POLITICO Nightly: The AI disinformation wars

 

BY JOANNE KENEN President Joe Biden hands Vice President Kamala Harris the pen he used to sign a new executive order regarding artificial intelligence during an event in the White House on Oct. 30, 2023. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images APOCALYPSE WHEN — Artificial Intelligence will soon be, if it’s not already, better than humans at detecting disinformation, whether it’s about war, or health, or climate or elections. But AI will also be, if it’s not already, better than humans at creating disinformation. This quandary has some experts foreseeing an AI misinformation apocalypse, while others think the threat is overblown. Darren Linvill, co-director of the Media Forensic Hub at Clemson University, thinks the future is somewhere in between. He thinks of it as a speeded up, more automated version of information wars that have gone on for decades. “It’s still the same fundamental tension,” he said. “Bad guys are going to use computers to do their job…Good guys are going to use computers to try to counter the bad guys.” That doesn’t mean that AI won’t make things worse, or that disinformation isn’t pernicious — or that we’ve figured out how to prevent people from falling down rabbit holes of disinformation (or climb back out if they’ve already fallen). But AI, in Linvill’s view, doesn’t make the struggle over what is true a brand new challenge. AI will mean a “leap” in what’s possible on the dissemination of disinformation front. But Linvill said that doesn’t necessarily mean the distance between the bad guys and the good guys will become insurmountable. It’s sort of like a race where the cars are faster and more powerful than in the old days, but both sides have jazzy cars. So far, the disinformation that we’re already awash in isn’t primarily AI generated. We already have viral memes, deep fakes, and all sorts of harmful disinformation online. But AI certainly contributes to that; NewsGuard, a nonprofit which monitors disinformation, has identified hundreds of “unreliable” AI-generated news sites and many false narratives. What Linvill is focused on in the dawning AI age is the pace of creating, spreading and — on the good guy side, identifying — disinformation. And that pace has changed a lot. One classic disinformation episode, Operation INFEKTION, which he has studied , festered for years before it was uncovered, It was a 1983 report in an obscure publication in India called The Patriot, which said — falsely — that the virus that caused AIDS was a bioweapon created at Fort Detrick in Maryland. The Soviets’ KGB had created the Patriot some years earlier, and waited for the right moment to use it. The lie spread from the obscure publication to the fringe to more credible sources — a process called “narrative laundering.” But the origins of INFEKTION were not uncovered for years, until archives were opened after the collapse of the USSR. While AI can speed that up, it’s not wholly AI-dependent. Disinformation can already fly, if not at the speed of light, certainly at the speed of a post on X. “From the inception of social media, and attempts to moderate social media, the same fundamental tension existed that people used automated techniques to try to manipulate that system.” The sites, to various extents, also relied on automation to control it. “ AI is “just the next step in that automation,” he said. But right now, a scary image of a war zone online is more likely to be lifted from a video game than generated by AI and the fake “eyewitness” account on YouTube of some scandal isn’t necessarily AI produced either. AI may be part of it — but it’s not the full blossoming of the science fiction-ish AI nightmare scenarios that people worry about, he said. The reason people believe these false narratives even after they are debunked, whether created via AI or older methods, isn’t because of the technology. It’s because “within the communities that they were intended to bounce around, people wanted to believe them.” He does think AI generated disinformation will cause harm — but that harm won’t be equally distributed. His center has done research on older adults’ susceptibility to fraud and disinformation in the digital age. “My kids — they’ll probably be fine, because they’re going to understand it and be able to navigate it.,” he said. But his own generation — not so much. “We’re always creating new realities. It’s always going to be hard for somebody — in this case,” he said, “it’s probably going to be my generation.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @JoanneKenen .   GLOBAL PLAYBOOK IS TAKING YOU TO DAVOS! Unlock the insider's guide to one of the world's most influential gatherings as POLITICO's Global Playbook takes you behind the scenes of the 2024 World Economic Forum. Author Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground in the Swiss Alps, bringing you the exclusive conversations, shifting power dynamics and groundbreaking ideas shaping the agenda in Davos. Stay in the know with POLITICO's Global Playbook, your VIP pass to the world’s most influential gatherings. SUBSCRIBE NOW .     WHAT'D I MISS? — Conservative justices seem poised to weaken power of federal agencies: Conservative justices on the Supreme Court today pressed the Biden administration on whether ambiguous laws passed by Congress should be interpreted by judges , rather than by federal bureaucrats. The high court’s eventual ruling could hand courts — including the Supreme Court itself — more power to strike down regulations on health care, the environment, immigration and virtually all other policy areas that are administered by federal agencies. That would strip power from the executive branch and make it harder for Joe Biden and future presidents to defend their regulatory agendas against legal challenges. — Texas river border buoys to stay in place while 5th Circuit rehears case: A floating barrier in the Rio Grande erected by Texas to deter migrants will remain in place for now as an appeals court reconsiders earlier court rulings declaring the barrier illegal. The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals said today that it will rehear the case over Texas’s decision to implement a series of buoys on its river border with Mexico. A federal district judge had ordered the state in September to remove the controversial barrier, and a panel of the 5th Circuit Court upheld that in a 2-1 decision last month. — Judge threatens to kick Trump out of courtroom: A federal judge threatened to kick Donald Trump out of court today after the former president made repeated comments within earshot of the jury hearing a civil defamation trial against him. Trump muttered that the case is a “witch hunt,” among other similar comments, according to a lawyer for the writer E. Jean Carroll, who is suing Trump over derogatory comments he made about her while he was president. The episode prompted a stern rebuke from U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan, who repeatedly tussled with Trump and his lawyers during a testy courtroom session this morning. — Senate leaders race to pass stopgap spending bill before potential snowstorm: Congressional leaders working on an agreement to quickly pass a temporary funding patch are racing against a potential D.C. snowstorm , trying to avert a shutdown before the Friday weather threatens to sabotage their flights home. Senate leaders expect the funding extension, which would kick government spending deadlines into March, could pass their chamber soon as Thursday. But it’s still unclear how many amendment votes Republicans will want in exchange for the bill’s speedy passage. House leaders plan to take up the legislation quickly after it clears the Senate, and those lawmakers are hoping to avoid a Friday travel catastrophe as well. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 SAY SORRY — The White House chief of staff Jeff Zients called Asa Hutchinson today to apologize for the Democratic National Committee’s snarky comments on the former Arkansas Governor’s dropped bid. Hutchinson dropped out of the race after a sixth-place finish in the Iowa caucus. DNC spokesperson Sarafina Chitika responded to his exit “this news comes as a shock to those of us who could’ve sworn he had already dropped out.” NIKKI HALEY is a DIRTY ENERGY KOCH SOCK PUPPET - Bought & Paid For! NO ONE is scrutinizing her history! Why is she hiding her TAX RETURNS? NIKKI HALEY raised taxes as Governor. How about the $9 BILLION hole in the ground that RATE PAYERS are funding? No one is asking! There's far more! PLAY THE TAPE — Nikki Haley’s campaign released a new video today — first shared with POLITICO — that outlines past moments when Trump praised her . The two-minute compilation shows Trump thanking Haley for her work as governor of South Carolina and U.N. Ambassador during his administration. The release of the video comes as Trump is set to appear at a rally tonight in Portsmouth, N.H. and it appears to be an effort to preempt, what the Haley camp anticipates will be, attacks from the former president. PULLING THE PLUG — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is moving a majority of his campaign staff to South Carolina , and will head back tonight to his home state after attending two events in New Hampshire, reports CBS News. On Friday, he will attend a ceremony for Florida Supreme Court Justice Meredith Sasso, who DeSantis appointed in May. He will then attend campaign events in South Carolina on Saturday and Sunday, CBS News has learned exclusively. His schedule for next Monday and Tuesday, the day of the New Hampshire primary, is still unclear. The move to prioritize South Carolina — and essentially forgo a heavy week of campaigning in the Granite State in the week before the primary — comes after two planned debates DeSantis accepted to attend in New Hampshire (CNN and ABC/WMUR) were canceled. AROUND THE WORLD Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gestures while addressing the assembly at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos. | Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images DAVOS SNUB — Ukrainian leaders made no secret of wanting to meet with Chinese officials in Switzerland this week but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has headed home without the desired encounter in a blow to Kyiv , reports POLITICO EU. China’s delegation in Switzerland had ample opportunity to sit across from their Ukrainian counterparts, whether in Bern or at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Any meeting would have satisfied a long-standing hope in Kyiv to hold frank, in-person discussions with senior officials from Beijing. Just before a multi-nation peace summit in the Swiss Alps, Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak said it was imperative for China to join peace talks and hinted that Zelenskyy would have an opportunity to chat with Chinese Premier Li Qiang. In the end, Ukraine made no headway on getting China to commit to negotiations, and Zelenskyy and Li failed to speak. It’s the latest sign China has no intention of pushing for an end to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale war on Ukraine. It has instead sided with Russia, providing its forces with materials for military use which have sustained Moscow’s war effort despite Western pressure and sanctions. Ukraine and its supporters argue halting that pipeline would further derail the Kremlin’s plans. China’s decision not to meet with Ukrainians appeared intentional and not the result of a scheduling problem. One senior U.S. official said Beijing rejected Kyiv’s request for a meeting at some point during their mutual Swiss visits. Another senior U.S. official said China has refused any gatherings after Russia urged it to cease diplomatic encounters with Ukraine. Both countries have engaged in some diplomacy since Russia’s renewed and expanded invasion. Zelenskyy and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke on the phone last April and China’s Ukraine envoy traveled to Kyiv the following month. Relations have gotten far less personal since, though Ukraine maintains hope both sides can restart talks. ARRIVAL NOTICE — A shipment of medicine for dozens of hostages held by Hamas arrived in Gaza today after France and Qatar mediated the first agreement between Israel and the militant group since a weeklong cease-fire in November. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Majed al-Ansari, announced late today on X, formerly Twitter, that the shipment had crossed into Gaza, without saying whether the medicine had been distributed. A senior Hamas official said that for every box provided for the hostages, 1,000 boxes of medicine would be sent in for Palestinians. The deal also includes the delivery of humanitarian aid to residents of the besieged coastal enclave.   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS : From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.      NIGHTLY NUMBER 63 percent The growth rate of enrollment under the Affordable Care Act in Louisiana and West Virginia for 2024 plans, the largest percentage increase in the nation. Last year, more than 20 million people signed up for 2024 plans — a new high. RADAR SWEEP MONKEY BUSINESS — In the Northern Mexico city of Culiacan, the home of one of the most powerful drug cartels, a different underground system exists: the world of exotic pets . People own spider monkeys, tigers and pumas — and their wealthy owners walk them around in the streets like dogs on leashes. In the city these exotic pets equal power and are becoming the typical house pets for cartel members. From the vets that take care of the animals — who never ask what the owners do for a living — to the sanctuaries that inevitably end up taking these animals in when they become too much to care for, Kate Linthicum illustrates the secret life of exotic pets in Culiacan, from TikTok monkeys to the descendants of Pablo Escobar’s hippos. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 2008: Former world chess champion Bobby Fischer dies. Fischer, the reclusive chess genius who became a Cold War hero by dethroning the Soviet world champion Boris Spassky in 1972, later renounced his American citizenship. He is pictured here on Aug. 10, 1971. | AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Mia McCarthy @Reporter_Mia   FOLLOW US

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