This is a long email, but I hope you'll read it

 

Dear MoveOn member,

I'm Amy White, MoveOn's Director of Analytics. I don't write to you often, but in the wake of last week's sickening Republican National Convention, I wanted to reach out to share the details about a program my team is running to put an end to Donald Trump's authoritarianism on November 3.

As the RNC confirmed last week, the GOP strategy to win is to use their billionaire donors to flood battleground states with fearmongering, racist ads and messaging to try to rally their base toward Trump.

We could never match their spending dollar for dollar—but luckily, we don't have to. Because here's the truth: The most effective and impactful campaign strategy is not sending generic, inflammatory messages far and wide, it's actually highly targeted outreach to small groups of voters who are most likely to tip swing states blue.

That's where my team comes in.

We are building models to identify "high-potential voters," with the goal of turning out 100,000 people who would otherwise not vote across the 14 most important battleground states—a goal that, if we're able to achieve it, could clinch the election for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

I'll lay out all the details below, but I need to ask you now: Will you chip in $3 a week to help us power this game-changing, all-or-nothing campaign until the very last vote is counted? (MoveOn will bill your weekly donation to your credit card once a month starting today and will contact you shortly after the election to see if you want to modify or cancel your weekly donation.)

You might be asking: What is a "high-potential voter," and how are you going to reach out to them?

Great questions!

We define "high-potential voters" as being voters and potential voters who fit one or more of these criteria:

• Voters who cast a ballot for Barack Obama in 2012 but did not vote in 2016.
• Voters who cast a ballot for a third-party candidate in recent elections.
• Voters who cast ballots in the 2018 midterms but did not vote in 2016.
• New voters who turned 18 after the 2016 election.
• Naturalized citizens who have become eligible to vote since 2016.
• And in all of these categories, we are focused specifically on younger voters and voters of color.

Through extensive research and statistical modeling, we've found a whopping 7 million voters who fit into these categories spread across the 14 most important battleground states.

Donald Trump is president today because of 10,704 votes in Michigan, 46,765 votes in Pennsylvania, and 22,177 votes in Wisconsin.¹ That means if we can get just over 1% of those 7 million people to cast ballots for the Biden-Harris ticket, Trump will almost certainly lose this time around.

One percent. That's it.

So how are we reaching out to these voters? Using powerful, personalized messaging tailored to each individual voter.

This week, for example, we're testing 18 different messages about the critical importance of defeating Trump to 850,000 voters across the battleground states to learn which messages are most effective at convincing voters to sign "Vote Tripling" pledges—pledges to vote and to help three of their friends or family to vote too.

My team and I will be able to use the data we gather from this test to target the most powerful messages to millions of individual voters based on their location, age, political leanings, and more.

We used a similar method in 2018 to send persuasive videos to potential voters in important districts and states, and in the end, that program helped to secure tens of thousands of votes for Democrats and, in turn, helped to flip control of the House.

This program is even bigger—and far more important given that a second Trump term is on the line.

But it's expensive. We have to purchase thousands of ads, send millions of text messages, create customized videos, and build statistical models—and then do it over and over again through Election Day.

That's where you come in. Can you chip in $3 a week to help us reach millions of high-potential voters with customized messages that are proven to be effective at turning out voters? (MoveOn will bill your weekly donation to your credit card once a month starting today and will contact you shortly after the election to see if you want to modify or cancel your weekly donation.)

The newest polls since last week's RNC show that the race is tightening between Trump and Biden, and although these polls should serve as a shock to the system and a reminder that we have to push as hard as we can over the next nine weeks, my team and I were prepared for them, and we built this program to be effective in exactly this scenario.²

We always knew that this election would be close, and that—just like in 2016—victory could come down to a few thousand votes spread over just a handful of states.

Our high-potential voter program was specifically designed for a close election. That's what makes it special. We are focused on voters who would otherwise stay home on Election Day but who could be the difference between winning and losing on November 3.

I've run the tests. I've seen the numbers. I know this can work.

So I'm asking you now to take any fear or anger or anxiety you're feeling and help me to turn it into action by chipping in $3 a week to power this game-changing program. Will you chip in? (MoveOn will bill your weekly donation to your credit card once a month starting today and will contact you shortly after the election to see if you want to modify or cancel your weekly donation.)

Thanks for all you do.

–Amy White

Sources:

1. "Donald Trump will be president thanks to 80,000 people in three states," The Washington Post, December 1, 2016
https://act.moveon.org/go/137382?t=8&akid=272944%2E3735812%2EAWLiFF

2. "Trump Pulls Closer to Biden After RNC," Morning Consult, August 29, 2020
https://act.moveon.org/go/143454?t=10&akid=272944%2E3735812%2EAWLiFF

Want to support our work? As Robert Reich says, “No organization in America has a better track record of success in developing cutting-edge strategies to get out the vote and win elections than MoveOn.” But it will take each of us doing our part to defeat Trump and flip the Senate!

Will you chip in $3 a week to help MoveOn combat right-wing lies, make sure every vote is counted, and win this election? (MoveOn will bill your weekly donation to your credit card once a month starting today and will contact you shortly after the election to see if you want to modify or cancel your weekly donation.)

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