 | BY CALDER MCHUGH | Presented by |  |
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California Gov. Gavin Newsom in the spin room at Georgia Institute of Technology's McCamish Pavilion in Atlanta on Thursday shortly before former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden met in a debate hosted by CNN. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | OUT OF THE WOODWORK — After a debate performance that had prominent Democrats calling him “toast” and advocating for an open convention, President Joe Biden showed no signs of wavering at a North Carolina rally today. “I don’t debate as well as I used to,” he admitted to a crowd of cheering supporters. “[But] I know like millions of Americans know, when you get knocked down you get back up.” Any discussion of replacing Biden with another Democrat begins and ends with the president’s own inclinations — the only plausible way to remove him from the ticket is if he steps aside and releases the delegates pledged to him at August’s Democratic National Convention (or has a health issue that leaves him physically unable to continue). There’s no indication as of yet that it’s a real consideration for Biden’s camp. No Democratic members of Congress have attached their names to a direct call for Biden to drop out, though some have begun to equivocate, calling it “the president’s decision ” or “strike one .” Still, with the fallout from his performance continuing to ripple, the natural posture for Democrats — and in particular the Biden campaign itself — is to project confidence in public, even if hard conversations are happening behind the scenes. But if Biden does decide to reverse course and bow out of the race, it would create a scramble unlike anything in modern American politics. The process of 3,936 DNC delegates voting for an alternative would be chaos. But all sorts of prominent Democrats around the country, many of whom plan to run for president in 2028, might not want to let a good crisis go to waste. Who has an actual, logistical chance at this longshot scenario? Any discussion has to start with Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris. The two don’t have a notably close relationship, but Harris was deployed after the debate to defend Biden, and she answered some of the questions, in particular those on abortion, with the kind of verve that Biden lacked on stage. She’s his stated successor and has strong support among pockets of the Democratic Party. But her approval ratings have often lagged behind Biden’s over the course of his presidency, and after her 2020 campaign in the Democratic primary blew up spectacularly before Iowa, many within the party have little trust that she would be a significantly stronger alternative. Elsewhere within the Biden administration, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg had a surprisingly strong run during the 2020 Democratic primaries, turning himself from a small city mayor into a nationally recognized figure. He’s also been one of Biden’s chief defenders in hostile environments like on Fox News. But he’s mishandled some high profile crises, most notably in East Palestine, when he let Donald Trump make it to the crash site before him or Biden. Among the Democrats’ bench of potential candidates who didn’t participate in the 2020 primaries, a group of governors stand out — California’s Gavin Newsom, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker, Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro and Maryland’s Wes Moore. Newsom has cut a national profile as a prominent surrogate for Biden (including after last night’s debate) and has raised significant cash for the president . But he has his own list of problems, beginning with his Covid-era love of fancy California eateries that made him look like an out-of-touch hypocrite. He was so reviled by a slice of the state that he faced a recall effort in 2021, and a group of his opponents are trying to put together another recall this year. Whitmer has overperformed expectations in Michigan, but she has little national experience, and she owes much of her success in Michigan to relationships she built over many years . Pritzker has a lot of cash, and his last name is plastered across philanthropic efforts, buildings and various wings of museums across Illinois. But Republicans would assuredly go after him for the well-trodden issue of crime in Chicago — despite a complicated picture of how crime rates have changed since he’s become governor — and how he’s dealt with the migrant crisis. There are whispers that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott plans to bus more migrants to Chicago ahead of the DNC; Abbott certainly won’t be shy if Pritzker ascends quickly to the nomination. Shapiro and Moore are both first term governors; how they’d respond to a national political campaign is even more unknown than many of the others on the list. Then there’s Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio or Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, but nominating either would cede a crucial Senate seat to Republicans — both represent states with Republican governors who could replace them. Democrats would of course sacrifice a Senate seat to keep Trump out of the White House, but without victory assured, they might not want to gamble on losing both. Feeling nostalgic? How about a rerun — Sen. Bernie Sanders vs. Hillary Clinton. Go full Hollywood? Why not Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson (who said he’d stay out of 2024), Oprah or Matthew McConaughey? And if the above looks delusional, take it as a Nightly guarantee — if Biden does drop out, a name will emerge at some point that’s even more absurd. Herein lies the problem for Biden. If he really does believe he can’t go on, there’s no obvious answer to who’s next. After watching the debate on Thursday, some Democrats might answer “anyone”. The Biden camp may well attempt to lean into his political strengths and pray that days like Thursday don’t continue. If they do, strikes two and three might just cross the plate. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh .
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| | A message from Ford Foundation: A lack of high-speed internet impedes economic growth across the U.S., especially in the heartland of the nation. With the support of the Ford Foundation, innovative leaders are expanding high-quality internet access to ensure farmers, educators, businesses, and all communities can thrive in modern day society. Learn more. | | | | | WHAT'D I MISS — SCOTUS EDITION |
| — Supreme Court shifts power over federal regulations from agencies to judges: The Supreme Court today killed off a judicial doctrine that has protected many federal regulations from legal challenges for decades — delivering a major victory for conservatives and business groups seeking to curb the power of the executive branch. The 6-3 decision divided the court along ideological lines. Known as Chevron deference, the old Reagan-era doctrine required judges to defer to agencies’ “reasonable” interpretations of “ambiguous” federal laws. Its fallout will make it harder for President Joe Biden or any future president to act on a vast array of policy areas, from wiping out student debt and expanding protections for pregnant workers to curbing climate pollution and regulating artificial intelligence. — Supreme Court limits scope of obstruction law used in Jan. 6 prosecutions: In another opinion released today, the Supreme Court narrowed the scope of a federal law used to charge hundreds of people with obstructing Congress during the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, jeopardizing many of those criminal cases. The 6-3 ruling — in which two justices crossed the court’s usual ideological lines — may force federal prosecutors to reconsider charges in dozens of pending cases, and it could require judges to resentence some defendants already sent to prison for interfering with Congress’ effort to certify Joe Biden’s victory in the last presidential contest. About 350 of the 1,400-plus charged Jan. 6 defendants have faced obstruction charges, which are now thrown into doubt by the court. — Steve Bannon to report to prison Monday: Steve Bannon is going to prison. The Supreme Court today rejected a last-ditch bid by the longtime Donald Trump ally to stave off a four-month sentence for defying subpoenas from the Jan. 6 select committee three years ago. The high court’s decision — a one-sentence denial without explanation — means the influential right-wing podcaster will head to prison on July 1, with his release date just days before the November 2024 election. — Supreme Court makes it easier for cities to clear homeless encampments: The conservative-majority Supreme Court ruled today that states and local governments are allowed to remove tent encampments as homelessness has become a top concern of voters. The 6-3 decision reversed a lower court ruling that severely limited how local leaders can respond as tents pitched in parks, under freeways and across sidewalks became increasingly ubiquitous symbols of the crisis.
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| | THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY . | | | | | | | STAY DOWN — House Democrats are openly urging the president to avoid a second televised debate . The two have another debate scheduled for September hosted by ABC News. “If it’s the same debate questions, and it’s the same process, I probably wouldn’t do it. I’m not his advisor, but I probably wouldn’t advise him to do it,” said Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio). Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.) went further: “We didn’t even need this debate. Quite frankly, we know exactly who Trump is. And we know exactly who Joe Biden is. You have a debate so that you can learn about a candidate. There’s nothing else to know.” Rep. Troy Carter (D-La.) said that “if there’s going to be a second debate, the terms and the rules of engagement have to be changed.” Biden’s team has indicated that it has no plans to change this fall’s scheduled debate with Trump. IT HAPPENS — Former President Barack Obama offered public support for Biden after a rough debate performance. “Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know,” Obama said in a post on X, a reference to his own first debate with 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney, which was widely viewed as a victory for the Republican. The former president pointed to bigger contrasts between Biden and Trump, echoing a strategy other Democrats have made since Thursday’s debate. TAKING THE 25TH — House Speaker Mike Johnson said today that Biden’s Cabinet should discuss invoking the 25th Amendment in the wake of Thursday’s debate. Johnson, asked about calls from within his own conference for the amendment to be invoked, said that “there’s a lot of people asking about” it, but that it was up to members of Biden’s Cabinet.
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The pier meant to distribute aid to Gaza. | Leo Correa/AP | PIER PROBLEMS — The pier built by the U.S. military to bring aid to Gaza has been removed due to weather, and the U.S. is considering not reinstalling it unless the aid begins flowing out into the population again, several U.S. officials said today. While the military has helped deliver desperately needed food through the pier, the vast majority of it is still sitting in the adjacent storage yard because of the difficulty that agencies have had moving it to areas in Gaza where it is most needed, and that storage area is almost full. The pier has been used to get more than 19.4 million pounds, or 8.6 million kilograms, of food into Gaza but has faced multiple setbacks. Rough seas damaged the pier just days into its initial operations, forcing the military to remove it temporarily for repairs and then reinstall it.
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| | | YOU’RE IN OR YOU’RE OUT — The lifecycle of a trend is shorter than ever. With all kinds of access to new information — and ways to buy products online and have them show up at your door the next day — something that might have been cool or “in” among a certain subset is “out” within months, weeks or even days. This drives fast fashion and helps to keep social media vibrant. So, in time for summer, staff at The Verge are predicting what’s “In” and what’s “Out” . Enjoy the list here, and assume that all of these thoughts will be wrong by the fall.
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On this date in 1914: Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary and his wife, Czech Countess Sophie Chotek, leave a reception in Sarajevo, Bosnia. The couple were assassinated later that day, setting off a series of events that led to World War I. | AP | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here .
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