KNIFE’S EDGE — Democrats and Republicans have already spent half a billion dollars on television ads in just two battleground states — Georgia and Pennsylvania. To that end, control of the Senate looks to be a toss-up — tiny margins in just a few key states may well make the difference on Election Day. We spoke with Natalie Allison , POLITICO’s national political reporter covering Senate campaigns, about what races we should watch, what might shock her and what she’s itching to know right now. This conversation has been edited. What, in your mind, is the Senate race that looks the closest right now? Nevada, based on a series of public polls, appears to be the closest. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican Adam Laxalt are truly locked in a dead-heat. We see the term "margin-of-error race" used for a number of contests right now, but Nevada seems to be legitimately tied. That being said, Georgia is close. Pennsylvania is close. Arizona has become close. And then there are several races where election forecasters seem fairly confident about the outcome (Republicans winning in Ohio, North Carolina and perhaps to a lesser extent Wisconsin; Democrats favored to win in Colorado, Washington and to a lesser extent New Hampshire), but where the polls still show races within just a few points. Election Day is near! So, a lot of states are in play, and some are operating with razor-thin margins. Let’s start with Nevada because you mentioned it looks like the closest — does one candidate seem to have more momentum than the other? What are you seeing in Nevada that might ultimately decide the contest? Yes, the candidates there are neck-and-neck, and some recent polls have shown the Democratic incumbent, Cortez Masto, with a narrow edge. But Nevada is certainly not an exception to the GOP momentum we’re seeing nationwide at the end of the midterm cycle — undecided voters breaking for Republicans, people concerned way more about the daily cost of living than issues that can seem more theoretical, like abortion rights and threats to democracy. Our colleague Elena Schneider traveled to Nevada recently , where progressive Democratic strategist Sean McElwee called it “ground zero” for the party losing working-class voters due to economic issues. What about Georgia? The polls also look close there, but there’s the added possibility of a runoff if neither major-party candidate makes it to 50 percent. What would you say is the likelihood of that? Republican operatives for the last week have sounded pretty bullish about Georgia. The latest Herschel Walker abortion allegation just didn’t seem to stick. Republican voters had already accepted Walker was a flawed candidate, and the race is in many ways a contest of ground game in a purple state that has way fewer swing voters than Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Arizona, etc. The GOP thinks they can avoid a runoff. Meanwhile, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is mobilizing his field operation in Georgia in case there are weeks more of campaigning — a sign that Democrats aren’t exactly expecting a commanding victory next week. As for me, I am keeping my calendar pretty clear through early December. Given that very real possibility — and how long it took Nevada and Pennsylvania to count votes in 2020 — what’s the likelihood that we’ll know who will control the Senate on election night? It seems unlikely! It could take a while to count votes in Arizona and Georgia, too. If you could pick just one race to know the outcome of right now, what would it be and why? Georgia. Pennsylvania is another race that attracted tons of media attention this cycle, but the Walker-Warnock contest is a race that always was close, and if Walker wins, it’s a clear referendum on the Democratic power the state selected in 2020. If Republican Senate nominee Mehmet Oz loses by a little in Pennsylvania, he still will have closed the gap dramatically from where he was this summer. The two candidates in Georgia, though, have spent months trading off the lead and polling within a couple points, so they’ve sustained a really close race. I also want to know if I can plan a vacation for late November. How good of a sign is it for Republicans nationwide if Walker can pull it off? Or is that race just too idiosyncratic to draw larger conclusions? It certainly solidifies the notion that in the post-Trump era, a GOP candidate can run with a hefty load of personal baggage and still attract and keep the conservative vote. But yes, Georgia is a bit different than other battleground states we’re watching, because the pool of undecided voters is much smaller there. It’s going to be about which party can get its people out, and much less about which party is winning over tons of swing voters. A Walker win, though, is not a great sign for Democrats hoping to see a continued purpling of the Southeast after 2020. What’s a sleeper race that people are maybe paying less attention to that’s worth watching? Washington! Polling in that Senate race has really been all over the place, and Democratic Sen. Patty Murray is absolutely favored to win. But some polls have shown Tiffany Smiley making it a close race there at the end, and Murray and her Democratic allies are certainly treating it that way. They kept pouring in millions of dollars in the last couple weeks. So I’m interested to see how close the race actually ends up. And if Smiley is able to pull it out … I would think the Dems are in deep trouble. It would be a very dark sign for Democrats if Murray lost reelection in a solidly blue state President Joe Biden won two years ago by nearly 20 points. But I’ll be shocked if that happens — and I say that as someone who has covered and taken interest in the Washington Senate race when it didn’t seem as close as it is now. Regardless, though, it’s a state Democrats shouldn’t have had to spend much at all in. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on Twitter at @calder_mchugh .
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