POLITICO NIGHTLY: The two pandemic numbers that will decide the presidency

By Ryan Lizza and Renuka Rayasam Presented by BODY COUNT VS. GDP — What are the numbers that will matter to voters in November when they decide whether to fire President Donald Trump? At the White House today, I twice asked Kayleigh McEnany, Trump’s new press secretary, how many dead Americans should voters in November tolerate when deciding whether the president has successfully defeated the coronavirus pandemic. She didn’t answer the question but pointed to early projections of between 1.5 million and 2.2 million deaths if no actions were taken, suggesting that beating that estimate was the White House benchmark for success. “We avoided that extraordinary number,” she said. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham recently told me that his benchmark was 130,000 deaths, which the country is likely to cross this summer. McEnany, as Trump has done, changed the subject. She argued that quarantine was killing many Americans through increased suicides and other drug overdoses. For the White House and many Republicans, the growing body count is clearly a number they dread discussing. Democrats have a different set of 2020 numbers with which they are struggling. Jason Furman, a chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Obama administration, said this week that Democrats were politically mistaken to make exaggerated predictions about the severity of the economic crisis this fall. Furman is predicting a V-shaped “partial rebound” that will begin next month and continue through Election Day. Most provocatively, Furman foresees a scenario in which Trump can credibly brag about creating more jobs per month than any president in history — perhaps 1-2 million — and higher GDP than anything on record. For the Biden campaign and Democrats, falling unemployment rates and rising GDP are clearly numbers they dread discussing. A fall campaign with a pandemic still killing Americans and an economy rebounding raises the question of what metrics voters will really care about. Trump may be able to argue that the trend lines are what’s important (fewer deaths per day, declining unemployment) while Joe Biden will point to the overall numbers (more dead Americans than several recent wars, likely double-digit unemployment). An argument to stay the course because the trends are looking good has worked for incumbent presidents before. Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Barack Obama in 2012 both won reelection when unemployment was high by historical standards but headed in a downward direction. Democrats believe this is the most urgent question for Biden. As one person close to Obama told me this week, “This is the challenge for the Biden campaign.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition. ICYMI: My colleague Dan Goldberg has a new book about a group of African American sailors chosen to integrate the Naval Officer Corps during World War II. Reach out with tips: rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam. A message from Humana: At Humana, we’re committed to helping our members – many of whom are at high-risk for coronavirus – stay healthy and safe by connecting them to the resources they need. Learn More   First In Nightly VOTERS HAVE Q’S ABOUT HCQ — In the next POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, out Wednesday, only 23 percent of registered voters said they support using hydroxychloroquine to treat coronavirus , down from 29 percent who supported the therapy in April, reporter Caitlin Oprysko writes. And only 11 percent said they are likely to take the anti-malarial drug themselves. The poll, which was conducted after Trump’s revelation last week that he was taking the drug, found that almost three-quarters of voters were aware of that news. The poll found an intense partisan split over hydroxychloroquine. Just 11 percent of Democrats and two-in-10 independents said they supported the treatment. By contrast, 42 percent of Republicans said they support use of hydroxychloroquine, with about half of that amount saying they “strongly support” use of the drug for coronavirus patients. The survey was partially conducted after one of the largest observational studies of the drug to date found no evidence hydroxychloroquine treats coronavirus, and that it was linked to increased rates of mortality and cardiac issues among hospitalized Covid-19 patients. The findings mirror initial data from other observational studies, which have shown the drug has limited or no proven benefits for coronavirus patients, and may even be harmful when used in certain combinations. On Monday, the World Health Organization hit pause on its use of the drug as part of a global study of potential coronavirus treatments while it reviews safety data. Only 11 percent of voters in the poll said they would be very or somewhat likely to ingest the drug themselves to treat coronavirus. The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted online between May 22-26 among a national sample of 1,986 registered voters. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.   HAPPENING TOMORROW – GLOBAL BANKING AND INVESTING DURING A PANDEMIC: Join Global Translations author Ryan Heath tomorrow at 9 a.m. EDT for a virtual interview with Suma Chakrabarti, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Why is so much of the Covid-related government spending is inefficient? How did EBRD became the world’s first Covid-only bank? Will the push for the private sector to become more sustainable pay off? Don't miss out on this fascinating conversation presented in partnership with The Atlantic Council. REGISTER HERE.     Attendees of the Second Plenary Session of the National People's Congress clap during a speech Monday at the Great Hall of The People in Beijing. | Andrea Verdelli/Getty Images From the Health Desk LASTING SCARS — The vast majority of Covid patients make full recoveries from the disease. But doctors are worried about the long-term damage from severe infections. The military isn’t taking any chances: The Pentagon says Covid survivors are barred from joining. And as cases continue to grow, more and more people will survive Covid but suffer from lasting health effects. Your host spoke with three physicians today who are on the frontlines of treating Covid patients and managing their recovery to talk about what they know so far about the virus’ lasting impact. Covid damage can go beyond lungs. Difficulty breathing and exhaustion are the most common lingering long-term effects. Based on the experiences of people with other severe respiratory illnesses, it might take patients weeks or even months before their energy levels return or they can breathe normally. Patients who were on ventilators, and in a medically induced coma, suffer even more severe effects. That can lead to what’s known as post intensive care syndrome, heightened in patients with Covid because they spend a longer time on ventilators and in intensive care units. In addition to physical weakness from being bedridden for weeks, these patients have windpipe scars from ventilator tubes and a form of post traumatic stress disorder heightened by critical care conditions. “ICU survivorship is similar to cancer survivorship, but they don’t have support groups,” said Shari Brosnahan, a pulmonary and critical care physician at NYU’s Langone Health. Severely ill Covid patients are also suffering strokes, seizures and other nervous system disorders, which can be hard to detect in a sedated patient and could lead to long-term damage to the brain and nervous system. In addition, some Covid patients form blood clots in other areas of their body, leading to amputations. And Covid patients who suffered kidney damage may need dialysis for months or years. “I am worried we will see a lot of permanent damage,” said Alice Gallo de Moraes, pulmonary and critical care physician at the Mayo Clinic. “It’s just very new and very scary.” Then there’s the mental health damage. Recovering in isolation could heighten depression and other mental health disorders faced by Covid survivors, said Aaron Bunnell, a physician at the University of Washington’s Department of Rehabilitation Medicine. Bunnell is setting up a clinic for people who recover from Covid and other respiratory illnesses. It will track Covid survivors to see how quickly they can return to everyday tasks like showering and getting dressed, he said, as well as getting back to work. Because they remain in isolation until they shed the virus completely, recovery is expected to be harder for Covid patients. Already about half of people admitted to the ICU with acute respiratory distress syndrome, which many Covid patients get, don’t return to work within a year, probably because of decreased endurance and physical function and impaired cognition and mental health, Bunnell said. “People feel really isolated and alone,” he said. “You’ve lost your job and it is hard for you to get up off the couch and make breakfast and then you need a two-hour nap after you do it.” Survivors in their 40s, 50s and 60s will likely suffer the longest . Elderly adults — those older than 70 — are most likely to die from the virus, while younger people generally have a milder form of Covid. People in their midlife, with decades yet to live, are generally those who survive a more severe infection and are more likely to suffer serious aftereffects from a hospital stay. “That’s the group that we’re concerned about when we discharge,” said Brosnahan. “If you were an active person with this disease and were in the ICU, your transition away from either being a primary breadwinner or taking care of kids or taking a trip in your retirement, those are things that have been taken away from you.” Nightly Number 1.7 million The number of page views in April for a Chinese social media account claiming the U.S. was turning the bodies of people who died of Covid-19 into hamburgers. China shut the WeChat account down earlier this week. The account’s handle was Zhidao Xuegong, which translates to “Scholar Forum for Ultimate Truth.”. (h/t SCMP) Ask The Audience Our question for readers this week: What does your face mask or covering look like? Snap a photo of it sometime this week (no faces, please) and send it to nightly@politico.com. We’ll share our favorites on Friday.     PUNCHLINES GATEKEEPERS — With Trump’s consistent talking (and tweeting) about “Obamagate,” Matt Wuerker looks at the history of naming Washington scandals with the suffix -gate. The Global Fight GOING ROGUE — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approval rating dropped 20 points , and his government has lost 16 percent support, in a single day thanks to the revelation that his top aide, Dominic Cummings, broke multiple British pandemic rules to drive his wife and child 260 miles to visit his parents in April. The U.K. had banned “non-essential travel” and instructed citizens: “Do not leave home if you or anyone in your household has symptoms,” which Cummings did have. Cummings is getting hammered across Britain’s front pages and the scandal is coming to symbolize a political class Britons increasingly distrust for their self-dealing and lack of solutions, Ryan Heath writes. The last decade has seen a major parliamentary expenses scandal, harsh austerity policies, a bitter four-year Brexit debate, and now a string of unforced errors by ministers and medical officials that have delivered Britain the world’s second-highest Covid-19 death toll after the U.S., nearly 38,000. First in, last out? — Lombardy, the richest region in Italy and vaunted for its health care system, has recorded more than 15,500 deaths within its borders since February 21 — half the number of total fatalities nationwide. As the country starts lifting lockdown restrictions, Lombardy still has the highest number of cases per capita in Italy. Regional Governor Attilio Fontana insists there is nothing he would have done differently, citing the speed of the surge: 1,000 positive cases in 10 days. But critics say a difficult situation was made worse by poor decision-making that is ongoing, Greta Privitera writes. In Lombardy, home to Milan, authorities over the years focused on building private health care institutions that deliver profitable services such as complex surgeries and specialized treatments. Less attention was paid to the broader public health system: emergency services, general care and geriatrics. Unless numbers improve, people in Lombardy risk finding themselves confined to their home turf beyond June 3, when the Italian government is set to allow travel between regions. From Russia with trouble — Vladimir Putin had grand plans for the spring, including a constitutional change that would let him remain in power into his 80s. Then the coronavirus hit. Now, Russia has more cases than any country except the U.S. In the latest episode of POLITICO Dispatch, Moscow journalist Michele A. Berdy breaks down how the pandemic got so bad in Russia, and how it could turn the tide against Putin: “These people were raised in the sort-of Soviet nanny state, but none of them expected the government would lift a finger to help them. All of them just thought they were on their own.” Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast   WINNERS PLAY THE LONG GAME: If there is one thread linking the greatest challenges facing our society, economy and planet, it’s the tension between short-term and long-term thinking. “The Long Game," presented by Morgan Stanley, is designed for executives, investors and policymakers who are leading the conversation about how our society can thrive in the future. Engage with the sharpest minds on our biggest challenges, from pandemics to plastics, climate change to land use, inequality and the future of work. Searching for a nuanced look at these issues and possible solutions? Subscribe today.     Parting Words THE FUTURE OF MOVIEGOING — Memorial Day weekend is usually the unofficial start to the summer movie season, a time for big-budget blockbusters to pack theaters and rake in $100 million or more in a three-day span. Not this year: The highest-grossing movie of 2020 in the U.S. remains Bad Boys for Life, released on Jan. 17. What will moviegoing look like after the lockdown? Solstice Studios’ Unhinged will serve as the first test of whether people will rush back to theaters to see a new movie, and whether the big screen can outlast the pandemic. Unhinged will come to big screens July 1. It’s not a superhero movie. It’s a $30 million road-rage movie starring Russell Crowe. Your host spoke with Solstice CEO Mark Gill and John Fithian, president of the National Association of Theater Owners, from their camera-ready homes about how movie theaters are like churches and whether the film business has something to learn from the porn industry about making movies during an epidemic. This interview has been edited. Why release a movie during a pandemic? Mark Gill: We started looking later in the year, fall, winter or even spring of next year. There is the usual fairly full schedule of movies, plus all the delayed movies. It just became pretty obvious that we were gonna have a very difficult time just getting theaters. We started looking at doing something very different: What would happen if we tried to go first? How can you keep moviegoers safe? They have to spend a couple hours in an enclosed space. John Fithian: We're like churches to a degree. It involves social distancing. It involves capacity limits. You're not selling out an entire auditorium. You're spacing people. We're staggering our show times so that there is no congestion in the lobbies. We’re having bigger spaces in between the showtimes to allow cleaning of the seats and doing social distancing in the restrooms by blocking off every other urinal. Certainly our employees are going to wear PPE. We've operated through depressions and wars and natural disasters. This the first time we've shut down entirely. Will the pandemic accelerate the trend toward streaming platforms? Mark Gill: I look at movies as basically the most reasonably affordable way to go out for entertainment. If anything, I think what you'll see is people starting to realize they really enjoy those moments when they can see their friends and be together. John Fithian: I think we're going to do a lot of business. What we found is that people are fed up with watching content at home. The one thing this pandemic has reminded everybody of is how special those experiences outside the home are. Because people miss them like crazy. We're seeing a resurgence of interest in going out to the movies. It's almost like you had to be denied that freedom to cherish it. How does the rest of the summer look? John Fithian: We have no idea because we've never been here before. We think people want to come back out, if we're doing it carefully. We have some mid-sized like Mark’s movie, some smaller independent movies and a couple big gigantic blockbusters in July. In August, we’ve got Wonder Woman and a bunch of other big films. Predicting what the actual receipts are going to be for these movies, we just don’t know. How does production resume during the pandemic? The adult film industry, for example, adapted during the HIV crisis by making sure actors got frequently tested. How will you adapt to coronavirus? Mark Gill: I think clearly that the smaller the movie, the easier it is to do right. I mean, a big movie can have several hundred people on a crew. One of the most interesting things I've seen is in Germany where they started up television productions. They've given the crew color-coded T-shirts, and that way you don't have any question about who is supposed to be where. Hair and makeup, are they going to be wearing very protective gear? Are you running a shorter day? Probably, yes, because after 10, 12 hours, people start to get much more tired and therefore their immune systems are more compromised and more mistakes tend to happen. We'll go back to what's known as French hours, which is probably a healthy thing. A message from Humana: At Humana, we’re experts at helping our members achieve better health and recognize our unique role in supporting them during this unprecedented time. That’s why we're: 1) Waiving all member medical costs for coronavirus testing and treatment 2) Waiving copays for primary care and outpatient behavioral health visits, including telehealth, for Medicare Advantage members through 2020 3) Proactively mailing members safety kits with masks and encouraging the use of mail order pharmacies to help people access the resources they need from the safety of their homes. Humana is committed to doing all that we can to protect our members’ health during the coronavirus. Learn More   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam

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