POLITICO NIGHTLY: 'Let's go to work'

By Renuka Rayasam and Joanne Kenen

Presented by

WE'RE HALFWAY THROUGH THE 15 DAYS — President Donald Trump says he wants to end America's social-distancing experiment soon to save the economy. But public health experts say it's too early to say we've slowed down the pandemic enough to spring back into normal life. At today's coronavirus task force briefing, Deborah Birx, the White House task force response coordinator, described a series of epidemics that are rippling across the country. Seattle started a few weeks ago. New York City has begun what's likely to be a brutal wave now. Birx said about one in 1,000 people in the NYC metropolitan area is probably infected already — an extraordinary rate. Trump's goal would be to keep some areas hunkered down, but let others loosen up, not next week but "very very soon." But that would require something we don't yet have: ongoing, widespread real time testing and monitoring to pinpoint hot spots before they become burning fires. The government would need to be able to obtain, analyze, and act on data, to know which neighborhoods should be quarantined, which individuals should be isolated, and which could go about their business. There would be all sorts of other complexities — travel, for one. These charts: Compiled by the Financial Times, they illustrate the U.S. trajectory compared to many other nations, developed and less developed. We're skyrocketing on confirmed infections, faster than any other country on the chart (and yes, we know that some countries aren't being transparent). The curve on deaths in the U.S. isn't much better — and the deaths lag a few weeks behind infections. Mortality rate: Trump talked a lot about how the mortality rate from Covid-19 is lower than feared earlier in the epidemic. But if thousands of New Yorkers get seriously ill very soon, a lot of people are going to die. One thing we do know: If we end up with more critically ill patients than ventilators, we'll know we failed. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition , a nightly intelligence brief from our global newsroom on the impact of the coronavirus on politics and policy, the economy and global health. You can catch me and Health Editor Adriel Bettelheim on Tuesday on POLITICO Live talking about the U.S. response to the coronavirus. Register here. Reach out: rrayasam@politico.com and @renurayasam.

A message from PhRMA: In these unprecedented times, America's biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: the eradication of COVID-19. We are rapidly screening our vast global libraries to identify potential treatments and have numerous clinical trials underway. Explore our efforts.

TOO SOON — Hopes that the economy will make a swift recovery after the worst of the crisis passes are quickly fading. On Thursday, economists are expecting the largest U.S. jobless claim number ever reported, smashing previous unemployment records. The word "depression" has been seeping into more long-term forecasts as fears grow that the virus could continue its spread — and that's even factoring in the multi-trillion dollar response from Congress and the Fed. That's rattling Trump — The clash between economists and public health officials is creating some strange alliances and disagreement among the president's closest advisers. Even if the president does lift lockdown orders, governors and local leaders may not follow suit blunting any potential economic uplift. Stay tuned: Trump and members of the Coronavirus Task Force will participate in a Fox New Virtual Town Hall on Tuesday from 12-2 p.m.

Grand Central Terminal stands mostly empty as much of the city is void of cars and pedestrians over fears of spreading the coronavirus. | Getty Images

Nightly Number

$419 billion: The decline in market value of Apple from its peak this year on Feb. 12 to today's close.

Turning to Congress

DOWN TO THE WIRE — Partisan rancor scuttled a vote to move forward on a nearly $2 trillion coronavirus rescue package for the second time in two days, but the high stakes mean that a deal is still likely as early as Tuesday, POLITICO's Congressional Editor Ben Weyl tells us. The rising death toll and economic fallout has lawmakers on Capitol Hill spooked both for the country as well as their own health. "This is big and scary," said Ben. "It feels bigger even than the 2008 financial crisis, because there's this virus that's mysterious and deadly and shutting our country down. The potential devastation, in human and financial terms, is hard to wrap your head around." At the moment, Democrats are worried about a provision sending $500 billion to distressed industries, which they say could turn into a slush fund with little oversight. And they want to see more help for the unemployed and hospitals. Lawmakers are anxious to get a deal done especially as an increasing number of their own ranks test positive for the virus or are quarantined. While Congress will likely take a breather after they pass this rescue package — no one wants to be in Washington right now — it's likely they'll eventually have to come back to deliver even more relief, Ben said. Over the long haul, the pandemic could also usher in changes to how Congress operates, including to allow lawmakers to vote remotely in times of crisis. "At the moment, leadership is reluctant to make that change. But momentum is growing, and I could see it happening one day," Ben said.

THE FDA & AGENCY IQ: The ground below our feet is shifting by the second. And the FDA is at the epicenter of the federal government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. POLITICO's newest division, AgencyIQ, is providing around-the-clock coverage of the developing public health crisis for regulatory professionals in the biopharmaceutical and in vitro diagnostic (IVD) communities. AgencyIQ's full suite of research and analysis is available in the COVID-19 Resource Center , which addresses important topics ranging from development pathways available to companies bringing new medical products to the public to the impact of FDA's efforts to accelerate the introduction of a vaccine for the novel coronavirus. If you are monitoring this situation at a micro level, check it out here.

Talking to the Experts

How has Covid-19 transformed the job market? "Under the latest numbers, EPI expects a loss of around 14 millions jobs by the summer even with a congressional relief package factored in. The economist part of me is totally freaked out about what this means for working people. In the coming weeks, millions are going to be laid off and [unemployment insurance] systems are just crashing. It absolutely will be possible for some [to be retrained in in-demand fields.] Some people will luck out and get those jobs, but there will still be millions lost." — Heidi Shierholz, senior economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute as told to POLITICO's employment and immigration reporter Rebecca Rainey. "It's no exaggeration to call this the most severe challenge in modern history for dine-in restaurants. The concern right now is that some of these restaurants may not survive. Reopening can be expensive; one mid-sized operator estimated in a letter to Congress he would need two weeks of revenue to restart the company. The servers that I've spoken with aren't interested in leaving the industry. Right now, most are optimistic that this is a short-term crisis rather than a long-term one, and they're looking for gigs they're eligible for based on existing skill sets. One server out West told me she's considering Amazon's recent offer of part-time employment for those laid off at other jobs. It would be a pay cut relative to her usual tip income, but the pay is better than unemployment benefits." — Michael Saltsman of the conservative Employment Policies Institute This week, unemployment claims soared as state and federal officials restricted public gatherings and shuttered stores to prevent the spread of the Covid-19. Using wage data from the U.S. Department of Labor and working conditions surveys from O*NET, we analyzed those who are most vulnerable.

Beatrice Jin and Andrew McGill/POLITICO

2020 Watch

CONVENTION IN QUESTION — If you ask the DNC, their July convention in Milwaukee is going to happen the same as it always was. If you ask many skeptical Democrats, they have major doubts. The DNC's steady-as-she-goes posture stands in contrast to some of its own state parties. Democrats could pursue a range of options if a traditional convention is not possible, including postponing the gathering or changing the rules to allow delegates to vote remotely. "Given what the experts are saying, delegates may end up on a phone call" selecting their nominee, Bob Mulholland, a DNC member from California, said in a text message. "It is full speed ahead until a staffer yells 'Iceberg.'" Around the Nation OUT IN FRONT — Governors from both red and blue states are taking increasingly aggressive action to limit movement in an attempt to slow the spread of Covid-19. More than a dozen governors have now announced mandatory orders shutting down schools and forcing people to stay home as the number of new confirmed cases skyrockets around the country and the death toll rises about 100. How will their plans be scrambled after Trump's remarks tonight? — Massachusetts has been at the forefront of testing and New York's health department has the green light to begin testing a drug to treat Covid-19. The Global Fight DUTCH COURAGE — Shell, the Dutch oil company, is donating 2.5 million liters of isopropyl alcohol to the Dutch hospital system. That's a six-month supply of the key ingredient, a byproduct of oil and gas refining, for making sanitizer gel. The donation comes as the Netherlands struggles with 5,000 known infections among a population smaller than Florida's, with consequences ranging from closed borders to the Dutch health minister collapsing in Parliament. Protecting hospital workers is critical to battling the virus, and the heroic efforts of small distilleries to convert production to sanitizers is not enough on its own to meet urgent needs. Alongside Shell, there's another dozen major suppliers globally, including Dow, DuPont and ExxonMobil in the United States. Good news from Italy: Two weeks after the country's lockdown commenced, Italy's daily death toll fell for the second day in a row, hitting 601, after 651 Sunday and 792 Saturday. The timing of that progress is in line with what health experts predicted in recommending the lockdown.   TUNE IN TO POLITICO DISPATCH: Our POLITICO Dispatch podcast takes you behind the scenes at POLITICO, where journalists break news, work sources and pull back the curtain on politics and policy. Fast. Short. Daily. Subscribe and start listening today.     Parting Words ANIMAL HOUSE — With people around the globe on coronavirus lockdown, pets are suddenly having to get used to having their human companions around 24 hours a day. And while many jurisdictions have made exceptions for allowing pets to have fresh air, some people have taken advantage of the opportunity to leave the house. Luciano Barone, mayor of the Italian town of Mamoiada, was forced to clarify that one could only walk real dogs, after a local resident was caught taking a stroll with a toy pooch in tow.   A message from PhRMA: In these unprecedented times, America's biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: the eradication of COVID-19. The investments we've made have prepared us to act swiftly: · Rapidly screening our vast global libraries to identify potential treatments and have numerous clinical trials underway · Dedicating our top scientists and using our investments in new technologies to speed the development of safe and effective vaccines · Sharing learnings from clinical trials in real time with governments and other companies to advance the development of additional therapies · Expanding our unique manufacturing capabilities and sharing available capacity to ramp up production once a successful medicine or vaccine is developed Explore our efforts.   Did someone forward you this email? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam   Follow us POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA