POLITICO Nightly: Why the VP debate looms so large

 

BY CALDER MCHUGH Presented by  Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks during the second stop of her nationwide Economic Opportunity Tour in Detroit on May 6. | Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images THE OTHER DEBATE — Just when it looked like we might not see a single presidential debate this year, the two presidential campaigns agreed Wednesday on two primetime debates between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Today, to less fanfare, came yet another development — the Biden campaign accepted an invitation from CBS for a vice presidential debate . The Trump campaign hasn’t yet agreed to the proposal. Trump, who is still vetting vice presidential prospects, has suggested he might not announce his pick until July. But if they ultimately accept one of the two dates offered — July 23 and August 13 — it would set the stage for one of the most consequential VP debates of all time — a showdown that stands not only to have a material effect on the outcome in November, but to shape each party in the decade to come. Vice presidential nominees — and their debates — don’t swing elections. But in this case, Harris and her GOP counterpart will face enhanced scrutiny because of the presidents they would serve. At 81 and 77, Biden and Trump are breaking the record for the oldest major party nominees for president — a mark that they themselves set four years ago. The actuarial tables alone suggest there’s a real chance that one of the two people of the vice presidential debate stage could be pressed into service as president sometime before 2029. Biden and Trump’s time atop the political scene has also provided Americans with clarity about who they are — and most voters are not pleased with what they see. Biden’s approval rating stands at 38.8 percent , while only 41.3 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of Trump . With opinions of Biden and Trump largely baked in — their strengths and faults have been on display for years — neither can afford a veep who is anything but an unalloyed asset on the campaign trail. The two possible dates that CBS has floated — July 23 and August 13 — only heighten the stakes of the debate. A July 23 debate would take place the week after the Republican National Convention concludes. If Trump names his nominee at the convention, as he has suggested, his pick would have to prepare a convention speech and immediately turn their attention to debate prep against a sitting vice president with extensive debating experience, including against then-Vice President Mike Pence in 2020. There would be no time for an expansive post-convention rollout tour. A poor debate performance out of the gate could prove devastating, blunting whatever momentum Republicans have coming out of the convention and immediately souring the prospective veep’s relationship with Trump. A dominant performance, on the other hand, could press the GOP ticket’s advantage and put Democrats in a hole in advance of their mid-August convention. An August 13 debate, which would take place the week before Democrats descend on Chicago, would ratchet up the pressure on Harris. A poor showing would cast a pall over the Democratic convention and make Democrats even more nervous about pulling off their convention with the prospect of chaotic protests looming. A commanding performance from Harris would go a long way towards assuaging concerns about the ticket from party insiders. Both prospective VP debate dates are also smack in between Trump and Biden’s own two debates. Whoever comes out behind in the first presidential debate will be asking their vice president to stop the bleeding. Is there any doubt that each candidate at the top of the ticket is more than capable of having a disastrous performance that forces their veep into damage control mode? The 2024 election isn’t the only reason why the veep debate looms so large. Regardless of who is the November victor, they’ll only be able to serve one term as president — positioning their vice president as the party frontrunner for the 2028 nomination. Democrats still harbor doubts about Harris. Her own approval rating currently sits at 38.2 percent . Her 2020 primary campaign didn’t inspire confidence. A convincing performance in a debate would not only bolster the Biden ticket, it could give her an edge among all the Democratic prospects already being floated for 2028. Add to that her leading role on abortion rights — a defining issue for the party in the post-Dobbs era — and she could suddenly become a much more formidable primary contender than she looks at the moment. The GOP nominee is in a similar position. A strong showing puts them in Trump’s good graces — at least for the time being — and could give them an early inside track at capturing the MAGA wing in 2028. Laying an egg in their first real appearance as VP, by contrast, would likely infuriate Trump and consign his veep pick to mop up duty for the remainder of the campaign. VP debates are usually remembered as curiosities or not central to the race — the only moment that stuck in most voters’ minds from the last one was a fly landing on Pence’s head. This one has all the makings of something a lot more lasting — if it happens at all. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh .   A message from Safety Runs First: ADVANCING EQUINE SAFETY IN HORSERACING: Thoroughbred racing is applying unprecedented resources to protect the wellbeing of our horses. For the first time ever, all horses now run under the same safety and anti-doping rules, overseen by the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA). Advanced diagnostic technologies and big data add a new layer of protection. Combining uniform rules and hands-on care with the latest technologies ensures safety always runs first. To learn more visit SafetyRunsFirst.com.   TRUMP ON TRIAL THE ‘REVENGE’ THESIS — Donald Trump’s defense team is seeking to portray star prosecution witness Michael Cohen as so maniacally focused on sending Trump to prison that his testimony can’t be trusted. Defense attorney Todd Blanche spent the early portion of this morning’s proceedings regaling the jury with snippets of Cohen’s “Mea Culpa” podcast in which Cohen expresses almost manic delight at the thought of Trump going to prison. “He is about to get a taste of what I went through, and I promise you it is not fun,” Cohen said of Trump in one clip. The thought of Trump in jail “fills me with delight and sadness all at the same time. Sadness I say because what an embarrassment it is to the office of the presidency,” Cohen said in another clip. Blanche hammered on this theme repeatedly — punctuated by the jarring audio of a loud and brash Cohen, who sounds nothing like the subdued version who has been testifying in court all week — as he seeks to undermine Cohen’s credibility to the jury. IT’S ALL ON TAPE — Cohen testified that he made 95 recordings on his phone of his conversations with reporters, as well as his encounters with former CNN chief Jeff Zucker and Donald Trump. Cohen said he never told any of those he recorded that he was doing so, including Trump, who was his client at the time. Blanche asked if it’s ethical for a lawyer to record his client . “It’s not ethical,” Cohen replied, but noted that there is a so-called crime-fraud exception to the rule that attorney-client communications are confidential. It was a remark that appeared to be a dig at Trump and, perhaps, Blanche. When Blanche balked at what he believed was Cohen’s suggestion that his recording of Trump would fall under the crime-fraud exception, Cohen clarified that he wasn’t asserting that. “You asked if there are exceptions, and I said yes, the crime-fraud exception rule,” Cohen said. “So you surreptitiously recorded your client so that you could play a privileged conversation for a third party?” Blanche asked. “That’s correct,” Cohen replied. SOMEONE HELD UP A SIGN: BOOTLICKERS MORE REINFORCEMENTS — Rep. Matt Gaetz led nearly a dozen Republican colleagues today in defending Donald Trump in front of news cameras as part of the latest cadre of loyalists accompanying the former president at the courthouse. The Florida Republican blasted the charges as “the Mr. Potato Head doll of crimes, where they had to stick together a bunch of things that did not belong together.” The group, made up of members belonging to and adjacent to the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, spoke in the park across street from the courthouse as pro-Trump demonstrators cheered for them and anti-Trump protesters jeered at them.   THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. 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Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY .     WHAT'D I MISS? — White House to Republicans: No audio of Biden’s interview with Hur: President Joe Biden has asserted executive privilege to block House committees from obtaining audio recordings of his own interviews with special counsel Robert Hur about Biden’s handling of classified documents. The White House counsel’s office notified House GOP investigators of the move hours before Republicans were expected to recommend holding Attorney General Merrick Garland in contempt of Congress for refusing to hand over the audio. Rather than changing the GOP’s plan, the privilege assertion sparked a wave of outrage from Republicans, who are moving forward with their planned contempt vote. — Supreme Court upholds CFPB funding, saving agency : The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s funding stream, which bypasses the congressional appropriations process, is constitutional, the Supreme Court ruled today, saving the controversial agency from a potentially devastating blow . The high court, in a 7-2 decision, rejected an argument by payday lenders that Congress’s decision more than a decade ago to insulate the CFPB from the annual budget debate ran afoul of the Constitution’s clause concerning appropriations of federal money. The closely watched case had threatened to not only curtail the power of the bureau but also to disrupt financial markets by casting doubt on the functions of other independently funded regulators across the government. — Columbia University faculty pass vote of no confidence in president: Arts and Sciences faculty at Columbia University today passed a vote of no confidence in the institution’s president, Minouche Shafik — a sign of growing dissent over her controversial handling of pro-Palestinian demonstrations. Out of the 709 professors who voted for the resolution — introduced by the Columbia chapter of the nonprofit American Association of University Professors — 65 percent expressed no confidence in Shafik, while 29 percent voted against it and 6 percent abstained. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 SELF-FUNDING VEEP — Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s running mate is making an $8 million cash infusion into their independent bid for the White House , reports POLITICO. The contribution from Nicole Shanahan, which the tech attorney and entrepreneur announced at a comedy show and campaign fundraiser on Wednesday night in Nashville, Tennessee, is more than double what the campaign raised from donors in March, the latest month available for campaign financial disclosures. BIDEN OUTREACH — Brown v. Board plaintiffs and their family members were invited to the White House today to meet with President Biden in honor of the landmark school desegregation ruling’s 70th anniversary, writes Axios. It was one of several events this week where Biden will appear before mostly Black voters . This group has historically backed him as a candidate — but could be less supportive of him this year. A pivotal moment will come this weekend, when Biden is set to deliver the commencement address at Morehouse College, an HBCU in Atlanta, Georgia, one of several key swing states that Biden won over then-President Trump in 2020. The president will also speak Friday at an NAACP event at the National Museum of African American History and Culture in D.C., also commemorating the Brown v. Board anniversary.   A message from Safety Runs First:   AROUND THE WORLD Russia's President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping attend a concert marking the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and China today. | Pool photo by Alexander Ryumin/Sputnik TOGETHER AGAIN — Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping today reaffirmed their “no-limits” partnership that has deepened as both countries face rising tensions with the West, and they criticized U.S. military alliances in Asia and the Pacific region, reports The Associated Press. At their summit in Beijing, Putin thanked Xi for China’s proposals for ending the war in Ukraine, which have been rejected by Ukraine and its Western supporters as largely following the Kremlin’s line. Putin’s two-day state visit comes as Russian forces are pressing an offensive in northeastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv region in the most significant border incursion since the full-scale invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022. China claims to take a neutral position in the conflict, but it has backed the Kremlin’s contentions that Russia was provoked into attacking Ukraine by the West, and it continues to supply key components needed by Moscow for weapons production.   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST:  Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today .     NIGHTLY NUMBER 11 The number of Senate Democrats who defied Joe Biden and passed a measure today that would undo SEC guidance on cryptocurrency accounting . The Senate voted 60-38 to back the effort, which would undo a rule that directs companies to mark digital assets as liabilities on their balance sheets. The White House has already said Biden would veto it, his first rejection of a standalone crypto measure. RADAR SWEEP BECOME THE CATFISH — On the subscription site OnlyFans, users pay for nude photographs or videos of users — but they also pay for the ability to chat with them. That’s what’s sold as the difference between that site and other pornography that’s free on the internet. But users are rarely actually chatting with who they think they are. Instead, OnlyFans creators often have people who manage their accounts — who in turn farm out the work of talking to their many adoring fans to low wage workers who make literal pennies for their responses. In order to get a peek into that life, Brendan Koerner posed as someone interested in that job, and went through the training process to get hired to reply to such messages. It makes for a fascinating peek into a huge industry preying on both low-wage workers and people naively believing that they are chatting with someone they are not. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1996: Rev. Tom Grey, spokesperson for the National Coalition against Legalized Gambling, holds up a map of the United States displaying the battles he has fought against gambling expansion at a news conference at the California Attorney General’s office in Los Angeles. | Chris Pizzello/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   A message from Safety Runs First: BRINGING RACING INTO THE 21ST CENTURY: Three years ago, Congress created the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) to enhance the safety and integrity of Thoroughbred racing. Under HISA, for the first time in the sport’s 200-year history, every horse across the country is now running under the same safety and anti-doping rules. In addition, HISA is partnering with leading technology providers, including AWS and Palantir, to create new data-enabled tools to assist veterinary screenings. These tools add a new layer of protection by helping identify at-risk horses before they reach the starting gate. The industry is also investing in the latest technologies for diagnostic imaging and wearable biometric devices. Combining enhanced, uniform rules, data analytics and cutting-edge technologies is improving safety outcomes and enhancing the ecosystems of care at every track nationwide, ensuring safety always runs first. To learn more visit SafetyRunsFirst.com.     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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