Thursday, May 16, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: Putin’s shrinking circle of friends



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BY GABRIEL GAVIN

Presented by 

Safety Runs First

Traditional Russian wooden nesting dolls depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at a gift shop in Moscow.

Traditional Russian wooden nesting dolls depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at a gift shop in Moscow on March 11, 2024. | Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images

THE EASTERN FRONT — Russian President Vladimir Putin will touch down in Beijing Thursday as part of a state visit that he is hoping will help shore up his country’s wartime economy in the face of Western sanctions.

It’s the second time the longtime strongman has flown to China in less than a year, and comes just a week after he was sworn in for an unprecedented fifth term in office following an election widely understood to have been rigged in his favor.

The message is clear: for Russia, the wind is blowing East.

Ahead of the visit, Putin declared that ties between the two nations have reached “unprecedented” levels, only two years after they formally announced a “no limits” partnership.

Now, analysts say stronger trade ties, energy sales and access to military hardware are likely to be high on the agenda as Moscow continues to grapple with the consequences of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

While Putin is set to get a warm welcome from his counterpart, Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping, he’s likely to find his hosts are less interested in his lofty notions of an anti-Western alliance, and more focused on what they can get out of him in his hour of need.

“China is very much a pragmatic country still — it gives off ideological noises, but it has almost a purely transactional approach,” Ian Garner, a historian of Russian culture and war propaganda, told Nightly.

“Right now, it’s in [China’s] interests to use Russia as a wedge to frustrate the West and achieve its own economic ambitions, but the second it’s not in their own interests, they will drop Putin like a stone.”

Cracks are already beginning to show in the relationship between the two Eurasian powers. For years, Moscow has been talking about a potential pivot towards Asia, insisting Europe needed it more than it ever needed Europe. But Western embargoes on Russian fossil fuels have created a huge dent in the Kremlin’s budget, one that Beijing simply can’t fill.

While Russian deliveries of natural gas to China peaked late last year, a long-mooted infrastructure project, designed to help replace EU customers and branded the Power of Siberia 2, has faced serious delays and an apparent lack of interest from Beijing. With sluggish economic growth of its own, China has little need for even more Russian gas and, if it buys it at all, will only do so at a major discount — something Putin’s inner circle has glossed over when they promise a new era of economic relations.

There are other reasons Xi might be hesitant to ride to Putin’s rescue. Last week, the U.S. Department of Commerce imposed a new round of almost 300 sanctions against Chinese firms that it says help Moscow’s military-industrial complex circumvent restrictions on sensitive technologies. While Beijing has claimed the measures “lack international legal basis and authorization from the United Nations Security Council,” it is unlikely to want to risk further Western ire without clear reward.

Far from being an ideological bedfellow, Beijing has even sought to rein in an increasingly belligerent and paranoid Russian government. On the eve of the visit, the Kremlin publicly backed Chinese calls for an end to the war in Ukraine, including opening peace talks.

While Moscow evidently isn’t ready to do any deal with Kyiv that isn’t entirely on its own terms, the move shows just how much pressure the country is under to show it isn’t trying to drag Beijing into a ‘forever war’ that it wants no part of. And, as the circle of leaders willing to host Putin continues to shrink, Xi’s power in the relationship continues to grow — as does the sense that it’s Putin who is becoming bad for business.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at ggavin@politico.eu or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @GabrielCSGavin .

 

A message from Safety Runs First:

ADVANCING EQUINE SAFETY IN HORSERACING: Thoroughbred racing is applying unprecedented resources to protect the wellbeing of our horses. For the first time ever, all horses now run under the same safety and anti-doping rules, overseen by the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA). Advanced diagnostic technologies and big data add a new layer of protection. Combining uniform rules and hands-on care with the latest technologies ensures safety always runs first. To learn more visit SafetyRunsFirst.com.

 
TRUMP ON TRIAL

ON HOLD — The Trump trial was once again paused, as has become customary on Wednesdays throughout the trial.

GETTING IN LINE — A large House GOP group is discussing a trip to New York to back up Donald Trump at his hush money trial, according to four Republicans familiar with the matter — joining a growing GOP trend.

Those lawmakers considering a Thursday visit, which is not yet finalized, include a chunk of the House Freedom Caucus, two of those people told POLITICO, granted anonymity to discuss fluid discussions. Members of that conservative group are being particularly tight-lipped in case a busy House schedule this week delays their plans.

Roughly 16 people from the House Freedom Caucus are eyeing a trip to New York, one of those people said. Chair Bob Good (R-Va.), whose primary opponent has made Good’s initial backing of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis a wedge issue in the race, is among those included in the discussions, according to that person. “Every Republican should go support President Trump,” said Good, who declined to comment on whether he was making the trip and whether he has spoken to the former president about attending.

 

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WHAT'D I MISS?

— Congress clears major aviation policy bill, after months of delays: The House voted today to send the biggest aviation bill in five years to President Joe Biden’s desk . The bill, H.R. 3935, cleared on a 387-26 vote, would inject $105 billion into the Federal Aviation Administration over five years and guide policy for everything from drones and air taxis to technology intended to help planes avoid runway collisions. It will also add five long-haul, round-trip flights a day to Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, despite objections from D.C.-area lawmakers. 

However, it contains no significant provisions to clamp down on oversight of Boeing, whose quality control problems have spiraled since a door panel blew off mid-air on one of its 737 MAX 9 jets in January.

— Bipartisan group of senators unveil long-awaited guidance on AI bills: A bipartisan group of senators has taken a critical step forward in regulating artificial intelligence , releasing a long-awaited, Chuck Schumer-endorsed “roadmap” for addressing AI that Congress could take up this term. The bipartisan working group, which consists of Schumer, Sens. Todd Young (R-Ind.), Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) and Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), has been developing the report for months, looking to outline areas of AI ripe for bipartisan regulation. The quartet hosted a number of AI briefings this term for senators, hoping to educate sometimes tech-averse lawmakers. Top line AI priorities in the report include: Boosting funding for AI innovation; tackling nationwide standards for AI safety and fairness; using AI to strengthen U.S. national security; addressing potential job displacement for U.S. workers caused by AI; tackling so-called “deepfakes” being used in elections, and “non-consensual distribution of intimate images”; ensuring that opportunities to partake in AI innovation reach schools and companies.

— Lawmakers blast FDIC chief over toxic workplace: FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg faced a bipartisan grilling on Capitol Hill today over a blistering report that found pervasive harassment and mistreatment of employees at the agency on his watch. Democrats blasted Gruenberg’s leadership and openly questioned whether he should stay at the agency. But they stopped short of joining Republicans in calling for his removal, which would imperil a crackdown on big banks and halt other pending financial rules opposed by the industry. Gruenberg appeared before lawmakers for the first time since the independent report last week portrayed a workplace culture that for years was rife with sexual misconduct, discrimination and other mistreatment of employees that managers did little to stop.

NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

DEBATE AGREEMENT — Having spent months avoiding direct engagement on when and where to debate, both Donald Trump and Joe Biden seemed to agree on a time and place in a matter of minutes today , setting up high-stakes showdowns in late June and mid September, reports POLITICO. The former president’s campaign announced that it accepted an invitation to debate the current president on CNN on June 27 and on ABC on September 10. Biden, having previously said that he had “received and accepted an invitation” from CNN then agreed to participate in ABC News’ forum, too.


SQUEEZED OUT Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is lashing out after being left out of the upcoming presidential debates between Joe Biden and Donald Trump that are scheduled for June and September, writes POLITICO. Kennedy, who is unlikely to meet the debate qualification requirements laid out by CNN, said in a social media post that the president and former president are “trying to exclude me from their debate because they are afraid I would win.”

RFK JR IS NOT ON BALLOTS! ALWAYS A WHINER!

excerpt: 

 He’s officially made the ballot in Michigan and is still attempting to qualify in other key states.

According to CNN’s rules, a candidate must be on the ballot in enough states to earn a majority of Electoral College votes by June 20.

Although the Kennedy campaign is making efforts to meet the state-by-state qualifications to get on the ballot, many of the states won’t certify the candidates who have qualified until later in the summer.

 

A message from Safety Runs First:

 
AROUND THE WORLD

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is transported from a helicopter by medics to a hospital in Banska Bystrica, Slovakia.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is transported from a helicopter by medics to a hospital in Banska Bystrica, Slovakia today. | AFP via Getty Images

‘ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT’ — Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico is in critical condition after he was shot five times following a government meeting .

“He is fighting for his life,” Defense Minister Robert Kaliňák told press outside the hospital where Fico is being operated on. “We are hoping that he is strong enough to make it.”

“He suffered a polytrauma,” Kaliňák said, adding that 59 year-old Fico has been in surgery for three and half hours. “It’s a really complicated health condition.” More detailed health information will be available later, Kaliňák said, adding that for now there is “no good news.”

The shooting shocked politicians in Europe, where such incidents are rare. World leaders including U.S. President Joe Biden and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen condemned the attack and sent their thoughts to Fico and his family.

Police identified the shooter as 71 year-old “Juraj C.” Witnesses alleged that after a government meeting, the attacker shouted to Fico to approach him, offering his hand, after which shots were fired.

According to local media reports, the shooter was a published poet and in his retirement worked for a security firm. Some government officials blamed the violence on Slovakia’s polarized political debate and climate of intolerance for differing viewpoints.

 

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NIGHTLY NUMBER

3.4 percent

The percentage that the consumer price index — one of the key measures of inflation — has risen over a 12-month period , according to a report from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics released today. Inflation eased slightly in April, beating estimates.

RADAR SWEEP

THIS LOOKS FAMILIAR — Formerly iconic streets in American cities around the country now look remarkably similar to one another. Trendy restaurant chains like Blue Bottle, Salt & Straw, Shake Shack and sweetgreen, to name a few, are all popping up right near each other in places that were once cultural landmarks for cities . These places are often convenient and deliver on their promise to deliver tasty or healthy meals. But they’ve also served to create a kind of cultural flatness around the country that didn’t used to exist — you might now get a remarkably similar dining experience on many streets in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco or Austin. Meghan McCarron writes about the trend and what it’s done to the country in Eater.

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 1944: U.S. soldiers pile huge rolls of wire fence at an army supply depot in England for the coming invasion of the European continent.

On this date in 1944: U.S. soldiers pile huge rolls of wire fence at an army supply depot in England for the coming invasion of the European continent. | AP

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A message from Safety Runs First:

BRINGING RACING INTO THE 21ST CENTURY: Three years ago, Congress created the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) to enhance the safety and integrity of Thoroughbred racing. Under HISA, for the first time in the sport’s 200-year history, every horse across the country is now running under the same safety and anti-doping rules. In addition, HISA is partnering with leading technology providers, including AWS and Palantir, to create new data-enabled tools to assist veterinary screenings. These tools add a new layer of protection by helping identify at-risk horses before they reach the starting gate.

The industry is also investing in the latest technologies for diagnostic imaging and wearable biometric devices. Combining enhanced, uniform rules, data analytics and cutting-edge technologies is improving safety outcomes and enhancing the ecosystems of care at every track nationwide, ensuring safety always runs first. To learn more visit SafetyRunsFirst.com.

 
 

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