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By Renuka Rayasam and Joanne Kenen
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WE'RE HALFWAY THROUGH THE 15 DAYS — President Donald Trump says he wants to end America's social-distancing experiment soon to save the economy. But public health experts say
it's too early to say we've slowed down the pandemic enough to spring back into normal life.
At today's coronavirus task force briefing, Deborah Birx, the White House task force response coordinator, described a series of epidemics that are
rippling across the country. Seattle started a few weeks ago. New York City has begun what's likely to be a brutal wave now. Birx said about one in 1,000 people in the NYC metropolitan area is probably infected already — an extraordinary rate.
Trump's goal would be to keep some areas hunkered down, but let others loosen up, not next week but "very very soon." But that would require something we don't yet have: ongoing, widespread real time testing and monitoring to pinpoint hot spots before they become burning fires. The government would need to be able to obtain, analyze, and act on data, to know which neighborhoods should be quarantined, which individuals should be isolated, and which could go about their business. There would be all sorts of other complexities — travel, for one.
These charts: Compiled by the Financial Times, they illustrate
the U.S. trajectory compared to many other nations, developed and less developed. We're skyrocketing on confirmed infections, faster than any other country on the chart (and yes, we know that some countries aren't being transparent). The curve on deaths in the U.S. isn't much better — and the deaths lag a few weeks behind infections.
Mortality rate:
Trump talked a lot about how the mortality rate from Covid-19 is lower than feared earlier in the epidemic. But if thousands of New Yorkers get seriously ill very soon, a lot of people are going to die.
One thing we do know: If we end up with more critically ill patients than ventilators, we'll know we failed.
Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition
, a nightly intelligence brief from our global newsroom on the impact of the coronavirus on politics and policy, the economy and global health. You can catch me and Health Editor Adriel Bettelheim on Tuesday on POLITICO Live talking about the U.S. response to the coronavirus. Register here. Reach out: rrayasam@politico.com and @renurayasam.
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A message from PhRMA:
In these unprecedented times, America's biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: the eradication of COVID-19. We are rapidly screening our vast global libraries to identify potential treatments and have numerous clinical trials underway.
Explore our efforts.
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TOO SOON — Hopes that the economy will make a swift recovery after the worst of the crisis passes are quickly fading.
On Thursday, economists are expecting the largest U.S. jobless claim number ever reported, smashing previous unemployment records. The word "depression" has been seeping into more long-term forecasts as fears grow that the virus could continue its spread — and that's even factoring in the multi-trillion dollar response from Congress and the Fed.
That's rattling Trump —
The clash between economists and public health officials is creating some strange alliances and disagreement among the president's closest advisers. Even if the president does lift lockdown orders, governors and local leaders may not follow suit blunting any potential economic uplift.
Stay tuned: Trump and members of the Coronavirus Task Force will participate in a Fox New Virtual Town Hall on Tuesday from 12-2 p.m.
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Grand Central Terminal stands mostly empty as much of the city is void of cars and pedestrians over fears of spreading the coronavirus. | Getty Images
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$419 billion: The decline in market value of Apple from its peak this year on Feb. 12 to today's close.
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DOWN TO THE WIRE — Partisan rancor scuttled a vote
to move forward on a nearly $2 trillion coronavirus rescue package for the second time in two days, but the high stakes mean that a deal is still likely as early as Tuesday, POLITICO's Congressional Editor Ben Weyl tells us. The rising death toll and economic fallout has lawmakers on Capitol Hill spooked both for the country as well as their own health.
"This is big and scary," said Ben. "It feels bigger even than the 2008 financial crisis, because there's this virus that's mysterious and deadly and shutting our country down. The potential devastation, in human and financial terms, is hard to wrap your head around."
At the moment, Democrats are worried about a provision sending $500 billion to distressed industries, which they say could turn into a slush fund
with little oversight. And they want to see more help for the unemployed and hospitals. Lawmakers are anxious to get a deal done especially as an increasing number of their own ranks test positive for the virus or are quarantined.
While Congress will likely take a breather after they pass this rescue package — no one wants to be in Washington right now — it's likely they'll eventually have to come back to deliver even more relief, Ben said.
Over the long haul, the pandemic could also usher in changes to how Congress operates, including to allow lawmakers to vote remotely in times of crisis.
"At the moment, leadership is reluctant to make that change. But momentum is growing, and I could see it happening one day," Ben said.
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THE FDA & AGENCY IQ: The ground below our feet is shifting by the second. And the FDA is at the epicenter of the federal government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. POLITICO's newest division, AgencyIQ,
is providing around-the-clock coverage of the developing public health crisis for regulatory professionals in the biopharmaceutical and in vitro diagnostic (IVD) communities. AgencyIQ's full suite of research and analysis is available in the COVID-19 Resource Center
, which addresses important topics ranging from development pathways available to companies bringing new medical products to the public to the impact of FDA's efforts to accelerate the introduction of a vaccine for the novel coronavirus. If you are monitoring this situation at a micro level, check it out here.
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How has Covid-19 transformed the job market?
"Under the latest numbers, EPI expects a loss of around 14 millions jobs by the summer even with a congressional relief package factored in. The economist part of me is totally freaked out about what this means for working people. In the coming weeks, millions are going to be laid off and [unemployment insurance] systems are just crashing. It absolutely will be possible for some [to be retrained in in-demand fields.] Some people will luck out and get those jobs, but there will still be millions lost." —
Heidi Shierholz, senior economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute as told to POLITICO's employment and immigration reporter Rebecca Rainey.
"It's no exaggeration to call this the most severe challenge in modern history for dine-in restaurants. The concern right now is that some of these restaurants may not survive. Reopening can be expensive; one mid-sized operator estimated in a letter to Congress he would need two weeks of revenue to restart the company. The servers that I've spoken with aren't interested in leaving the industry. Right now, most are optimistic that this is a short-term crisis rather than a long-term one, and they're looking for gigs they're eligible for based on existing skill sets. One server out West told me she's considering Amazon's recent offer
of part-time employment for those laid off at other jobs. It would be a pay cut relative to her usual tip income, but the pay is better than unemployment benefits." — Michael Saltsman of the conservative Employment Policies Institute
This week, unemployment claims soared as state and federal officials
restricted public gatherings and shuttered stores to prevent the spread of the Covid-19. Using wage data from the U.S. Department of Labor and working conditions surveys from O*NET, we analyzed those who are most vulnerable.
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Beatrice Jin and Andrew McGill/POLITICO
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CONVENTION IN QUESTION — If you ask the DNC, their July convention in Milwaukee is going to happen the same as it always was. If you ask many skeptical Democrats, they have major doubts.
The DNC's steady-as-she-goes posture stands in contrast to some of its own state parties. Democrats could pursue a range of options if a traditional convention is not possible, including postponing the gathering or changing the rules to allow delegates to vote remotely.
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