Saturday, February 24, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: Biden’s ‘Uncommitted’ issue

 


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BY CALDER MCHUGH

Samra'a Luqman hands out fliers outside of the American Moslem Society Mosque in Dearborn Heights, Mich. to ask voters not to vote for President Joe Biden.

Samra'a Luqman (right) hands out fliers outside of the American Moslem Society Mosque in Dearborn Heights, Mich. to ask voters not to vote for President Joe Biden on Feb. 16, 2024. | Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

PROTEST AT THE POLLS — When President Joe Biden urged the Democratic National Committee in late 2022 to upend the primary calendar and elevate Michigan to early primary status, he was likely imagining the multi-racial coalition that had helped deliver him the presidency in 2020 coming together to launch him towards the general election.

Now, some of those same voters are causing his campaign grief — and could, depending on the results of Tuesday’s primary, do even more damage.

A group of progressives — many of whom are Arab American or have ties to Palestine — are vowing to vote “Uncommitted” on the Democratic primary line for president due to Biden’s continued support for Israel, a protest vote that would lay bare the depth of ill will towards the president on his left flank that’s been engendered by his response to the Israel/Hamas war.

A protest vote might not normally make much of a dent in an incumbent president’s reelection campaign. But what makes this situation potentially problematic for Biden is that there are 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 who claim Middle East or North African descent in Michigan, largely concentrated around Detroit and in the suburb of Dearborn. These communities are numerous and politically active enough that the state even provides voter registration and absentee vote applications in Arabic .

A dedicated number of these voters — the good majority of whom have previously voted for Democrats — are at the leading edge of a campaign to vote “Uncommitted.” Depending on how many of them vote that way, Biden — already riding low in the polls — could suffer a significant embarrassment, generating another round of hand-wringing about his prospects in November.

Listen to Michigan, the group organizing the effort, is setting a modest goal of 11,000 extra voters to go Uncommitted — the margin of Donald Trump’s victory in the state in 2016. But around 20,000 Michiganders have voted on the “Uncommitted” line in recent Democratic presidential primaries without any organized effort at all. So any number above that would give a sense of how deep the unrest runs.

The activists leading the “Uncommitted” effort are not the first group to attempt to send a message to Biden through the primary process this year. In New Hampshire, a late campaign to write in “ceasefire” on the ballot largely failed to get off the ground and only resulted in around 1,500 “ceasefire” votes among well over 100,000 total ballots cast. Biden ended up easing any doubts about his by piling up 64 percent of the vote as a write-in candidate.

But the Michigan effort is more organized and has garnered the backing of elected officials and other prominent names in the state.

The campaign has in part been spearheaded by Abraham Aiyash, the Michigan House majority leader, and it has the support of Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), who represents Dearborn in Congress. It also has the backing of filmmaker Michael Moore, a Michigan native who endorsed the “Uncommitted” ballot line on MSNBC Thursday evening , arguing that Biden’s “hugging [Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu]” and funding of the war has “turned young people against Biden.”

Notably, Moore has been a staunch backer of Biden’s domestic policy and has advocated strongly against former President Donald Trump. He still thinks Democratic voters in Michigan need to send Biden a message.

The problem for Biden is that signs of support for a protest vote are growing, not diminishing. The Uncommitted campaign has also grabbed the attention of other groups that are deeply frustrated with Biden policies. Dzovinar Hatsakordzian — a national board member of the Armenian National Committee of America — is urging Armenian Democrats in Michigan to vote “Uncommitted” because he “armed Azerbaijan’s genocide of Artsakh’s indigenous Armenians.” The ANCA has circulated graphics that read “Michigan’s Armenian voters will remember this November that Biden armed Azerbaijan and abandoned Armenians to genocidal killers.”

There are just under 20,000 Armenians in Michigan, only a fraction of whom will vote in the Democratic primary. In competitive primaries in 2020 and 2016 respectively, over 1.4 million people and around 1.2 million people voted in the primary. In the most recent Democratic presidential contest featuring an incumbent president, a 2012 caucus, 174,000 people voted in Michigan. This year, over 800,000 people have voted early so far across both the Democratic and Republican primaries in the state.

There’s little chance that “Uncommitted” bests the president. But the higher that number is, the higher the likelihood the result leaves a bruise. In part that’s because Biden himself sought to elevate Michigan’s stature on the primary calendar. But it’s also due to the state’s recent history of playing a high-profile role in the Democratic nomination process. In 2016, Michigan gave Bernie Sanders’ campaign some much needed life; four years later, the state all but wrapped up the nomination for Biden. This year, it’s set to prove that Biden either has enduring strength among both progressive and ethnic communities in Michigan or that he has a real problem on his hands.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh .

 

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WHAT'D I MISS?

— Trump moves to dismiss classified documents case: Donald Trump is asking a federal judge in Florida to throw out his criminal case for hoarding classified secrets at his Mar-a-Lago estate , offering a grab bag of arguments that the charges are legally faulty, that prosecutors have targeted him for political reasons and that the special counsel spearheading the case had no legal authority to bring it. Trump’s lawyers filed seven motions late Thursday aimed at derailing the case, in which he is charged with willfully retaining classified information after he left office and obstructing a federal investigation into his possession of those secrets.

— Progressive groups preemptively rip Biden over immigration executive actions: A major coalition of progressive groups today warned President Joe Biden not to go forward with a slew of executive actions designed to stem migration along the southern border. Those groups, totaling more than 150 international, national, state, local and faith-based entities, said in a letter to the White House that the policies under consideration — including an asylum ban between U.S. ports of entry — “emulate” the approach of the Trump administration and “extremist legislators.”

— Senate GOP urges its candidates to support IVF after Alabama ruling: The Senate GOP’s campaign arm today urged its candidates to publicly express their support for IVF treatment and condemn efforts to limit its accessibility. In a memo sent by National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Jason Thielman, the party’s campaign apparatus instructs candidates to “Clearly state your support for IVF and fertility-related services as blessings for those seeking to have children” and to “Publicly oppose any efforts to restrict access to IVF and other fertility treatments, framing such opposition as a defense of family values and individual freedom.”

NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

TRUMP SPEAKS ON IVF — Former President Donald Trump declared his support for in vitro fertilization treatment and called on Alabama lawmakers to preserve access to it after a ruling by the state’s high court forced hospitals there to stop offering the procedure. Trump addressed the issue in a post on Truth Social today, days after the Alabama court’s ruling declaring embryos are children. Democrats have sought to tie that decision to broader GOP efforts to restrict access to abortion since the reversal of Roe v. Wade. And President Joe Biden’s campaign has laid blame for the ruling squarely at the feet of Trump, noting that he has taken pride in the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn abortion protections.

TEAMSTERS GIVE TO RNC — The Teamsters’ political action committee broke decades of precedent last month when the union leadership voted to approve a $45,000 donation to the Republican National Committee ’s convention fund, NBC News reports. In recent years, Teamsters donations have been given primarily to Democrats. This year’s donation to the RNC convention fund marked the labor union’s pivot to large donations to both parties, though the vast majority of donations still flow to liberals.

The January vote to approve the donation is igniting frustration among some members, who in interviews with NBC News were blunt in expressing their disapproval of the move: "Disgusting." "Disheartening." "Playing footsie."

RETURN TO NORMALCY — Nikki Haley called for a return to normalcy in American politics as she portrayed Donald Trump as a major drag on the Republican Party while seeking to avoid a landslide drubbing in her home state’s presidential primary on Saturday, reports the Wall Street Journal.

“Donald Trump cannot win a general election,” the former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador told several hundred supporters here this afternoon, after saying the GOP needs to select someone with “moral clarity” who knows “the difference between right and wrong.”

She also suggested that Trump has shattered norms in American democracy.

AROUND THE WORLD

Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin are pictured in Switzerland.

President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin are pictured during the U.S.-Russia summit at Villa La Grange in Geneva, Switzerland. | Peter Klaunzer/Keystone via Getty Images

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT — President Joe Biden today announced more than 500 new sanctions on Russia and its war machine in the largest tranche of penalties since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago, POLITICO reports.

Biden followed through on a promise to further punish Russian President Vladimir Putin one week after opposition leader Alexei Navalny died in a Siberian prison. The sanctions — as well as those added today by the European Union — come one day before the second anniversary of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

“The American people and people around the world understand that the stakes of this fight extend far beyond Ukraine,” Biden said in a statement announcing the sanctions. “If Putin does not pay the price for his death and destruction, he will keep going. And the costs to the United States — along with our NATO Allies and partners in Europe and around the world — will rise.”

The bulk of the sanctions were already in the works for the invasion anniversary, though a few were added this week to target those involved in Navalny’s death at an Arctic penal colony. Biden met Thursday with Navalny’s widow and daughter in San Francisco and praised her late husband’s bravery.

“Russia’s financial sector, defense industrial base, procurement networks and sanctions evaders across multiple continents,” Biden said. “They will ensure Putin pays an even steeper price for his aggression abroad and repression at home.”

The Treasury Department will impose additional price cap sanctions that will make it more costly for Russia to get around sanctions, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told reporters in a Thursday night call previewing the sanctions. He touted the Biden administration’s price cap on Russian oil, saying that the Kremlin has invested money on trying to adapt to the sanctions and evade them.

GERMANY GREENLIGHTS POT — The German parliament passed a marijuana decriminalization bill today, setting up the country to eventually authorize legal sales to adults, reports POLITICO EUROPE. The legislation, part of an agreement by the country’s three-party coalition government, would legalize cannabis possession and home cultivation for adults and allow non-profit cannabis clubs to supply consumers.

"That’s the way that works. Away from punishment. Away from taboo. We have to face up to the problems," German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach said before the law was adopted this afternoon.

The vote has also been closely followed across the Atlantic. “It’s a historic moment,” said Omar Khan, a spokesperson for Canadian cannabis company High Tide. “Germany [will] become the first EU country and the second G7 country after Canada to legalize adult use.”

 

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NIGHTLY NUMBER

WARREN BUFFETT CALLED CRYPTO RAT POISON SQUARED FOR GOOD REASON 
It's unregulated, contributed to the collapse of at least one bank, was allowed to enter FDIC insured banks

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU BELIEVE!


$80 million

The amount of money that three crypto-affiliated Super PACs are planning to spend in the 2024 election cycle , campaign finance filings released this week confirm. That puts them among the top-spending outside groups this year.

RADAR SWEEP

LOOKING FRESH — In the midst of missile fire and worries about advancing Russian ground troops, daily life goes on in Ukraine. Nowhere is this more obvious than among Ukraine’s beauty salons , which continue to operate despite all kinds of difficult conditions. LuChe salon in Kyiv had its front windows destroyed by a bomb in January — it was open again the next day, operating temporarily from behind boarded up windows onto which the salon’s owner spray painted “we are open”. Author Sophia Panych asks for Allure whether beauty has a place in a society at war — and answers largely in the affirmative.

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 1945: U.S. Marines of the 28th Regiment, 5th Division, raise a U.S. flag atop Mt. Suribachi in Iwo Jima, Japan.

On this date in 1945: U.S. Marines of the 28th Regiment, 5th Division, raise a U.S. flag atop Mt. Suribachi in Iwo Jima, Japan. | Joe Rosenthal/AP

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