Thursday, April 15, 2021

POLITICO NIGHTLY: From Michigan to India, Covid hasn’t quit us



 
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BY RENUKA RAYASAM

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WHAT’S GOING ON — Covid cases have surpassed winter peaks in Michigan during the past two weeks, even as more than 40 percent of the population has received at least one dose of a vaccine. Hospitalizations in the state have hit their highest levels since the start of the pandemic, including 45 children, a record high.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky has recommended that Michigan “close things down,” putting the Biden administration at odds with Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is asking for more vaccine doses instead.

The Nightly reached out to two researchers who have sharply different views on what Michigan’s rising caseload means for the rest of the country: Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center and professor of pediatrics in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, and Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and a member of Biden’s Covid-19 Advisory Board. This conversation has been edited.

Offit: I continue to remain optimistic for these reasons. We’ve got immunity induced by natural infection. We’ve got immunity induced by vaccination, and we’ve got the weather all working in our favor. I do not see how people can reasonably make the claim that we’re about to have a big surge right now coming after the spring given those three things. Mike Osterholm has predicted a surge in the spring, but I don’t see it.

Osterholm: It’s no longer theoretical at all. Cases did rise last week by about 6.7 percent, and 36 states saw their seven-day average for new cases increase in the past week. Hospitalizations grew by 3.8 percent in 31 states. In the previous discussion in Nightly, when Paul Offit and I were pitted against each other, I said that B117 would cause that increase to happen despite the vaccine. And here we are.

What I’ve been talking about with B117 for the last eight to ten weeks is playing out right now in the Upper Midwest and that’s even with vaccinations.

What will keep that from happening across the rest of the country? Michigan and Minnesota have among some of the highest vaccination levels in the country. We’ve also been hit with previous waves and yet look what’s happening. We don’t have adequate vaccination levels in this country along with previous infections to prevent a surge from occurring.

Offit: I don’t think you can call this a national surge. The incidence of death is clearly down and that is what matters. If you look at cases and hospitalizations, you can’t say it’s jumped nationally. My premise is that natural immunity already happened in California and Texas. Michigan just may have been late to the game of having these cases.

The incidence of disease in children has gone up, I agree with that. The incidence of deaths hasn’t.

Osterholm: Granted we are protecting the older population better. That’s really important. We’re seeing a big increase in hospitalizations right in younger populations, and that’s really concerning.

We’re opening up, not locking down. I worried about B117 back in January hitting us, and look where it’s at now. That’s the kind of thing that people just want to ignore, and that’s one of the challenges we have right now. We’re seeing people believing that this pandemic is over with, and it’s not.

Offit: It’s a scary virus. I mean, I’m all for stopping the spread of this virus. I think we scare people a little unnecessarily. It bugs me a little bit that they are always hanging crepe on television.

There is reason for hope here. We will have enough vaccine to immunize everyone this summer. Then you are going to see what the real problem is because the real problem is not variants. It’s vaccine denialism.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. I have to help my toddler create something functional out of recycled materials for an Earth Day project and welcome all ideas. I also welcome other news, tips and ideas for us at rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @renurayasam.

A message from the SEIU:

President Biden is investing $400 billion in care workers — largely women of color & immigrants working on the frontlines of this pandemic. We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to create millions of sustainable union care jobs of the future. It’s time for Congress to pass President Biden’s jobs plan! Learn more

 
AROUND THE WORLD

Migrant workers queue up to enter a railway station to leave the city ahead of a lockdown to slow the spread of Covid-19 in Mumbai, India.

Migrant workers line up to enter a railway station to leave the city ahead of a lockdown to slow the spread of Covid-19 in Mumbai, India. | Getty Images

HALF A WORLD AWAY — I was 2-and-a-half years old the first time I visited my relatives in South India, in the state of Andhra Pradesh. My favorite aunt, my mom’s brother’s wife, likes to tell the story of how I leapt into her arms from the train when it stopped in Guntur even though I had just met her.

She and my uncle were supposed to visit Texas, where two of their three children live, in May after their second Covid vaccine dose. They have yet to meet their youngest grandchild. But their shots have been delayed, writes Renu.

And India now has the highest daily case counts in the world. The country recorded more than a million cases and nearly 6,000 deaths over the last week. India’s current Covid surge has pushed it past Brazil to make it the country with the second highest total Covid cases, after the U.S.

I’m not sure when I will see my aunt and uncle — or any of my other Indian relatives — again.

I have often wondered how the world’s second most populous country, one with an underdeveloped health care system, incomprehensible poverty levels and lots of crowds managed to fare better than the U.S. during the pandemic. I thought whatever it was — probably a young population and open-air homes — would keep much of the country’s more than 1.3 billion people mostly safe, especially with vaccines being rolled out.

Instead, lethal new virus variants have emerged during the country’s festival, wedding and regional election season — along with deep pandemic fatigue, a slow vaccine rollout and entrenched vaccine skepticism.

Last year most of the country was under a strict lockdown, rarely allowed to leave the house. For months my dad’s brother in the South Indian town of Ongole would have to finish the day’s shopping by 9 a.m. for the entire household, which includes my grandmother, my aunt, my cousin and her two school-age daughters. Domestic help like cooks and maids, common in many middle- and upper-class Indian households, were prohibited from coming to their house to help out.

But now the country is at the other end of the social distancing extreme. More than 2 million Hindus bathed in the Ganga River Monday during the Kumbh Mela festival in Haridwar, a North Indian city near the foothills of the Himalayas. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government refused to cancel the festival, rebuffing requests of public health officials for fear of upsetting Hindu loyalists. And Hindus across the country will celebrate their New Year this week — including the Telugu New Year, Ugadi, that my family celebrates. Maharashtra, the Indian state with the highest case rate, has imposed a lockdown for the next two weeks, but there’s no nationwide measures as severe as last year.

Even without the festivals, Indians are just pretending that the pandemic is over, an older cousin in Hyderabad told me over WhatsApp. Schools are closed there, she said, but movie theaters, shopping malls and outdoor markets are packed. “Dear Renu, it’s horrible here,” she texted me. Another younger cousin in Hyderabad got Covid a couple of weeks ago, likely from her husband who had to start going to his office in Bangalore.

Rupali Limaye’s relatives in Mumbai were invited to a 1,000 person wedding. They didn’t go. “It’s bananas to me,” Limaye, director of Behavioral and Implementation Science at the International Vaccine Access Center at Johns Hopkins University, said of the country’s Covid caseload, which is expected to double in the next couple of months.

Already two new variants have been found in India, Chunhuei Chi, director of the Center for Global Health at Oregon State University, told me. One of the variants, which is probably contributing to fast-rising Covid cases in Maharashtra, has two different mutations, raising the chances that it could escape the vaccine’s defenses. In one New Delhi hospital, 37 doctors tested positive for Covid after receiving two vaccine doses. “India needs to contain this quickly,” Chi said.

Then there’s the reality of vaccinating more than 1.3 billion people. India has already administered more than 100 million Covid vaccine doses and as of April 1, everyone over 45 has been eligible for a vaccine. But only about 1 percent of the country has been fully vaccinated.

Public health experts estimate that the country will need to triple its vaccination rate in order to make a dent in mortality rates in the next few months. The country has halted exports of the AstraZeneca vaccine and the Covid therapy remdesivir in order to meet domestic demand.

The country approved Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine for emergency use this week, but officials are struggling to overcome vaccine misinformation spreading rapidly through WhatsApp and other social media sites.

My dad is still trying to convince his brother to get their 88-year-old mom, my grandmother, vaccinated. She had my dad when she was 16, and they are close. My dad makes the trip from Atlanta to Ongole once a year to see her. Last year my parents managed to leave India days before the lockdowns began. He was planning a trip to see his mom in November. Now he’s not so sure he can anymore.

 

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ASK THE AUDIENCE

Nightly asks you: If you have been working remotely since the pandemic began last year, have you visited your office even once? Tell us what it was like. Use the form to send your answers, and we’ll include select responses in Friday’s edition.

 

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WHAT'D I MISS?

— CDC vaccine panel unexpectedly delays decision on Johnson & Johnson shot: A group of vaccine experts advising the CDC deadlocked today on whether or how to limit use of Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vacccine based on sex or age. The panel was originally scheduled to vote this afternoon on how the federal government should proceed after calling Tuesday for a pause in use of the vaccine after receiving reports of rare blood clots in a handful of people who received the shot.

— Harris to visit Mexico, Guatemala ‘soon’: Vice President Kamala Harris, the Biden administration’s point person on stemming the flow of Central American migrants to the U.S., said today she will travel to Mexico and Guatemala “soon” amid mounting GOP criticism.

— Minnesota cop will be charged in shooting: A Minnesota prosecutor said he will charge a white former suburban Minneapolis police officer who fatally shot 20-year-old Daunte Wright during a traffic stop, igniting days of unrest and clashes between protesters and police. Kim Potter will be charged with second-degree manslaughter, Washington County Attorney Pete Orput said. The charge carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison.

— Gensler confirmed as top Wall Street cop: The Senate confirmed Gary Gensler to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission, putting in place a battle-tested Wall Street watchdog at a moment when Democrats are looking to rein in financial market risk. The Senate confirmed Gensler in a 53-45 vote.

PUNCHLINES

TORTS AND ALL — In the latest “Drawn Out” episode of Punchlines, Matt Wuerker invited Ralph Nader to come explain tort law — what it is, why you should know about it and his background in consumer protection advocacy. Matt draws out the concept and brings it to life in cartoon form.

Nightly video player of Drawn Out with Ralph Nader

NIGHTLY NUMBER

More than 2,000

The number of open FBI investigations that “tie back to the Chinese government,” FBI Director Chistopher Wray told senators during the first congressional hearing about global threats in more than two years today.

 

YOUR GUIDE TO THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION: As the Biden administration closes in on three months in office, what are the big takeaways? Will polls that show support for infrastructure initiatives and other agenda items translate into Republican votes or are they a mirage? What's the plan to deal with Sen. Joe Manchin? Add Transition Playbook to your daily reads for details you won't find anywhere else that reveal what's really happening inside the West Wing and across the executive branch. Track the people, policies and power centers of the Biden administration. Subscribe today.

 
 
PARTING WORDS

ANOTHER EX IN TEXAS  Rep. Kevin Brady’s retirement won’t drastically shift the political balance of power in Texas. The top Republican on the Ways and Means Committee, who was an important figure in getting Trump’s tax cuts through Congress, is in a pretty safe GOP district which includes parts of Houston. But it’s the latest dent in the state’s clout in Congress and in the national Republican Party.

Since Trump got elected, Texas Republicans have been leaving the House in droves: About a dozen Texas House Republicans were newly elected in the last four years. It’s a major shift from 2016 when Texas Republicans held seven House committee chairmanships. When Brady first ran to head the Ways & Means Committee in 2015, he said the biggest strike against him was “Texas fatigue” among House colleagues.

The shift is as much cultural as it is substantive. With Trump planning his comeback from Mar-a-Lago and Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis ascendant, it seems like the center of conservative gravity has shifted from Texas to Florida. Even Florida’s former Rep. Allen West is chair of the Texas GOP right now.

Texas still sends more Republicans to Congress than any other state, but these days the Texas GOP is struggling to figure out where it fits in a post-Trump party. A lot of Texas Republicans still identify with the old-guard GOP, Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston who's working on a book about Rick Perry, told me. Former President and Texas Gov. George W. Bush, the state's GOP’s figurehead for more than a decade, has publicly broken with Trump.

Brady is a Trump supporter, points out Rottinghaus, but he is less than gung-ho about the party’s direction. “He’s not leaving because of Trump,” said Rottinghaus, “but because of what Trump did to the Republican Party.”

A message from the SEIU:

President Biden’s plan to invest $400 billion in essential care infrastructure is a commitment to America’s future. It means millions of good union jobs for women of color and immigrant workers. It means accessible and affordable home care for all families — so our parents, grandparents and people with disabilities can live at home with dignity and independence. It means thriving, resilient communities.

Congress must meet the president’s commitment to invest in care infrastructure and care workers as a cornerstone of the American economy. Learn more and join us!

 

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