Wednesday, June 26, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: How Trump’s criminal conviction will shape the first debate


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BY ANKUSH KHARDORI

Presented by 

Ford Foundation

Anti-Trump demonstrators gather to celebrate Donald Trump's conviction near Manhattan Criminal Court.

Anti-Trump demonstrators gather to celebrate Donald Trump's conviction near Manhattan Criminal Court on May 30. | David Dee Delgado/Getty Images

ONE ON ONE — When Joe Biden and Donald Trump meet on Thursday night in Atlanta for their first 2024 debate, they will be joined by a very large elephant in the debate hall: Trump’s newly minted status as a felon .

The issue is almost certain to come up during the 90-minute debate, which will be moderated by CNN’s Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. The event will provide the candidates with their most prominent platform to date to address Trump’s criminal conviction in Manhattan last month — a legitimately new electoral issue in the annals of American presidential politics. It will be the first time that either Trump or Biden will confront the prospect of sustained questioning on the subject, as well as the first time that the two men will have the opportunity to speak directly to one another about it.

Make no mistake about it: There appear to be real political stakes here — particularly among the much-coveted independent and swing voters who may effectively decide the election — so the candidates’ approach to the subject will be worth watching closely. According to polling data recently conducted by Ipsos for POLITICO Magazine , for instance, 21 percent of independents said that Trump’s conviction made them less likely to support him and that it would be an important factor in their vote.

Both candidates, however, have struggled to land on a coherent and accurate message about the conviction for voters, albeit in very different ways and for very different reasons.

As the person who was convicted, Trump’s options are naturally limited. His approach thus far has been to loudly complain and to wildly mislead audiences about what actually happened. He has repeatedly claimed — falsely — that he was railroaded by a rigged political prosecution that was engineered by Biden and the Justice Department. (The case was brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.)

Despite the falsehoods, the message — which has been echoed by Republican politicians and conservative media — appears to have had some traction with a sizable chunk of the American public. For instance, when we asked respondents in our poll whether they thought Biden was “directly involved” in the decision to bring the case, a majority of them either said yes or that they did not know (29 percent and 25 percent of respondents, respectively).

One big question headed into the debate, of course, is how aggressively Trump will push this line and how forcefully and effectively Biden — and perhaps even the moderators themselves — will address it.

Another is whether Trump will have new material, particularly since, on Tuesday, the judge who presided over the trial liberated Trump from some of the restrictions of the gag order that has been in place. Trump will now be free to attack the trial witnesses and the jury that convicted him.

The Biden campaign, for their part, approached the case warily in the run-up to and then throughout the trial.

Indeed, on the eve of the verdict, a senior communications adviser on the Biden campaign complained that television networks had been devoting too much time to “coverage about a trial that impacts one person: Trump.” He went on to argue that there was a “disconnect between the ivory tower/beltway know-it-alls and voters” and that “Donald Trump’s trials don’t impact real people. They impact Donald Trump.”

The preemptive surrender on this issue frustrated many Democrats , some of whom found it difficult to understand why the campaign would not try to maximize the political upside of an event that many viewed as an obvious political gift .

Since then, the campaign appears to have shifted its approach at least slightly — most notably, in the form of a campaign ad released last week that took direct aim at Trump over the prosecution.

The ad posited a contrast “between a convicted criminal who’s only out for himself and a president who’s fighting for your family.” It was an apparent attempt to frame Trump’s conviction as part of a broader — and conventional — campaign message about which of the two candidates is focused on advancing the interests of Americans as opposed to themselves.

It was a new iteration on an old theme, offering a synthesis of law and politics in an unprecedented moment in American politics. Whether it will be effective remains to be seen, but the debate will begin to show us how both candidates plan to address an issue that’s central to many voters’ minds.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at akhardori@politico.com .

 

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WHAT'D I MISS?

— Biden admin can’t be sued for pressuring social media companies to remove misinformation, Supreme Court rules: The Supreme Court today shot down a lawsuit against the Biden administration over its efforts to urge social media companies to take down alleged misinformation about Covid-19, election fraud and other topics. Two red states and five social media users do not have legal standing to sue various federal officials over their communications with the tech platforms, the court held in a 6-3 ruling. The court’s majority — which consisted of three conservative justices and three liberals — said that the role of the social media companies in establishing and enforcing their content-moderation policies meant the plaintiffs weren’t directly censored by the government.

MONTANA: DON'T BE BOUGHT! SENATOR JON 

TESTER has worked for MONTANA!

— Pro-Sheehy super PAC launches $4 million ad buy in Montana Senate race: Montana Republican Tim Sheehy is getting some key backup in his bid to oust Sen. Jon Tester . More Jobs, Less Government, a super PAC with ties to Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), is launching a $4 million TV and digital ad buy today that will run for about a month. A radio component will begin July 10. The campaign has four spots that connect Tester to both President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

— Supreme Court ‘inadvertently’ exposes opinion that would restore emergency abortion access in Idaho: Access to emergency abortions in Idaho might soon be restored if a Supreme Court decision briefly posted on its website today is finalized in the days ahead. The decision posted online shows that the justices voted 5-4 to dismiss the dispute from their docket, according to Bloomberg News, which first reported the appearance of the opinion. A court spokesperson confirmed that a “document” related to the Idaho abortion case had been “inadvertently” released, but stressed the decision isn’t yet official. The document has since been removed.

 

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NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

AUDITION TAPE — Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) all but auditioned to be vice president in a FOX & Friends interview that aired this morning , acknowledging he has been contacted by Donald Trump’s campaign and that he’d be somewhat disappointed if he isn’t on the ticket.

“I think they reached out to a lot of people, and I’m among them that basically said hey, send us some information,” Vance told FOX & Friends co-host Lawrence Jones alongside his wife, Usha Vance. “My best guess is they’re looking at me and they’re looking at a lot of other people too, and they’ll ask me if they ask me. And if they don’t, that’s fine.”

J.D. Vance, who appears to be one of three stand-outs on Trump’s vice presidential list, added that he was “human” and would feel “a little bit of disappointment” if he isn’t ultimately chosen by the former president. He said he’s satisfied with his current job and raising a family.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

Journalist Evan Gershkovich, accused of espionage in Russia, looks out from inside a glass defendants' cage prior to a hearing in Yekaterinburg's Sverdlovsk Regional Court.

Journalist Evan Gershkovich, accused of espionage in Russia, looks out from inside a glass defendants' cage prior to a hearing in Yekaterinburg's Sverdlovsk Regional Court today. | Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP via Getty Images

‘BOGUS ACCUSATION’ — The trial of American journalist Evan Gershkovich in Russia began today in the first espionage case against a Western journalist since the Cold War.

Gershkovich, a 32-year-old reporter for the Wall Street Journal, was detained in the city of Yekaterinburg in March last year.

He has spent the last 15 months in Lefortovo, a high-security prison in Moscow, but has now been transferred back to Yekaterinburg, some 1,500 kilometers east toward the Ural mountains, for the beginning of his closed-door trial.

Ahead of the hearing, journalists were given a rare glimpse of Gershkovich who appeared with a shaven head but looked to be in good form, casting several smiles in the direction of reporters.

In court documents, prosecutors several weeks ago accused Gershkovich of collecting “secret information” at a defense plant “under instructions from the CIA,” a charge which carries a 20-year prison sentence.

But the U.S. government and independent analysts say the Russian authorities are using the case and those of other Americans jailed in Russia on spurious charges to strong-arm Western countries to release prisoners which the Kremlin considers to be high-value assets.

“To even call it a trial, however, is unfair to Evan and a continuation of this travesty of justice that already has gone on for far too long,” Emma Tucker, editor in chief of Gershkovich’s employer, the Wall Street Journal, wrote in an open letter earlier this week.

“This bogus accusation of espionage will inevitably lead to a bogus conviction for an innocent man who would then face up to 20 years in prison for simply doing his job,” she added.

‘ATTEMPTED COUP’ — Armored vehicles rammed into the doors of Bolivia’s government palace today as President Luis Arce said the country faced an attempted coup , insisted he stands firm and urged people to mobilize.

In a video of Arce surrounded by ministers in the palace, he said: “The country is facing an attempted coup d’état. Here we are, firm in Casa Grande, to confront any coup attempt. We need the Bolivian people to organize.”

Arce confronted the general commander of the Army — Juan José Zúñiga, who appeared to be leading the rebellion — in the palace hallway, as shown on video on Bolivian television. “I am your captain, and I order you to withdraw your soldiers, and I will not allow this insubordination,” Arce said.

Zúñiga did not explicitly say he’s leading a coup, but in the palace, with bangs echoing behind him, he said the army was trying to “restore democracy and free our political prisoners.”

 

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NIGHTLY NUMBER

40 percent

The percentage that illegal migrant crossings along the U.S.-Mexico border has gone down since President Joe Biden clamped down on asylum earlier this month, administration officials said today. Daily crossings have fallen below 2,400. That’s the lowest level since Jan. 17, 2021, right before the president took office.

RADAR SWEEP

OVERDOSING AND ONLINE — Children who are overdosing from pills laced with fentanyl found online are frequently getting them through Snapchat , the photo sharing app that is also clandestine with users’ data (and functions through messages automatically disappearing). The kids find dealers through the app, who then teach them to use PayPal and will deliver them pills. But in the midst of a spike in overdose deaths due to fentanyl, some parents’ of affected children are fighting back — trying to retrace their kids’ steps and pointing the finger at Snapchat as an enabler. Paul Solotaroff reports for Rolling Stone.

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 1993: Former President Richard Nixon wipes his face as funeral services begin for his wife, former first lady Pat Nixon, in Yorba Linda, Calif.

On this date in 1993: Former President Richard Nixon wipes his face as funeral services begin for his wife, former first lady Pat Nixon, in Yorba Linda, Calif. | Eric Draper/AP

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