POLITICO NIGHTLY: The Monet theory of news cycles

 

View in browser   BY ELANA SCHOR With help from Carmen Paun The U.S. Capitol building. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Image A ‘CLUELESS’ CAPITOL — It’s happened to Republicans and Democrats alike: a seemingly smooth legislative train that goes off the rails. Remember Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) holding up a bipartisan defense policy bill in late 2020? Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho)delaying a 2018 funding bill out of distaste for a home-state park named after a political rival? Or — just Wednesday — an internal House Democratic revolt delaying a $1.5 trillion spending bill by 10 hours. These moments don’t reflect well on the party in power. It’s arguable they could prove an electoral liability, too, by giving political opponents more fodder to argue that voting for the other guy would smooth out the kinks of the Hill’s sausage-making. Not to mention that a Republican Congress, in this case, might prove a valuable check on unified Democratic control. But as shaky as the current government funding deal’s path to passage is so far, the cash will ultimately get approved. Possibly as soon as tonight, if Rand’s shrug today is any guide. Congress’ most conspicuous stumbles matter most when the desired outcome never occurs, not when it’s delayed or snarled — no matter how embarrassing the faceplants look in the short term. Government shutdowns might seem like exceptions to the legislative delays-don’t-matter theory. After all, they hold up workers’ paychecks as well as potentially vital assistance to many Americans. Also, Washington lore holds that they’ve been ruinous to the prospects of the Republicans who’ve pursued them. Even then, though, shutdowns haven’t been fatal to the political prospects of the party that drove them. Let’s take the shutdowns that are etched in our collective memory: 1995’s three-week standoff between then-President Bill Clinton and then-Speaker Newt Gingrich and the 2013 shutdown then-freshman Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) sparked in a bid to stop Obamacare funding. In the 1996 election, after the Gingrich-driven shutdown, Republicans held onto both chambers of Congress even as Clinton was elected to a second term as president. In the 2014 election, after the Cruz-driven shutdown, the GOP picked up 13 House seats and took back control of the Senate. Now, that’s not proof that grabbing control of a legislative train and slamming on the brakes is good politics. House Democrats were already facing a serious challenge this fall staving off a GOP wave, and their last-minute excision of $15 billion in Covid aid from the current spending bill due to intra-party disagreements this week isn’t going to make their midterm problem go away. But it’s not going to make it worse, either. What looks terrible from close up may blur in the long view. Call it the Monet theory of news cycles, for those of you who recall another 1995 milestone (the movie “Clueless”). What moves congressional elections, particularly in midterm years, is often surprisingly disconnected from the nuts-and-bolts of legislation. While funding the government and getting $14 billion in aid to Ukraine is dominating the Capitol this week, it’s the jump in inflation that’s likelier to be on voters’ minds in November. Members of both parties are lining up to decry rising consumer costs, and to debate whether the Russian president or the American one is to blame — but there’s little movement on concrete proposals that would alleviate inflation’s sting. The Democrats talking loudest about taking up specific opportunities to cut inflation, as POLITICO reported this week,are vulnerable incumbents worried about losing their seats. That’s yet another sign that even as spectacularly cockeyed planning on a spending bill grabs headlines, voters’ economic pain will be what matters in November. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at eschor@politico.com , or on Twitter at @eschor.   SUBSCRIBE TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY : Keep up with the latest critical developments from Ukraine and across Europe in our daily newsletter, National Security Daily. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could disrupt the established world order and result in a refugee crisis, increased cyberattacks, rising energy costs and additional disruption to global supply chains. Go inside the top national security and foreign-policymaking shops for insight on the global threats faced by the U.S. and its allies and what actions world leaders are taking to address them. Subscribe today.     WHAT'D I MISS? — Covid aid faces uncertain path on Capitol Hill: White House officials warned that key pandemic programs could soon run out of money if Congress fails to quickly authorize $15.6 billion in new Covid-19 funding . The House on Wednesday stripped the funding from the larger $1.5 trillion spending package after several Democrats objected to paying for the aid with money that had been slated to go to their states under a previous Covid relief bill. But now lawmakers and public health advocates fear that, in doing so, Democrats have made it much easier for Republicans in the Senate to vote against a proposal they’ve been wary of from the start. — DOJ names chief prosecutor for pandemic fraud task force: The Justice Department announced it was tapping Associate Deputy Attorney General Kevin Chambers to lead the department’s pandemic fraud efforts. In a news release, the department said Chambers would focus on “large-scale criminal enterprises” and “foreign actors” who tried to profit off Americans during the Covid-19 pandemic. A sign advises people to wear a mask and stand 6 feet apart as travelers make their way through Miami International Airport. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images — Biden administration extends travel mask mandate past Easter: The Biden administration will extend its travel mask mandate through mid-April as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention crafts new guidance for masking on transportation services . An administration official told POLITICO today that the Transportation Security Administration directive — set to expire this month — will stay in effect through April 18 so the CDC can “work with government agencies to help inform a revised policy framework for when, and under what circumstances, masks should be required in the public transportation corridor.” — Iran nuclear talks close to collapse over Russian demands: The Iran nuclear talks are on the precipice of collapse over last-minute Russian demands for sanctions protection, according to two diplomats . Negotiations have reached an impasse over the Russian requests, diplomats said, imperiling the revival of a 2015 landmark deal under which Iran limited its nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief. Russia is requesting that any return to the agreement include guarantees that any future Russian business with Iran be exempt from EU and U.S. sanctions — a late curveball from Moscow in response to the crippling penalties the country is facing over its invasion of Ukraine. — Collateral damage from war: more supply chain disruptions: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to further disrupt global supply chains just as shipping delays were poised to improve, scrambling the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve’s strategy for fighting inflation along with it. The Fed is set to begin hiking borrowing costs next week in a bid to rein in consumer prices. But central bank policymakers like Chair Jerome Powell had also voiced hope that supply shortages would soon begin to subside, helping them curb inflation without sharply restricting economic activity. Logistics experts were optimistic heading into March, with workers returning to the labor force and filling staffing gaps. — U.S. inflation soared 7.9 percent in past year, a 40-year high: Propelled by surging costs for gas, food and housing, consumer inflation jumped 7.9 percent over the past year, the sharpest spike since 1982 and likely a harbinger of even higher prices to come. The increase reported Thursday by the Labor Department reflected the 12 months ending in February and didn’t include most of the oil and gas price increases that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. Since then, average gas prices nationally have jumped about 62 cents a gallon to $4.32, according to AAA.   DON’T MISS POLITICO’S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE.     NIGHTLY NUMBER Roughly 5 percent The undercount of Hispanic and Latino respondents to the 2020 census. The 2020 census undercounted Black people, Hispanics and Native Americans while overcounting white and Asian people, according to a report released by the Census Bureau today. PARTING WORDS Romanian tanks take part in a joined Romanian-U.S. military drill, on a military base in Smardan, Romania. | Andreea Campeanu/Getty Images A NERVOUS ROMANIA AWAITS HARRIS — Global health reporter Carmen Paun emails Nightly: When I WhatsApped my mom the other day, I floated the idea of going to Romania in the next few weeks so she could meet her youngest grandson. I’m on maternity leave and most Covid restrictions have been lifted, making it easier to travel. She wasn’t excited: “You want to come toward war when people here are fleeing it?” She wasn’t referring to the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians running south to Romania, seeking refuge from Russian bombs. She was talking about Romanians. Since the war started in Ukraine, Romanians’ demand for passports has shot up more than a hundred-fold. When Vice President Kamala Harris lands in Bucharest on Friday, she will find a NATO ally anxious that the war on its doorstep might spill over. Vladimir Putin’s apparent plan to recreate the Soviet sphere of influence that Romania used to be part of has made Romanians prepare for what they’ll do if war breaks out, despite Biden’s promise that the U.S. will defend every inch of NATO territory. “We were joking with your brother that we would hide in the cellar, among the wine carboys,” if there are bombings, my mom told me on WhatsApp, sitting next to my aunt. They both live in a village in Southwest Romania some 60 miles away from NATO’s Deveselu missile base, which Putin has said could be used against Russia. The U.S. has maintained it’s purely defensive. The Romanian government has sought to reassure citizens that the country is safe. “Our NATO allies are with us,” government spokesperson Dan Cărbunaru said Wednesday. Harris’ visit on Friday is meant to highlight that. But Romanians’ distrust of the government runs deep. There have been long lines of cars at gas stations over the past few days, prompted by fears of a gas shortage and a spike in prices. “Gas stations will still have petrol and diesel and as a result there is no reason for the price to explode,” Romania’s Energy Minister Virgil Popescu said today, suggesting misinformation that is part of a “hybrid war” caused drivers to panic. My brother, who lives in England, told my mother and my aunt to pack their bags and go live with him, but my aunt doesn’t want to leave behind her chicken. He has a trip booked for Romania next month, but now he’s thinking twice about going. Rumors that men his age may be drafted in the military like in Ukraine give him pause. He wouldn’t want to default on his mortgage in England, and he has always hated the idea of military service anyway. My kids and I have an annual trip to Romania planned for August, unless a broader war breaks out. But for now, I’m taking my mother’s advice and staying put in my suburban American home. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US

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