BEWARE THE LONGSHOTS — With just six weeks to go until Election Day, conventional wisdom in Washington is that control of the Senate is likely to flip to the Republican Party. It’s a reflection of the grim underlying map for Democrats, who have a narrow one-seat majority but must defend roughly two-thirds of the 34 Senate seats up for election this year. It’s a seemingly indefensible position, with almost no margin for error. Three Democratic-held seats are in red states that former President Donald Trump carried twice. Another five are clustered across the politically treacherous battleground states. Already, Democrats are as good as one seat down because of the near-certainty that retiring Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia goes Republican. Yet a few races in the unlikeliest places could unravel everything. In Texas, where Republicans have a nearly three-decade long grip on statewide office, GOP Sen. Ted Cruz’s lead in the polls is just three points, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average . In increasingly red Florida, GOP Sen. Rick Scott’s advantage has been cut to under five points. Staunchly conservative Nebraska is producing the most incongruous race of all: GOP Sen. Deb Fischer clings to a four-point lead over independent Dan Osborn. If just one of those races produced a surprise winner, the effects could be far-reaching. Republicans are counting on at least two victories — West Virginia, which appears to be a blowout, and Montana, where the race increasingly appears to be slipping away from Sen. Jon Tester. Those two wins alone would put the GOP in the majority. But in the other Senate races, Democratic nominees are surprisingly well positioned — they lead the polls in every battleground state and are running ahead of Kamala Harris’ pace. Even Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, one of the most precariously perched incumbents, continues to hold a narrow edge in a state Harris could lose by double digits. If Democrats held their losses to just two seats and could pick off just one Republican incumbent, the Senate is at 50-50. And if Harris wins, they would then hold the majority since the new vice president would cast the tie-breaking vote. It’s a bit of a long shot, of course. Texas is the Democrats’ white whale, and their statewide hopes there have been dashed over and over. The polarizing Cruz — who squeaked to reelection in 2018 — is still dealing with fallout from his appearance in Cancún in 2021 as Texas suffered from a devastating winter storm that took out power across the state. But he also cuts a huge profile in the state and isn’t taking the race for granted after his close shave six years earlier. Florida is another heavy lift. When Scott first won his seat in 2018, Democrats had a 257,000 voter registration advantage. Today, Republicans have an advantage of more than one million. An abortion referendum could boost Democratic performance, but the 2022 results are not encouraging: Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis won reelection in double-digit routs. In Nebraska, Democrats have their hopes up about an unusual candidate who has summarily rejected their endorsement. Osborn is an independent, pro-choice, pro-union, pro-gun, anti-immigration candidate who refuses to say which party he will caucus in if he knocks off Fischer. A SurveyUSA poll released Tuesday has Osborn up by one point, leading 45 percent to 44 percent, which has Democrats dreaming about a potential upset in a state that Trump should carry by around 20 points. Throughout his campaign, Osborn has attacked Fischer for taking corporate cash , highlighting how she’s gotten 10 times richer in the Senate and arguing she doesn’t show up for her constituents — he notes she hasn’t held a public town hall in the sparsely populated state since 2017. As an independent, Osborn has been able to cherry pick popular policies from both parties without appearing beholden to either. He’s also trying to tap into something much more popular in Nebraska than any politician or party — college football. The dominant color on his website is almost indistinguishable from the color on the uniforms of the University of Nebraska, and his “O” logo looks like the “N” on Nebraska’s helmets. Then there’s the matter of the name; Osborn (almost) shares a last name with Tom Osborne, the Hall of Fame Cornhuskers football coach who became a Republican politician after his coaching career — he served in the House from 2001 to 2007. The history of these sorts of races doesn’t look good for Osborn. In a 2014 Senate battle in Kansas, months of polls placed independent Greg Orman within striking distance of Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. Then undecideds in the red state broke strongly for Roberts, who ended up claiming victory by over 10 points. The odds are against Democrats winning any of these three seats — it’s not uncommon for a seemingly locked down Senate race to suddenly appear close before voters revert to their familiar voting patterns in the final days of an election. And Republicans have their own longshot hope — Maryland — where the polls suggest a closer-than-expected Senate race. A Democratic defeat in that blue-state stronghold would be devastating to the party. What it all tells us is that the Senate outcome remains a work in progress. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s authors at cmahtesian@politico.com and cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie and @calder_mchugh .
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