, and shake free of its recent political problems, faster than it would have without corona. The future of work ... has arrived. In days, Zoom joined Hoover, Xerox and Google in the elite brand-as-verb club. Years from now, we'll wonder why so many people logged so many air miles for business. Sovereign and corporate debt went from a subject of quiet specialist concern to the economic structural weakness that looks most likely to trigger the worst aftershocks in coming months. Bye, bye laissez-faire — Trillions of dollars in rescue funds, talk of nationalization, big government in the economic driver's seat. All enthusiastically backed by Ronald Reagan's Grand Old Party, whose Trump-era flirtation with rejecting the old-time free-trade and free-market religion has been consummated by corona. Illiberal politics — Both the anti-immigrant, close the borders factions (see the U.S., much of Europe) and outright turns to authoritarianism ( Hungary now, maybe Poland soon) have reached a higher gear. Polarization — No, blue and red America aren't coming closer together, the bipartisan rescue plan notwithstanding. Where you stand on when to restart normal life, and how bad this epidemic has been or could be, and whether Trump's to blame, is the newest partisan litmus test. Some other trends will be either reversed or accelerated, and it's too soon to tell which: The decline of experts, from Brexit to the Trump era. For some, corona redeemed expertise. But a backlash may be brewing against public health pros whose aggressive lockdowns exact a destructive economic toll. Ask Tony Fauci, already the target of Trump partisan outrage. American democracy — Delayed or virus-stained primaries, the specter of virtual conventions and even postponing November's election could damage two centuries-plus of constitutional order. Then again, this election could strengthen it — particularly if America figures out how to expand the franchise by enabling people to vote securely by mail or the Internet. Or not. American decline — Ham-handed health policy (see testing snafus ), fights with allies and a sinking economy might speed up China's rise to top dog. Or the crisis could refocus America on long-ignored challenges, such as a weak manufacturing base or rising deficits. Washington might even use a convenient common foe — the birthplace of the coronavirus, China — to rebuild a global coalition of democracies for the 2020s. China's rise — Beijing is looking to pick off allies annoyed with Trump, like Germany and Canada. But it's easy to imagine China's authoritarian rulers, who mishandled the outbreak in Wuhan, failing to keep friends abroad or their own people in check. Corona could wind up doing to the Chinese Communist Party what the 1986 explosion at Chernobyl did to the Soviet one. Globalization — As damaging as corona has been to a borderless world — and to institutions that champion that idea, such as the European Union — you could (not will...) see multilateralism and globalization triumph, probably later than sooner. The world will need trade, which is good news, perhaps, for the beleaguered World Trade Organization. Champions of EU integration will make a renewed case for economic burden-sharing to give the bloc fresh life. The equally beleaguered World Health Organization could be the place to forge a global response to a future pandemic. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition, a nightly intelligence brief from our global newsroom on the effect of the coronavirus on politics and policy, the economy and global health. We'd like to note ahead of the holiday weekend the bipartisan trend of governors declaring the Easter bunny an essential worker. Reach out: rrayasam@politico.com and @renurayasam.

A message from PhRMA: In these unprecedented times, America's biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: beating COVID-19 . We are working with governments and insurers to ensure that when new treatments and vaccines are approved, they will be available and affordable for patients. Explore our efforts.

First In Nightly

TRACKING THE HOTSPOTS — Infections are set to double within a week in more than 240 counties in the United States with 50 or more cases of Covid-19. Our Alice Miranda Ollstein and Beatrice Jin map the 88 counties that could be hardest hit using data on age and other health factors. People in poor health, as well as the elderly and minorities, could see the highest death rates.

Around the Nation

IS IT SAFE TO COME OUT? — In California's Santa Clara County, which quickly shut things down as coronavirus descended, the county executive is warning that major sporting events may not resume by Thanksgiving, our Debra Kahn and Victoria Colliver write. The San Francisco Bay Area was the nation's first metro area to impose shelter-in-place orders 25 days ago, but the bellwether region for the U.S. isn't emerging from hibernation any time soon despite its relative success. In Santa Clara, health officer Sara Cody told county supervisors this week that she wants a sustained reduction in new cases for at least 14 days — or one incubation period — before considering changes to her shelter-in-place order. Bay Area experts predict it could be anywhere from two weeks to more than a month until case numbers start to dwindle, which they expect will give the region enough time to ramp up testing and tracing of contacts. RED MODEL, BLUE MODEL — A new fault line is emerging in the nation's polarized response to the coronavirus pandemic: the modeling used to predict its death count and spread, our David Siders and Myah Ward report. Early bleak forecasts spurred support for extreme social-distancing measures, shutting down whole swaths of the American economy. But in recent days, as scientists lowered projections for deaths from Covid-19 because they said social distancing is working, influential conservatives began casting the data as a sign the virus was never really that bad. The argument carries significant implications not only for the debate over the reopening of the economy, but for the reelection of Trump. Democrats have pummeled the president for his initial response to the pandemic and expect a cratering economy to work against him in November. In shifting blame to the models, conservatives are suggesting an alternative place to put fault.

Palace Intrigue

WHO'S BETTER, WHO'S BEST — Aides to President Donald Trump are debating some potentially radical moves to punish the WHO in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, including cutting off U.S. funding and trying to create an alternative institution, our Nahal Toosi writes. Officials have begun drafting a letter that — if the decision is made — will announce a suspension of U.S. funding to the WHO and a related body, the Pan American Health Organization, according to a person familiar with the issue. The draft document also tells officials at the State Department, the U.S. Agency for International Development and other institutions to try to route the money to existing alternative organizations.

From the Health Desk

HOSPITAL BILLS — The price of face masks has skyrocketed from 6 cents to $2.80 a piece, said Adam Willmann, president and CEO of Goodall-Witcher, a rural hospital in central Texas. That's just one of the crushing costs facing the hospital at the same time that it's suffering from a steep drop in revenue from a state order canceling non-emergency procedures. The situation is playing out across the country as the pandemic moves from big cities to small towns. Rural hospitals are facing the same economic pressures as restaurants, shops and other businesses ordered to close to keep the virus at bay. "As a rural health care provider, we're fighting to get paid for the work we do," Willmann said. "How are we going to get paid when we don't do work?" About $30 billion of the $100 billion that Congress set aside in its emergency aid package for hospitals and other providers starts flowing to facilities today. But rural hospital lobby groups say that their share won't be enough to cover the loss of profitable elective procedures and the costs of treating Covid-19 patients who lack insurance. Terry Scoggin, CEO of Titus Regional Medical Center in the northeast corner of Texas near the borders of Oklahoma and Arkansas, said the health system he runs will lose about $3 million in just 30 days from the canceling of elective procedures. He's also spending more money to prepare for a surge of Covid-19 patients: He's got a staffer at every door to monitor for symptoms and has set up a taskforce to stockpile protective equipment. Already more than 30 positive cases have been confirmed in Titus and the five surrounding counties. "I've never been busier, but our volume of people is the lowest it's ever been," said Scoggin. The pandemic could wipe out providers in rural areas that serve about a fifth of the country's population, according to the National Rural Health Association. Nearly half of all rural facilities were operating at a financial loss before the current crisis. Scoggin estimates his facility has about two months of cash left. About a third of the adult patients that Titus serves don't have health insurance, so when a surge hits, Titus could spend a huge sum treating patients without getting reimbursed. In order to make sure that the facility is still standing when the pandemic passes, he furloughed or laid off about 10 percent of the health center's staff.

The Very Rev. Andrew Nunn of London's Southwark Cathedral delivers the Good Friday morning prayer via live video broadcast. | Getty Images

Ask The Audience

Nightly asked our readers this week: How has coronavirus changed the way that you think about politics? And you answered. Below are some of your responses, lightly edited for style and clarity. "Anything is possible. In January, spending $2 trillion out of the blue would have been unthinkable. In March, we did it in less than a week." — Jeremy Rosen, lawyer, Chicago "We need to be far more federal in our approaches to many things, including health care, commerce and education. The spectacle of a federal stockpile of health care equipment and supplies that does not actively and quickly dispense the items to states in a national emergency is just ludicrous. Leaving it up to states or cities to decide whether to halt gatherings and issue stay-home directives — also ludicrous." — Martha Knight, retired, Rochester, N.Y.

"I never believed in any type of medical insurance for all. Now without a doubt I believe it should be addressed and passed." Kimber Porter, Riverside, Calif.

"As someone who values the right to vote for offices both local and national, the need for a secure mechanism to vote in times of crisis and emergency is clear. Some voting system by mail or online (If the census is online why can't voting be?) is needed for both the general voting public, and as a mechanism for Congress's daily work." — Autumn Hanline, manager, Charlotte, N.C. "Covid-19 clearly delineates the importance of having mail-in voting or weekend voting, starting with the 2020 election. We must insist on free and fair elections ... no excuses!" — Dorine K. Rader, retired educator, Collegeville, Pa. "It's made me think how stubbornly we have kept to traditions even with the tremendous advances in technology available, traditions like in-person voting and physical attendance of legislators in order to vote that seem antiquated now." — Teigan Avery, university student, Missoula, Mont.

The Global Fight

A SPANISH SUGGESTION — Spain, with a coronavirus death toll topping 16,000, has begun a push for a more coordinated global response to the pandemic, Santiago Cabanas, Spain's ambassador to the U.S., told our Ryan Heath. Describing health as "a global public good," Cabanas said "it's in our interest that we support countries like Iran or Venezuela, irrespective of the nature of the regimes." The price of refusing assistance to those populations might be a reimporting of the virus back into Europe and the U.S. in several months. Cabanas said tourism-dependent Spain would lift its ban on travel by non-EU citizens "as soon as possible," but only when "we're sure that everybody's safe in coming." Spain remains under a national lockdown until at least April 25. Cabanas also said there is a "great risk" that authoritarian governments will be perceived as handling the pandemic better than democracies. FREEDOM FIGHTERS — The Human Rights Foundation has announced what it calls "the world's first event to focus on the friction between individual freedom and the state response to the virus," the group's president, Thor Halvorssen, tells our Ben Schreckinger . The virtual conference, taking place Monday and Tuesday, focuses on the response of authoritarian regimes to the outbreak of the disease. It will feature online talks by speakers such as Pulitzer prize-winning journalist Anne Applebaum; Joshua Wong, a leader of Hong Kong's pro-democracy protests; and Russian activist Garry Kasparov, who serves as the foundation's chairman. In February, the foundation postponed its annual Oslo Freedom Forum, a premier gathering of activists from across the planet, because of coronavirus. Now the group is striking back with COVIDCon. Much of the value of summits on the international NGO circuit comes from the in-person schmoozing, but a virtual global conference can be organized much more quickly than in-person one. Perhaps the virtual summit format will outlive the pandemic, and COVIDCon could be the start of something of a trend in global activism — something like the 21st century's answer to the telethon. Nightly Number $600 billion — The amount the travel and retail industries want pumped into the Small Business Administration's loan program, according to a five-page memo outlining the next steps they want Congress to take. The industries' trade groups also recommended extending the loan program through December, allowing businesses to receive up to three loans, expanding eligibility rules and providing another $20 billion for airports. (h/t POLITICO Influence author Theodoric Meyer) Parting Words WINNERS AND LOSERS — Lobbyists for industries from retail to reefer have been hustling to make the case that they're too important to be shut down — a designation that could mean millions for companies and the employees who keep them running. They've also appealed to the Trump administration, which has put out recommendations outlining which industries it considers essential — although states and cities aren't bound by the recommendations. The National Shooting Sports Federation, for example, successfully convinced the Trump administration to add gun stores and shooting ranges to its list of essential businesses. The move convinced New Jersey to change its own rules — but it didn't sway Los Angeles, which has shut down its gun stores. Mea culpa: On Thursday, we incorrectly labeled North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper's political affiliation. He is a Democrat.   A message from PhRMA: In these unprecedented times, America's biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: beating COVID-19. The investments we've made have prepared us to act swiftly: · Working with governments and insurers to ensure that when new treatments and vaccines are approved, they will be available and affordable for patients · Coordinating with governments and diagnostic partners to increase COVID-19 testing capability and capacity · Protecting the integrity of the pharmaceutical supply chain and keeping our plants open to maintain a steady supply of medicines for patients Explore our efforts.   Did someone forward you this email? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam   Follow us  POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA