Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Survey sets Senate debate stage

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Survey sets Senate debate stage

Presented by Mass General Brigham

SURVEYS SAY — Sen. Elizabeth Warren and GOP Senate hopeful John Deaton will face off tonight in the first of two debates this week to make their final appeals to voters before early voting begins over the weekend.

A new University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB poll out this morning shows Deaton still has a lot of ground to gain: He trailed Warren by a 22-point margin in the poll, which surveyed 700 Bay Staters between Oct. 3 and Oct. 10, the latest in a handful of surveys that show the political newcomer well behind Warren.

The odds are long that the attorney and Marine veteran can cut the steep margin in the three weeks until Election Day. Those surveyed also said they believe Warren would handle an array of major issues (the economy, immigration, crime, taxes, reproductive rights and more) better than Deaton. The poll had a margin of error of +/-4.8 percent.

But the UMass survey did offer him one silver lining: two of the words people picked the most to describe Deaton were “Unknown” and “Republican.” That may be a near-lethal combination in a presidential election in Massachusetts with Senate control also up for grabs, but it does show there’s a potential knowledge gap Deaton could chip at this week.

Still, Massachusetts voters inclined to put moderate Republicans in the governor’s office aren’t necessarily ready to let the party flip the Senate seat — even if Deaton’s willing to break from the GOP over abortion and support for Donald Trump.

JIM LYONS TANKED THE MASS GOP WITH HIS IRRATIONAL EXTREMISM & DEBTS. NOW PROMOTING A LOSER LIKE DIEHL? DON'T IGNORE FUNDING FOR DONNIE PALMER WHO POSTED ANTI-ASIAN ATTACKS AMONG NUMEROUS OTHER ISSUES.

Leaning too heavily into those promises risks alienating some of the harder line Republicans in the state. The Massachusetts Freedom Fighters, a coalition of conservatives led by former MassGOP Chair Jim Lyons, called on Republicans to reject Deaton over his pledge to buck the party on those issues. There’s also a small community on social media calling on GOP voters to write-in Geoff Diehl, the former state representative and past gubernatorial candidate who ran and lost to Warren by 24 points in 2018, instead of voting for their party’s nominee.

The debate starts at 8:30 p.m. tonight, and airs live on WSBK-TV 38, WBZ Newsradio 1030, as well on the WBZ and Boston Globe websites.

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. We also have another temperature check on where Bay Staters stand on the five ballot questions they’ll face in November, thanks to the UMass/WCVB poll. Here’s where each is at, per recent polling:

GREEN LIGHT: They’re facing opposition from leaders on Beacon Hill, but Question 1 (allowing the auditor to audit the Legislature) and Question 2 (ending the requirement for high school students to pass the MCAS test before they can get a diploma) both have support from voters, in the three recent polls from WBUR/CommonWealth Beacon/MassINC, the Boston Globe/Suffolk University and the latest results from UMass.

Sixty-three percent of respondents in the UMass poll said they would vote in favor of Auditor Diana DiZoglio having the power to crack open lawmakers’ books, compared to 11 percent who were opposed. That’s the third survey that shows the “yes” with more than a 50-point lead.

A majority of voters in each poll also said they would back the question that would end the requirement for students to pass the MCAS exam before they’re able to graduate. That margin is closer though (17 points in the MassINC and UMass polls, and 21 points in the Suffolk poll).

Question 3, which would give app-based drivers collective bargaining rights, also notched majority support in both the Suffolk and Umass polls.

YELLOW LIGHT: Bay Staters are split down the middle on a question that would legalize psychedelics (with restrictions). All three surveys show a statistical tie between support and opposition for Question 4, which would allow people over the age of 21 to use some natural psychedelic substances at licensed practices.

MIXED SIGNALS: One question that hasn’t followed a clear pattern in the polls: Question 5, which would gradually bump up hourly wages for tipped workers over five years, until it hit the state’s full minimum wage (at which point employers would be allowed, though not required, to pool tips and disperse them among all employees).

The MassINC poll showed the yes and no sides in a statistical dead heat, while the Suffolk poll showed the no side ahead. The UMass results have respondents overwhelmingly supporting the question at 61 percent.

The catch: The Suffolk poll included the piece of the question voters will see on their ballots that notes employers would eventually be able pool tips — a cause of concern among some restaurant workers — while the UMass poll didn’t.

With 21 days until the election, there’s still plenty of time and campaigning left that could shake up the results.

TODAY — The Senate debate starts at 8:30 p.m. Gov. Maura Healey participates in a fireside chat with TDK Ventures at their “100X Energy Track” event at 10:45 a.m. in Boston. She and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu attend a ribbon cutting for Vertex’s Jeffrey Leiden Center for Cell and Genetic Therapies at 11:30 a.m. in Boston. Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll speaks at a 50th anniversary luncheon for Rosie’s Place at noon in Boston and chairs a meeting of the Special Commission on Emergency Housing Assistance Programs at 1 p.m. at the State House. Attorney General Andrea Campbell is on GBH’s “Boston Public Radio” at noon. Wu speaks at Boston Unity Soccer Partners' “fan fest” celebration to mark NWSL’s return to Boston at 7:30 p.m. in Back Bay. Sen. Ed Markey hosts a press conference on climate change and climate resilience in the wake of last week’s hurricanes at 11 a.m. in Boston.

What are you watching for in tonight’s debate? Let me know: kgarrity@politico.com

A message from Mass General Brigham:

BALLOT BATTLES

— “Mass. should keep the MCAS graduation requirement, secretary of education says,” by Maddie Khaw, The Boston Globe.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The campaign looking to institute the state’s full minimum wage for tipped workers is going up with a digital ad today, tying the issue to the presidential race.

“It’s supported by Kamala Harris, and opposed by you-know-who,” a woman says to the camera from behind a bar, before the video flashes to show an actor appearing to play former President Donald Trump sitting at a table in a restaurant.

The ad is backed by a more than $300,000 buy, and will run on YouTube and streaming platforms, according to the campaign.

DATELINE BEACON HILL

WHAT'S IN A NAME — State Sen. Joanne Comerford is keeping alive her effort to change Columbus Day to Indigenous People’s Day, a shift she says is necessary to help “tell an accurate history” of Massachusetts’ origins.

“Having an Indigenous People's Day allows us to tell a more accurate truth, and in that truth, we can grapple with the present and find a more just way forward,” Comerford told Playbook over the long weekend.

Legislation the Northampton Democrat filed was reported out favorably for the second session in a row, but it hasn’t been brought for a vote yet. Some, like state Rep. Jeff Turco, have shot down the proposal, saying the day is a celebration of Italian-American history in the U.S.

Turco told veteran radio host Dan Rea last night that he intends to file his own bill next session designating Aug. 9 as Indigenous People’s Day instead, inline with the United Nations.

It’s unclear where legislative leaders stand, but Gov. Maura Healey is on board with the change — her office already refers to the day as Indigenous People's Day (and she also issued a proclamation earlier honoring October as Italian Heritage Month). If the bill doesn't make it through before the end of the year, Comerford plans to refile it next year, she said. More from the Daily Hampshire Gazette.

— “Seafood Day to celebrate fishing industry's contributions to the state,” by Ethan Forman, Gloucester Daily Times.

— “Norton select board votes against MBTA zoning law now headed to town meeting voters,” by Stephen Peterson, The Sun Chronicle.

AND — “MBTA housing act sees push-back in Peabody, Ipswich,” by Caroline Enos, The Salem News.

FROM THE HUB

— “Boston city councilor says harassment, intimidation has escalated as he considers 2025 mayoral bid,” by Gayla Cawley, Boston Herald.

— “Workers at two Boston hotels join indefinite strike,” by Isabel Hart, Boston Business Journal: “Nearly 700 additional Boston hotel workers went on strike indefinitely Monday, joining the roughly 600 Hilton workers who have been picketing for a week. Some 685 workers at the Omni Parker House and the Omni Boston at the Seaport began an indefinite strike that they say will continue until a new contract agreement is met."

— “Registered mail: After snub, Boston City Council issues ‘rare’ subpoena to USPS official,” by Gayla Cawley, Boston Herald: “A ticked-off Boston City Council voted to issue a ‘rare’ subpoena to compel testimony from the local postmaster at next month’s hearing on late mail concerns after the U.S. Postal Service blew off the body’s request to appear at the last one.”

YAHD SIGNS AND BUMPAH STICKAHS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Attorney General Andrea Campbell has endorsed Tom Driscoll in his campaign for Essex County Clerk of Courts, according to his campaign.

— Campbell also endorsed Westfield City Councilor Bridget Matthews-Kane, her campaign said. The Democrat is challenging GOP state Rep. Kelly Pease for his 4th Hampden seat.

— “Young voters break away from Harris on Israel-Hamas war: ‘The lesser of two evils is still evil’,” by Emma Platoff and Hilary Burns, The Boston Globe.

— “Candidate vows to reject judges over ICE detainers,” by Christian M. Wade, The Eagle-Tribune: “Anne Manning-Martin (R), one of three candidates running for the Council’s 5th District that includes the North Shore and Merrimack Valley, is vowing that if elected she will only support candidates for judges and special magistrates who ‘protect the public’ by honoring federal immigration detainers for criminal suspects living in the U.S. illegally." PAYWALL

WALZ WATCH — Minnesota governor and vice presidential hopeful Tim Walz is heading back to the Bay State for another high-dollar fundraiser days out from the the election. Walz will be in Boston Sunday afternoon, according to an invitation the state Democratic party sent out.

DAY IN COURT

— “Post-Bruen decision, everyone has to be a gun-law historian,” by Jennifer Smith, CommonWealth Beacon.

excerpt:

EVER SINCE the US Supreme Court handed down a paradigm-shifting ruling two years ago, Massachusetts policymakers have had to retool their approach to making and defending laws regulating weapons, trying to become passable historians as much as lawmakers.

In New York State Rifle & Pistol Assn., Inc. v. Bruen, or Bruen, the US Supreme Court doubled down on a relatively recent expansion of Second Amendment rights. An earlier case in 2008 – Heller – concluded that a right to keep and bear arms for self-defense extends outside the home. Bruen created a new framework to determine the constitutionality of restrictions by rooting them in the “nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation.”

The decision has opened almost all aspects of the state’s gun safety law regime to challenge and sent lawyers scrambling for history books. As recent Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court decisions have shown, if a policy is not tied to a founding-era law or practice – a so-called historical analogue – it likely will not survive judicial scrutiny.

The Gun Owners Action League, the local state affiliate of the National Rifle Association, followed this approach in challenging a recently passed gun law on Beacon Hill. The league’s court filing described the new law as “onerous firearms legislation” because it includes restrictions on gun ownership and the carrying of weapons “that are as burdensome as they are ahistorical.”

Attorney General Andrea Campbell, whose office defends most state gun laws, says judges now find themselves grappling with historical as much as legal precedents.

“The Supreme Court has put courts in the very difficult position of looking to the habits of 18th and 19th century Americans to determine the constitutionality of modern weapons laws,” Campbell said. “These laws address threats and technologies that were completely unknown to earlier generations of Americans.”

A message from Mass General Brigham:

FROM THE 413

— “Cooley Dickinson puts off elective surgeries amid national IV fluid shortage,” by Alexa Lewis, Daily Hampshire Gazette.

— “Sheriff Nicholas Cocchi reimbursed state for damage to his work vehicle after DUI arrest,” by Greta Jochem, The Springfield Republican: “Sheriff Nicholas Cocchi wrote a check to the state last week as reimbursement for damage to his state-supplied SUV after he was arrested for operating under the influence. In response to a public records request to the Sheriff’s Office, The Republican obtained invoices for four new tires, two replacement rims and repairs to the vehicle, along with a check signed by Cocchi for $2,428, the full total of the bills.”

— “In July, Housatonic water’s manganese levels surged above the safe limit set by the state. No one reported it,” by Heather Bellow, The Berkshire Eagle.

— “Hampden DA Spox Exits, Opening One of the 413’s Few Big Govt Comms Roles,” by Matt Szafranski, Western Mass Politics & Insight.

THE LOCAL ANGLE

— “‘I’ve seen things I can’t believe’: As homeless population surges in Davis Square, Somerville grapples with response,” by Spencer Buell, The Boston Globe: “A rise in unsheltered homelessness here, mainly in two parks near the MBTA stop, was hard to ignore, as were reports of open drug use and drug dealing, discarded needles, and violence — notably, two back-to-back stabbings in September in which four people were injured. Some neighbors felt newly uneasy running errands after dark or about the growing crowd of people injecting drugs near two day cares.”

— “Bombshell Brockton audit omits key fact in alleged assault by mentor — he was exonerated,” by Chris Helms, The Brockton Enterprise: “A city-sponsored report on the Brockton Public Schools deficit scandal said that Anthony Sampson — a mentor hired by former Superintendent Mike Thomas — allegedly hit a student. The report left out the fact that the state reversed its ruling, saying the mentor was innocent.”

— “Mayor to recommend Brown School proposal soon,” by Jim Sullivan, The Newburyport Daily News.

— “Someone in Hanson projecting a Trump logo on a water tower. How officials are responding,” by Jessica Trufant, The Patriot Ledger.

MEANWHILE IN MAINE

INTERESTING READ!

— “Maine’s Jared Golden is ready to make things awkward for his fellow Democrats,” by Garrett Downs, POLITICO.

HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH

WELCOME TO THE WORLD! — Beata Coloyan, executive director of Boston’s Office of Neighborhood Services, and 90 West’s Harry Shipps welcomed their child, daughter Florence Joyce Coloyan Shipps, early Monday morning.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to Anne Brandes, Alexis Krieg of the Omidyar Network, Stat’s Rick Berke, Darby Bukowski and Jim St. George. Happy belated to Jim Zambrano, director of external affairs for Senate President Karen Spilka, who celebrated Friday.

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